Armenia and CSTO: Is Moscow turning to harsh measures? There are plenty of ways to rein in Yerevan

It seems that Moscow has decided to seriously address Armenia's openly hostile policy towards the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Recall that Yerevan continues to ignore key events of this organization, accusing it of inefficiency, and periodically threatening to withdraw from the CSTO. Moreover, in February 2024, Armenia's prime minister announced that the republic had frozen its participation in the CSTO and would not contribute to its financing this year. Armenia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs also confirmed that "Armenia will refrain from joining the decision of November 23, 2023, on the CSTO budget for 2024."

Naturally, Moscow's response to Yerevan's actions was expected. Recently, Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Pankin criticized Armenia over the country's financial arrears in the CSTO during the XVII Verona Eurasian Economic Forum.

"Armenia may have a debt in CSTO contributions and could delay payment for two years; currently, there is an outstanding debt for 2024, with the deadline expiring at the end of 2025. Armenia can postpone this debt for two years. After that, appropriate decisions will be made," said Pankin, warning Yerevan.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova, speaking at a weekly briefing, reproached Armenia for its non-payment of contributions and threatened that this could result in Armenia losing its voting rights in the CSTO. "CSTO member states that fail to meet their financial obligations may lose their voting rights," the Russian diplomat stated, specifying that funding for the CSTO is mandatory for all member countries and that the organization's budget is formed through proportional contributions.

"Russia covers half of the CSTO budget, while the other members contribute 10% each," Zakharova added, urging Armenia to take financial responsibility.

From the statements of the Russian side, it is clear that Moscow has no intention of letting Yerevan's adventurous policy go unchallenged. Russia expects Armenia to provide clarity in its foreign policy direction and, consequently, regarding the country's future in the CSTO.

Given Russia's interest in fully resuming partnership with Armenia within the framework of the CSTO, it is most likely that Moscow's "soft pressure" policy on Yerevan will gradually intensify. However, the question is how far Russia is willing to go in its actions and whether it will use its financial and economic tools to pressure Armenia. In any case, experts in Russia do not rule out this possibility.

For example, as stated in an interview with Caliber.Az by Russian expert, journalist, and public figure Dmitry Verkhoturov, Moscow's policy towards Yerevan may go through several intermediate stages. According to him, Russia could deprive Armenia of its voting rights in the CSTO, after which Yerevan itself would initiate the process of leaving the organization.

"In this case, Pashinyan, slamming the door, would announce the beginning of Armenia's exit from the CSTO. However, Russia could take a series of effective economic measures against Armenia as a hostile country. For example, it could cut off energy supplies to Yerevan or revoke certain privileges for Armenian citizens living in Russia. I'll give a concrete example using Abkhazia, which receives electricity and some financial aid from Russia but did not accommodate Russian business. As a result, what happened to Abkhazia? Its residents were left without electricity, and that was justified. The same could be done with Armenia, especially since there are many ways to do this. For instance, Rospotrebnadzor could find harmful substances in Armenian brandy and ban its import. This would be a blow that the Armenian economy could not withstand. This tactic could be applied to any other products, such as juices, beverages, and so on. Figuratively speaking, Russia could also target careless Armenian-origin businessmen with dual citizenship and influence in Moscow.

There are plenty of ways to rein in Armenia to make it rethink and change its policy. On the other hand, Armenia represents a pure loss for Russia, especially in the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine. But, as it seems to me, given the stubbornness of Nikol Pashinyan and his team, it is most likely that the current authorities in Yerevan will make no conclusions and will lead the country to complete collapse, possibly even turning what was once Armenia into a Turkish protectorate," said Verkhoturov.