Pashinyan hints at Armenia's parting ways with Russia Analytics by Vestnik Kavkaza

Speaking today on the occasion of the 32nd anniversary of the declaration of independence of the Republic of Armenia, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan elaborated on what independence means for his country. Although the Armenian head of state tried to speak in as general terms as possible, he was almost explicit about Yerevan's need to move away from a too close relationship with Moscow.

Among the list of definitions of independence for Armenia (which included such phrases as "independence is a state mentality, the absence of which squanders sovereignty and security" and "independence is the superiority of law and order") was a direct attack on Russia: "Independence for us is strong allied relations, but allies are not always allies only for us, but also for those who are allied against us".

Here Nikol Pashinyan is referring to Russia's conclusion of a declaration on alliance relations with Azerbaijan, which took place on February 22, during the visit of Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev to Moscow. This is the first time the Armenian prime minister has outlined Yerevan's attitude to this event, and it is clear why it had not happened earlier: in previous months the Armenian authorities had no significant reason to at least utter discontent about the rapprochement between Azerbaijan and Russia, and only in August did this reason appear. Therefore Nikol Pashinyan now feels he can take the liberty to accuse Moscow of "allying against Armenia" with Baku.

It is about the procedures of changing the route of the Lachin corridor, which runs along the Azerbaijani land from the Armenian border to the town of Khankendi in the zone of temporary deployment of Russian peacekeepers in Azerbaijan. Although the renewal of the route, thanks to which the Azerbaijani settlements of Lachin, Zabukh, and Sus come under the full control of Baku, was spelled out in the Trilateral Statement of Russia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia dated November 9-10, 2020, Yerevan has been convincing people legally and illegally remaining in the Lachin corridor for almost two years that there will be no more changes, and they will be able to live on the territory of Azerbaijan without an Azerbaijani passport behind the backs of Russian peacekeepers indefinitely.

However, Russia and Azerbaijan, contrary to these words of the Armenian authorities, jointly implemented point 6 of the Trilateral Statement on an alternative route of the Lachin corridor. Azerbaijan built a new road and carried out a special operation called "Revenge" against the militants entrenched on the old road, while Russia demanded that Armenia fulfil its part of the obligations and prepared to redeploy peacekeepers to the new route. The alliance between Moscow and Baku on this issue is evident. Not a single objection or even a vague hint of objection to the legitimate actions of the Azerbaijani authorities has been received from the Kremlin and the Russian Foreign Ministry during this time.

Of course, it cannot but irritate Yerevan. Armenian foreign policy year after year fails to force the republic's allies to act against Azerbaijan. Armenia is a member of the CSTO, but other members of the CSTO have much closer economic, political and humanitarian ties with Baku than with Yerevan, and every time the Armenian authorities stage a military provocation and demand support from the CSTO, the organization refuses to take their side. Yerevan, for reasons that were not entirely clear, almost counted on the participation of the Russian army in the Patriotic War of Azerbaijan on the Armenian side – however, Vladimir Putin took a balanced stance and did not provide military assistance to Nikol Pashinyan, on the contrary, persuaded him to sign a document on the surrender of Armenia.

Now, after Yerevan had to take all illegal migrants from Lachin, Zabukh, and Sus and force people entitled to Azerbaijani passports to leave, Nikol Pashinyan must have come face to face with the realisation that he cannot present what is happening as Armenia's success. So, he needs to blame someone. Azerbaijan has also had its share of accusations in today's speech, in the words "Independence is about regulated relations with neighbours; although we have brilliant relations with some neighbours, with others there is no significant progress, because they want too high a price from us, or think we want too much." Baku does not want "too high a price", it follows international documents and its obligations, and there is no Azerbaijani fault in the fact that Yerevan "wants too much".

But since Pashinyan is unwilling to admit his own ill-will, his voice joins those Armenian politicians who have been calling for a break in Russian-Armenian relations and a turn towards the West for quite some time now. So far the Armenian Prime Minister has been doing this in general words and hints. But if he has already begun to voice his grievances against Russia out loud, should we not expect Nikol Pashinyan to move on to more specific statements and even more so to programmes for the reorientation of the Armenian state in the foreseeable future?

Andrey Petrov

Vestnik Kavkaza