Azerbaijan-Türkiye geopolitical axis will intensify more Setting new horizons in the Caucasus

On September 26, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan arrived in the Azerbaijani exclave Nakhchivan to meet his counterpart, President Ilham Aliyev, to reiterate its support to Baku and sign new cooperation agreements for regional infrastructure projects.

Erdogan’s visit came shortly after Azerbaijan announced military over the de-facto Armenian separatist regime in Garabagh region after one-day military actions. While Azerbaijan's military operation caused international criticism, mainly in the West, President Erdogan publicly supported Azerbaijan, referring to the principles of international law about territorial integrity.

As a result of the operation, the de-facto authorities in Khankendi agreed to surrender and dissolve all illegal armed groups per the demand of official Baku. While the news triggered mass riots in Yerevan, more than ten thousand ethnic Armenians of Garabagh started massively leaving the region. Notwithstanding, Azerbaijani authorities promised to provide amnesty to all Armenians who voluntarily hand over weapons and surrender and launch a re-integration process for the ethnic Armenian community.

Consequently, President Erdogan’s visit to Nakhchivan is more than a simple coincidence, as this region is vital for Baku and Ankara. The region has a tiny land border with Türkiye and is supposed to be the main connection point between Türkiye and Azerbaijan once the earlier proposed land corridor starts functioning.

Ankara eyes the direct land connection with its strategic ally, Baku, enabling it to gain access to the Caspian Sea and Central Asian region. Therefore, Türkiye actively invests in various infrastructure projects. In this vein, Aliyev and Erdogan laid the foundation of the long-awaited Igdir-Nakhchivan gas pipeline and inaugurated the modernized Nakhchivan military complex.

Notably, the energy supply required by the Autonomous Republic of Nakhchivan has always been a concern for Azerbaijani authorities. Nakhchivan has no territorial or geographical connection with the main body of the Republic of Azerbaijan, so it needs to use Iran’s energy infrastructure to transport gas to Nakhchivan, as Iran was one of Azerbaijan’s options for supplying gas to the region.

As such, in 2020, Türkiye’s state gas grid operator Botaş opened a tender for a gas pipeline to supply Azerbaijan's exclave of Nakhchivan in an attempt to sideline Iranian gas sales to Azerbaijan. The proposed pipeline runs around 80 kilometres from the eastern Turkish city of Iğdır to the border with Nakhchivan, capable of carrying up to about 2 billion cubic meters of gas, which is more than four times the enclave's consumption.

Prior to the new agreement, Iran supplied 85 per cent of that volume to Nakhchivan, which fully met the demands of the region. However, unstable relations between Baku and Tehran amid the recent diplomatic confrontation apparently pushed Baku to find a more reliable solution to decrease dependence on Iranian gas. In this regard, the new Igdir-Nakhchivan pipeline is strategically crucial for Azerbaijan.

Türkiye welcomes pipelines that pass through its territory and enjoys both the right of transit and the geopolitical benefits of oil and gas pipelines, such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and the Southern Gas Corridor project enabling it to play a crucial role and energy gateway of Europe.

Indeed, in the post-war period, the Türkiye-Azerbaijan partnership reached new strategic milestones in energy and military fields, whereas the former's significance for Europe, the Middle East and Caucasia in terms of commerce and logistics has increased.

Considering its ambition of expanding influence, Ankara will further embark on joint projects with Baku, particularly in the reconstruction process of the Garabagh region and attempts to establish a land corridor as an economic and trade route on the west-east axis for the Azerbaijani people.

Nevertheless, after three years of negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia, both sides did not reach a consensus regarding the project. Instead, Azerbaijan sought alternative routes of connection with Türkiye, such as the Southern Aras corridor via Iranian territories.

In addition to the gas pipeline, both leaders also inked a protocol of intent on the Kars-Nakhchivan railway, which the state media praised as a historical moment. With Azerbaijan fully recovering its territorial integrity as a result of the military operation, the Baku-Ankara axis will intensify, opening new horizons for interregional partnership in the South Caucasus region.