Belarus: between sanctions, prisoner swaps and backchannel diplomacy Analysis by Limansky

Minsk is releasing convicted Polish citizens, while U.S. presidential envoy John Coale is urging the Polish president to engage in dialogue. Against the backdrop of a military confrontation that is increasingly spreading across the world, Belarus consistently maintains the opposite — peace-oriented — course. Will this position find understanding in the West? 

Special envoy and the president

U.S. presidential envoy for Belarus John Coale and Polish President Karol Nawrocki met in Warsaw on April 27. The content of the discussion has not been disclosed — the Polish presidential office released only a brief statement. However, according to Myśl Polska, the United States may be exerting pressure on the Polish president, encouraging him to engage in dialogue with Belarus.

There is a significant political confrontation between the conservative, pro-American President Nawrocki and the liberal, pro-European Prime Minister Donald Tusk. However, in their unfriendly stance toward Belarus, both politicians have, until recently, appeared largely aligned.

In the photograph from the meeting published by the Polish president’s office, several other individuals are present alongside Coale and Nawrocki. The man sitting with his back to the camera appears to be Christopher Smith, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State for Eastern European Affairs, a graduate of the U.S. Naval War College with a specialisation in national security.

Some analysts believe that Chris Smith plays an important role in shaping the framework of the current negotiations between the United States and Belarus. Smith is known as an experienced negotiator. For example, in February 2024, he carried out a successful mediation mission between Chisinau and Tiraspol.

The following day, John Coale also held a meeting with Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski.

Exchange in the Białowieża forest

On April 28, an exchange of prisoners took place on the Polish–Belarusian border at the “Pererov” checkpoint, following a 5-for-5 formula. The exchange was organised under the direct instruction and personal supervision of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.

Among those released by the Polish side were Belarusian intelligence officer Vladislav Nadeyko, former deputy head of Moldova’s Security and Intelligence Service (SIS) Alexandru Balan, Russian archaeologist Alexander Butyagin, and Moldovan citizen Nina Popova.

On the Belarusian side, those handed over included pro-Polish activist from Grodno Andrzej (Andrey) Poczobut, Polish citizens Grzegorz Gawel and Tomasz Beroza, who had been convicted in Belarus on espionage charges, as well as two Moldovan SIS officers detained in Russia. The group released on Polish territory was met by Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

The U.S. special envoy for Belarus, John Coale, highlighted the personal involvement of U.S. President Donald Trump in the exchange, writing on his X account: “We thank Poland, Moldova, and Romania for their invaluable support in this effort, as well as President Lukashenka’s willingness to pursue constructive engagement with the United States.”

U.S. Ambassador to Poland Tom Rose described the prisoner exchange as a “truly historic day.”

Recently, Poland has pursued a notably assertive policy toward Belarus. This time, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski stated: “The release of Poczobut is also a signal to the EU in favor of greater commitment to progress, amnesty, and European security in Belarus.”

According to Lukashenko, Andrzej Poczobut was originally expected to be released in the autumn of 2025. However, according to the head of the Belarusian state, the exchange was then derailed due to the Polish side, which joined Lithuania’s unfriendly actions toward Belarus. Activists of the Union of Poles in Belarus, detained together with Poczobut in 2021, were released earlier.

Since the beginning of 2026, 286 people have been pardoned in Belarus by decree of Lukashenko.

However, not all parties welcomed the deal. Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi expressed regret over the release of Russian archaeologist Alexander Butyagin, who is accused of illegal excavations in Crimea.

“So far we trust each other…”

The U.S. administration and special envoy John Coale plan to continue active negotiations with Belarus. At a press conference at the Polish Foreign Ministry in Warsaw, the envoy stated that he intends to travel to Minsk in “two to three weeks.” Coale expressed hope of securing the release of another group of prisoners, hinting that this could pave the way for further easing of sanctions against Belarus. At the same time, he emphasised that sanctions were not discussed during the latest exchange.

In an interview with Reuters, John Coale said that he had “built trust with Lukashenko.” But why would a global superpower suddenly seek to improve relations with Belarus?

As can be inferred from Coale’s remarks, the United States has indicated it sees value in engaging Lukashenko because of his close ties to Putin, and also views some of Lukashenko’s proposals for resolving the Russia–Ukraine conflict as constructive.

“So far we trust each other and... if one feels that the other swayed off course, we work it out,” Coale said.

Almost sensationally, the U.S. special envoy for President Trump also stated that Lukashenko wants Belarus to become a “member of the family of nations in Europe.” However, in essence, there is nothing unusual in this: Belarus has historically not avoided cooperation and good-neighbourly relations, including with EU states. Nor was it the side that initiated the deterioration of relations or the introduction of unilateral sanctions.

John Coale also said that discussions are ongoing regarding a potential visit by Alexander Lukashenko to the United States, as well as the possible reopening of the U.S. embassy in Minsk.

“All those things are on the table ... and I'm optimistic ​that they can happen,” the Trump envoy stated.

Trump’s special envoy and the preachers

John Coale’s next visit to Belarus could take place as early as May 16–17. On those dates, the “Festival of Hope,” a Protestant event, is scheduled to be held in Minsk. The gathering at the Chizhovka Arena is expected to be large-scale: the combined Protestant choir from 42 Belarusian cities alone is set to include around 1,300 participants. Musicians from the United States, among others, will also perform in the spirit of “charismatic churches.”

The festival is being organised by two Protestant denominations — the Evangelical Christian Baptists and the Union of Baptists. The main figure of the event will be Franklin Graham, one of America’s most prominent preachers and the son of the world-renowned evangelist Billy Graham. Franklin Graham has repeatedly met with Donald Trump and delivered a prayer at his second inauguration. John Coale refers to this influential Baptist pastor as a close friend. Coale’s wife, Greta Van Susteren, has also long cooperated with the Graham Foundation as a journalist.

Franklin Graham has been closely following the talks between Trump’s special envoy and Alexander Lukashenko. In December 2025, he wrote on his page: “I hope to be able to preach the Gospel in Belarus one day.”

On April 30, at a meeting in Minsk, Lukashenko warned regulatory authorities against excessive harshness in their work: “People want to live freely in their own country… We must crack down mercilessly on bribe-takers, fraudsters, swindlers, and those who seek to destroy the country. There can be no forgiveness here whatsoever. But going around and sweeping everyone indiscriminately — those who should and should not be targeted — is absolutely unacceptable.”

However, it is still too early to speak of any substantial de-escalation in the region — tensions continue to rise. Recently, former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba stated that part of the territory of present-day Belarus had historical ties to the Kyivan Rus’, and therefore Ukraine could potentially lay claim to these lands.

This statement has even raised concern in Poland: if “hawks” in Kyiv begin making claims to Belarusian territory, they could also extend territorial claims to parts of Poland.

During the visit of then–U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Kyiv in 2022, Kuleba had already shown him a map of a so-called “Greater Ukraine,” which, among other areas, included part of present-day southeastern Poland.

On April 27, Europe saw the start of the latest Sword 26 exercises, which simulate a potential military confrontation with Russia and Belarus. The drills are taking place in the Baltic region and the Arctic zone. Around 15,000 troops are participating, including forces from the United States, Poland, Germany, Sweden, Norway, Italy, Finland, Lithuania, and Estonia. Among other elements, the exercises are expected to include the use of military AI models.

However, against the backdrop of unprecedented militarisation in Europe, Belarus’s foreign policy remains unchanged — focused on resolving disputed issues through peaceful negotiations and the consideration of mutual interests.