A lesson for Armenian diplomacy Naivety or political posturing?

Armenia believes it's time to establish diplomatic relations with Türkiye, announced the head of the foreign ministry, Ararat Mirzoyan. "Armenia is ready to fully settle relations with Türkiye, establish diplomatic relations, and open borders," he said. Mirzoyan clarified that Armenia and Türkiye have agreements concerning the opening of borders for third-country nationals and diplomatic passport holders.

The statement was expected but not grounded in existing realities. Yes, on June 18, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, during a phone call, acknowledged the political will for complete and unconditional normalization of relations between the countries. They also emphasized the importance of continuing meetings between representatives of Armenia and Türkiye.

Furthermore, Erdoğan, speaking at a parliamentary faction meeting of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), touched upon Armenia's recognition of the state of Palestine. He specifically stated, "We want the conscientious position shown by Norway, Ireland, and Slovenia to serve as an example for all of Europe. We express satisfaction with Armenia's decision under the leadership of respected Prime Minister Pashinyan to recognize the state of Palestine." At first glance, Erdoğan's statement might appear to indicate increasing points of convergence between Ankara and Yerevan.

In reality, things are quite different. Yerevan views the processes of Armenia-Azerbaijan and Armenia-Türkiye as separate and distinct directions. Secretary of the Security Council of Armenia, Armen Grigoryan, stated this during the "APRI 2024" forum titled "Building Tomorrow," commenting on the voiced opinion that Türkiye will not normalize relations with Armenia until Yerevan and Baku reach an agreement.

"We see both processes heading in different directions. There are Armenia-Azerbaijan relations and Armenia-Türkiye relations. We approach them differently. Yes, there may be some interconnection. But our approach is as follows: if you need to solve two complex formulas, and you combine them, finding a solution becomes more difficult. Therefore, they should be separated. Our understanding and approach are that we have two different directions," said Grigoryan.

We face a striking example that could be described as either extreme naivety or intentional deception of their own public. It is worth reminding Ararat Mirzoyan and Armen Grigoryan that there exists the "Shusha Declaration on Allied Relations between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Türkiye," signed by the presidents of Azerbaijan and Türkiye. It clearly emphasizes the need for mutual coordination in regional and international strategic issues of common interest.

But that's not all. "The parties, stressing that Armenia's unfounded claims against Türkiye, attempts to distort history and politicize historical facts through their distortion, harm peace and stability in the region, strongly support the efforts of Türkiye in this context, which has opened its archives in connection with the events of 1915 in order to encourage the opening of archives in Armenia and other countries and enable a research to be conducted on this topic by historians," the Shusha Declaration states.

As we can see, the positions of Baku and Ankara regarding Armenia's unfounded claims are not only identical but also officially and documentarily formalized. This fact alone is sufficient to understand how naive or deliberately deceitful the attempts by representatives of official Yerevan are to present the matter in such a way that Armenia could reach an agreement with Türkiye bypassing Azerbaijan.

No, I understand why such an idea arose among Armenia's leaders in the first place. This country demonstrates remarkable oscillation from one extreme to another. Armenia, advocating for the creation of a Palestinian state, seeks to garner support from the Muslim and Arab world. At the same time, Armenia actively declares its desire to become part of the European Union. Speaker of the National Assembly of Armenia Alen Simonyan stated this during his visit to Latvia. Yet Armenia, continuing its attempts to sit on multiple chairs at once, remains a member of the Eurasian Economic Union, deriving significant economic benefits from this membership.

Given all these vacillations of official Yerevan, one hardly feels surprised by the statements made by its representatives regarding the prospects of Armenian-Turkish relations restoration. However, reality, as it has often been the case, is far away from the hallucinations of official Yerevan. Its representatives should not shake the air, but rather amend the Constitution of Armenia. The issue lies in the Declaration of Independence referenced in the preamble of the current Armenian constitution, which speaks of the 1989 decision "on the unification of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh." This implies that Armenia's current Constitution could provide justification for forces contemplating future territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Furthermore, the Armenian Constitution stipulates that Yerevan will seek recognition of the "Armenian genocide," which entails accusing Türkiye.

It is quite obvious that without amendments to the Constitution of Armenia, there can be no talk of a peace treaty with Azerbaijan or establishment of diplomatic relations with Türkiye. Those in doubt in Yerevan should be reminded of the fate of the "Zurich Protocols," which ultimately marked the failure of the process to normalize Armenian-Turkish relations without considering Azerbaijan's interests. It's worth noting that these protocols were drafted before the Shusha Declaration came into effect, which clearly and specifically outlines the conditions. Therefore, representatives of official Yerevan can talk all they want about their plans, but reality will only materialize after Armenia fulfils all justified demands of Azerbaijan.

By Akbar Hasanov