Armenian obstacle to peace, Trump's role in Ukraine settlement, Georgian election, Assad's fall Caliber.Az weekly review

The editorial team of Caliber.Az presents the latest episode of the program "Sobitiya" (Events) with Murad Abiyev, which covers the week's main news related to Azerbaijan and beyond.

Azerbaijan - Armenia

December 12 – a day of remembrance for the Azerbaijani national leader Heydar Aliyev. On this occasion, President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and First Lady Mehriban Aliyeva visited Heydar Aliyev’s grave at the Alley of Honour. The presidential couple laid a wreath at the tomb.

A living legend of world football, Lionel Messi, visited Baku. The Argentine arrived in the capital along with other famous footballers and clubmates Luis Suárez, Sergio Busquets, and Jordi Alba. The athletes took part in a fan meeting at the Crystal Hall. Children from Baku orphanages, children with disabilities, and the children of martyrs were invited to the event. The funds raised from the ticket sales were donated to charity. Messi and his teammates also visited Heydar Aliyev's grave.

An international conference titled "The Main Obstacle to a Peace Agreement Between Azerbaijan and Armenia" was held in Baku, organized by the Center for Analysis of International Relations. During the event, Azerbaijan’s Deputy Foreign Minister Elnur Mammadov stated that there are two obstacles to peace. One of them is that members of the Armenian delegation hold differing positions at the negotiating table. "The second obstacle is the territorial claims against Azerbaijan in the Constitution of Armenia," Mammadov said.

Two days later, Azerbaijan’s presidential aide Hikmet Hajiyev stated that serious restrictions should be imposed on Armenia’s military build-up policy. He emphasised that such a practice exists in international relations in the context of aggressor and occupying countries. Hajiyev also noted that the European Union’s mission on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border should be concluded, pointing out that this mission was initially planned as a short-term initiative.

Azerbaijan's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Jeyhun Bayramov, reminded that the draft peace agreement includes a preamble and 17 articles. "The texts of the preamble and 15 articles have been fully agreed upon. Negotiations on the remaining two articles are still ongoing. A final agreement has not yet been reached," he said. Bayramov also emphasized that Armenia's Constitution still contains territorial claims against Azerbaijan, and Baku is awaiting decisive steps from Yerevan in this regard.

Thus, throughout the past week, official Baku once again solidified its just demands on Armenia in the pursuit of peace, leaving no room for speculation or conjecture.

To recall, just recently, Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan once again stated that Armenia's Constitution is in order and does not contain territorial claims against its neighbors. Prior to that, he visited Paris for the ceremonial reopening of Notre-Dame de Paris, where he took a photo with Emmanuel Macron and Donald Trump. As we reported on our website, Pashinyan's goal was to ingratiate himself with Trump, hoping to secure the same favourable treatment that Armenia received from the Democratic administration. However, what Pashinyan has achieved in his attempt to get closer to Trump so far is merely a joint photograph.

Georgia

On December 14, Georgia held a presidential election. Unlike previous years, the president was elected by an electoral college of 300 members according to new rules. The opposition, declaring both the parliamentary and presidential elections illegal, did not nominate a candidate and did not participate in the vote. As a result, the only candidate, Mikheil Kavelashvili, a former footballer and a member of the ruling Georgian Dream party, won the election.

Outgoing President Salome Zourabichvili had previously stated that she would not step down until new parliamentary elections were held in the country. Zourabichvili sought her last chance to achieve something through mass protests held on December 14. These protests could potentially involve various provocations that the orchestrators of "orange revolutions" may instigate in order to escalate tensions and create an uncontrollable situation.

Russia - Ukraine

The Russian military continues its offensive in the Donetsk region of Ukraine, having captured several settlements in the Pokrovsk direction, including Kurakhovo. Reports indicate that fighting is now taking place in the suburbs of Pokrovsk.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) launched an attack on a military airfield in Taganrog using American ATACMS missiles. In response, Russia launched a new powerful wave of attacks on Ukraine's energy and military-industrial infrastructure.

At the same time, the elected US President Donald Trump has made statements calling for peace talks, suggesting that Kyiv should not expect significant assistance from Washington. He also stated that American missile strikes deep into Russian territory were a mistake. In apparent contrast, the outgoing President Biden has authorized the transfer of a substantial amount of weaponry to Ukraine over the next five months.

With just over a month remaining until Trump's inauguration, both Moscow and the Biden administration are attempting to create differing conditions for Trump to negotiate.

Middle East

Israel continues its military operation in the Gaza Strip. However, the central event of the past week in the Middle East was the capture of the Syrian capital, Damascus, by fighters from the Islamist militant group Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). This became possible due to the weakening presence of Bashar al-Assad's main backers — Moscow and Tehran. Russia has reduced its presence in Syria due to the war in Ukraine, while Iranian proxies have lost control following powerful Israeli strikes. As a result, the Assad regime has fallen, with Assad reportedly fleeing the country, possibly to Russia.

HTS is led by the young, charismatic leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani. Despite his radical views in the past, al-Jolani now advocates for granting all citizens their rights and freedoms, including the right for women to not cover their heads. It is also known that the new leaders of Syria spent several years honing their governance skills in Idlib, where they had established themselves before marching on Damascus. Now, they face serious challenges, including holding elections, forming a national unity government, and, most importantly, preventing further military escalation in a war-torn country.

Tel Aviv, which saw Assad's fall as beneficial for neutralising the Iranian threat, clearly does not fully trust the new Syrian leadership. Immediately following the rebels' capture of Damascus, Israel began targeting the country's military infrastructure. Moreover, the Israeli army has annexed the remaining part of the Golan Heights.

The course of events suggests that soon the US and Israel may seek to neutralise the remaining centres of Iranian influence in the Arab world, making a new surge in civil wars in Iraq and Yemen highly probable.