With war next door, Moldova forced to reshape its security outlook Fearing Russia's invasion

The Russian-Ukrainian war amid the global geopolitical changes has prompted former Soviet Union countries to revise their foreign policy guidelines. Moldova has a special place among those countries having set a clear course to the West in recent years. Unlike Armenia, which is trying to play a double game, keeping in tune with both Russia and the West.

Chisinau clearly states its aspiration to become part of the larger European family, and its plans for NATO membership are in line with strong statements: the country eyes becoming a member of the EU by 2030, as well as joining NATO, sacrificing its current neutrality, which excludes the deployment of any armed forces of other States on the territory of Moldova. And while Moldova's neutrality, enshrined in the constitution, was previously seen as an indicator that the country had no formal plans to join NATO or the CSTO, after Russia's war in Ukraine, the Moldovan authorities questioned whether the state's neutral status could guarantee the security of its citizens.

In this regard, back in January this year, President Maia Sandu practically allowed Moldova to give up its neutrality to join the military bloc. By the way, earlier she also expressed interest in support from NATO of reforms in the country and modernisation of the Moldovan army, therefore it is quite reasonable that in January interview with Politico the Moldovan leader stressed the importance of strengthening defence potential exactly in the context of events in Ukraine.

It is clear that Chisinau's intentions to join NATO are causing serious discontent in Moscow. In particular, Russian State Duma deputy Leonid Kalashnikov said in January that Moldova’s NATO aspirations may lead to its destruction. And it is not by chance that he mentioned the Transnistrian factor here. "If Moldova wants to destroy its own state, this is the best way... If they think that, like Finland or Sweden, secretly, quickly, taking advantage of the situation, they can join NATO and that nothing will happen to them for this in their own country, they should remember something else. They [in Moldova] have Transnistria, which is populated by Russian speakers," Kalashnikov warned opaquely.

At the same time, another State Duma deputy Andrei Klimov made an equally threatening statement, declaring that such a position by Moldova could become "suicidal" because "problems in Ukraine began precisely after the abandonment of the existing constitutional neutrality and the official announcement of Kyiv's course to join the anti-Russian NATO military bloc".

The harsh message from the Russian side is most likely a reaction to the position of the Moldovan authorities in withdrawing from the 1992 agreement under which Russian troops were introduced into the self-proclaimed entity. At any rate, the recent calls by President Sandu to withdraw Russian forces from Transnistria already show that the issue is on the political agenda of the country's leadership, which, by the way, could make trouble for Chisinau. The more so that just a day before the Moldovan president's speech, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe first called the presence of Russian peacekeepers in Transnistria an occupation, which stirred predictable outrage in Moscow. The Russian Presidential Council on Inter-Ethnic Relations said that as long as the country was conducting a special operation in Ukraine, it would not withdraw its troops from anywhere. Transnistria itself warned that the withdrawal of Russian troops was fraught with the emergence of a new hotbed in Europe.

However, contrary to Moscow's serious dissatisfaction with Chisinau's position, the Moldovan authorities continue to voice rather bold statements that are completely at odds with Russian policy. This strategy confirms the country's commitment to both Western integration and European values, including freedom of expression, which is one of the main slogans of the Old World. And it is obvious that Moldova is making confident steps in this direction, which is confirmed by the latest annual freedom ranking published by the international organisation Reporters without Borders. According to this ranking, Moldova was ranked 28th out of 180 places, although a year earlier it had occupied the 40th position. Curiously, Ukraine was ranked 79th and Russia only 164th.

On the other hand, Moldova demonstrates its willingness to comply with NATO standards as well, an indicator of which is pumping Western weaponry into the country. Specifically, last month Moldova received a new batch of German Piranha armoured vehicles, and at the same time, the EU allocated €40 million for further purchases of military goods. It is also reported that Germany will transfer a total of 19 units of equipment to Chisinau this year. At the same time, the defence spending of Moldova this year is planned at $87 million, which is 50% more than in 2022. The country's government explains this by the fact that in the context of the Ukrainian conflict "we should think about how to defend ourselves". President Sandu stated: "Our army should be equipped with modern weapons in case we have to defend ourselves".

It should be noted that a couple of years ago, too, the US supplied Chisinau with arms, which drew understandable criticism from Moscow. The Russian media hastily reminded the Moldovan leadership of the neutral status of the state, putting forward this as an argument for violating international rules, after the White House had supplied Moldova with arms worth five million dollars in September 2021 - "to participate in peacekeeping operations".

The military-technical cooperation between the USA and Moldova is sealed with the memorandum "About cooperation in the military sphere between the Ministry of Defence of the Republic of Moldova and the Ministry of Defence of the United States of America" which has been signed on December 4, 1995.

As to the deliveries of NATO armaments, it is quite possible that in such a way the military alliance aims to mark the zone of its interests, minimizing the influence of Russia in the region. By the way, Moldova's rejection of neutrality was first talked about back in 2014, after the well-known mass actions of Ukrainians for the country's European integration. Even then, in connection with the situation in Ukraine, as well as the NATO summit held in Wales, in which Moldova participated for the first time, its politicians started talking about revising the neutral status of the country and amending its constitution. Today that process has actually begun, but the paradox is that it is now Moscow that is unwittingly pushing Chisinau into the arms of the West. Russia has shown by the example of Ukraine that there are no "red lines" for it when it comes to the former Soviet Union. And it is obvious that in this unequal struggle for a politically weak Moldova, a U-turn to the West is the only option for its further existence.