Counteroffensive of the Ukrainian army Real scenario or red herring?

Reports of an imminent Ukrainian counteroffensive have greatly alarmed Russia's political and military leadership. The stated goals of this counteroffensive are the liberation of all occupied lands, including Crimea, and the return to the 1991 borders. Therefore, Russia took additional measures to strengthen the front line, especially in Crimea. Additional fortifications were erected along the entire coast of Crimea, mining of the coastal strip was carried out, and anti-tank hedgehogs and gouges were installed.

Additional forces and equipment were deployed (up to half a million manpower, tanks, and armoured personnel carriers). Airspace security was strengthened by bringing additional air defence and aviation forces along the entire length of the front. As for the opposing side, according to open sources, several groups with a total number of up to 200 thousand fighters, and hundreds of newly arrived armoured vehicles from NATO countries (Abrams, Leopard, Challenger tanks, and other armoured vehicles) were deployed. It is also reported that Ukraine received several air defence systems and a large number of reconnaissance and combat drones.

According to experts, the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian army should not be expected until May, when the clay soil in the East and South of Ukraine dries up and allows armoured vehicles to advance at maximum speed. So will the counteroffensive announced by Ukraine take place, or is it just a distraction to achieving more modest tactical successes, like the liberation of territories in the Kharkiv region or Kherson? Let's try to understand this issue, through logical reasoning and the help of military experts.

As we know from history, the West, in its confrontation with an enemy of equal strength, has long adopted the tactics of not head-on military confrontation, but rather gradual economic and political strangulation. Basically, the emphasis was on the economic weakening of the enemy with a parallel forcing of military tension along the perimeter of the country chosen as a victim. An example of the successful use of such tactics is the collapse of the Soviet Union. The arms race that exhausted the economy of the USSR, combined with the decline in oil prices on world markets, led to the collapse of the huge, but inflexible country.

After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the West undoubtedly intended to use what it thought would be a win-win tactic. However, the political leadership of Russia upset the West's plans. The successful game in the energy markets, the main factor of which was the unwillingness of Saudi Arabia to increase oil production as “advised” by the United States and its allies, as well as the guaranteed support of China in the Ukrainian adventure, disrupted the smooth course of the far-reaching plans of the Western coalition.

The historical memory of the United States, of course, clearly recorded the Vietnamese hybrid company, where the United States miserably lost its battle to the tandem of the USSR and China. Such a successfully created coalition, supported by high energy prices, of course, could not help but horrify the United States and its allies and introduce its own adjustments to the West's plans for the gradual strangulation of Russia according to the knurled schemes of the Cold War.

In light of the foregoing, the veracity of reports of Ukraine's rapid counteroffensive is becoming increasingly clear. Indirect evidence of this event's reality is the West's accelerated delivery of the most modern military weapons, especially long-range missile systems such as ATACMS (USA), capable of hitting almost all targets in occupied Crimea from the territory of Ukraine.

The Black Sea Fleet also looks vulnerable, which, after the sinking of the flagship cruiser "Moskva" can become very real prey for Poseidon (USA) and Neptune (Ukraine) missiles. Confidence in the fidelity of this strategy was added by a high level of combat readiness and transcendent motivation of the Ukrainian army.

The rush to prepare this counteroffensive, which is crucial for Ukraine and the West, is caused primarily by the fact that Western strategists seek to carry it out before China's assistance begins to arrive in full force.

A prominent military expert, a major in the Azerbaijani Air Force in reserve, Agil Rustamzade exclusively for Caliber.Az commented on the issue: "The ancient Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu said: 'The whole war is based on lies.' Therefore, we will read a lot of messages about certain expected actions of the belligerents. However, my feeling is that Ukraine will accumulate enough resources only by the beginning of the summer. After all, the liberation of Crimea is a rather energy-intensive task. Therefore, those 12 brigades trained in the West should be equipped accordingly for solving such serious tasks. Thus, I believe that the beginning of summer is a more realistic date for the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive."

Summing up, we can say that the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian army does not seem to us to be a red herring. But the imitation by the United States and its allies of violent activity around Taiwan is most likely aimed at diverting the attention and resources of the PRC from the Ukrainian direction and complicates the work of the Russia/PRC tandem on this front. If the goals of the counteroffensive are achieved and the territorial integrity of Ukraine is restored, then the Russia/PRC tandem will actually fall apart, since the vast majority of countries in the world are recognizing Ukraine within the 1991 borders and, thus, Russia’s “territorial conquest” will be cancelled.

One might ask, what about tactical nuclear weapons since Russia has threatened the West many times with its use? Well, the use of it is very problematic. Mainly because it will create a global condemnation of its use as inhumane and will scare away even staunchest allies like China and leave Russia in complete political isolation.