Will Vladimir Putin’s visit to Türkiye mend Moscow-Ankara ties? Russia-NATO collision in Black Sea

On July 17, Russia declared its exit from the Black Sea Grain Deal with Ukraine brokered by the West and Türkiye to tackle the global food crisis and ensure grain export. Under the Black Sea deal, Asia received 46 per cent of shipments of grains and other foodstuffs, while Western Europe and Africa took 40 per cent and 12 per cent, respectively.

The grain deal crisis occurred shortly after Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited Ankara to meet President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which resulted in a separate agreement entailing military assistance to Kyiv and the return of Azov regiment’s commanders held in Türkiye as a part of the earlier agreement between Ankara and Moscow.

While President Erdogan's commitment to supporting Ukraine marked new paradigms of Ankara's foreign policy after the recent elections, it also triggered schism with Moscow after both capitals enjoyed rosy relations. Erdoğan has played a strategic balancing act over the course of Russia's war.

While broadly condemning the illegality of Putin's invasion and selling Turkish-made drones to Ukrainian forces, Ankara has also emerged as a key route for sanctions avoidance and is keen not to alienate Moscow because of its heavy energy dependence on Russia.

Moreover, Ankara’s avoidance of a public confrontation with Russia may reflect its efforts to maintain its balancing act while working out problems behind closed doors. The Russians hardly sat idle while all these events happened. As such, on August 6, Russian forces struck Ukrainian engine manufacturer Motor Sich, which supplies Türkiye’s internationally famed drone giant Baykar.

The company's TB2 drones have played a critical role in Ukraine's defence against Russian forces. Russia's defence ministry confirmed it had fired warning shots before boarding the Palau-flagged cargo ship that the Ukrainian foreign minister identified as Turkish. Undoubtedly, the strike was a symbolic warning of Moscow over Ankara's continuous support of Kyiv.

Finally, on August 13, Russian forces raided a Ukraine-bound cargo ship owned by a Turkish national and manned by Turkish crew in international waters in the Black Sea, some 50 kilometres off Turkey's coast. Shortly after the incident, Moscow released footage of the raid.

Indeed, Russia’s recent aggressive actions towards civilian shipping in the Black Sea, a potential escalation between NATO and Russia in the region, cannot be ruled out. With the growing tactical losses in Ukraine and international pressure, Russia is gradually losing leverage over the region while its influence is diminishing dramatically.

Therefore, the cut-off of diplomatic ties with Ankara would have grave consequences for isolated Russia in terms of economic and energy partnership. The prolonged silence from the Turkish authorities regarding the Russian intervention with the ship sparked controversy. The reason for the silence could be Vladimir Putin’s upcoming visit to Türkiye upon the invitation of President Erdogan.

The visit would be Putin's first to a NATO country since he ordered tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine in 2022. The visit could be a viable point for diplomatic de-escalation between Ankara-Moscow after the ship incident and Azov fighters.

Notwithstanding the scheduled visit and Russia's frequent seizure of vessels and attacks on ships in the Black Sea, NATO will likely respond by supporting a humanitarian corridor for shipping.

As for now, in response to the Russian attacks on ships, Ukraine showed its willingness to target Russian energy exports with a maritime drone attack on a tanker and declared the waters around Russia's Black Sea ports to be a "war risk area" from August 23. NATO allies are dissatisfied with Russia's decision to terminate the grain deal, accusing it of weaponizing it and igniting the situation more.

The current anticipation is that support from NATO members bordering the Black Sea, namely Türkiye, Romania and Bulgaria, would mean "the Russian Black Sea fleet would be militarily overmatched. With Putin’s visit to Türkiye, Erdogan will try to convince him to return to the grain deal to avoid further escalation in the Black Sea. Despite the current reconciliation with the West, Ankara is reluctant to break up with Russia and keep it at a close distance.

The partnership with Russia has its own dividends, in addition to the risks due to international sanctions. As observers wonder whether Erdogan and Putin will meet in person this month, the two sides will likely find common ground. The war in Ukraine has put the Russian economy into dire straits. Furthermore, both Ankara and Moscow need to scale down their commitments in the Middle Eastern region to focus on other geopolitical issues.