Georgia and Trump: Uncertainty surrounds future relations Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

The possibility of early parliamentary elections in Georgia, amid ongoing opposition protests, has been ruled out. Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze made this clear, stating, "You know what the opposition demands, primarily early elections. However, I would like to remind everyone that the elections are scheduled for October 2028." He emphasized that preparations should be made for elections on that date. Additionally, Kobakhidze advised the opposition to focus on local elections set for the fall of 2025, saying, "This is my advice to the radical opposition—they can try their luck there."

The question arises whether it is now too late for the opposition to demand new parliamentary elections. Perhaps it would be wiser for the protesters to accept the current reality, especially considering that Donald Trump has been elected as president of the United States. His views align more closely with those of the Georgian Dream party than with the Georgian opposition. Given this, it seems unlikely that the new Western leader would seek to destabilize Georgia, particularly when more pressing global issues require immediate attention.

This situation has been analyzed by prominent foreign experts, in discussions with Caliber.Az.

Russian political scientist and Director of the Center for Strategic Studies of the South Caucasus, Yevgeny Mikhailov, noted that the situation in Georgia is currently quite complex. It seems to have come to a standstill.

"Yes, the ruling party Georgian Dream has clearly won the parliamentary elections, but municipal elections are still ahead. It is obvious that opposition parties will not be part of the government; they will not be integrated into the country's administration. They are waiting for their time. If the Georgian leadership does not show flexibility now, does not demonstrate to the people how it envisions Georgia's development, people may become disillusioned with this party, because the Georgian Dream won by a narrow margin. It is far from certain that this party will be able to win the municipal elections in Tbilisi. If opposition members dominate the municipal authorities in the capital, then again, there can be no talk of unity in power or the development of the country," the researcher predicts.

He currently believes that the Georgian authorities are primarily focused on the evolving relationship between the United States and the Russian Federation.

"Once that situation unfolds, they will decide how to shape their own relations and whether to lean more towards the West or Russia. Small states, of course, try to manoeuvre between these powers. At present, Georgians are primarily concerned with safeguarding their national interests. However, Western partners are not idle either. It is worth noting that the Georgian leadership enjoys strong relations with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who is a close ally of Donald Trump. Through Orban, Georgia could establish effective communication with Trump's team."

At the same time, it must be understood that the United States is distant from Georgia, while Russia is close. Ultimately, everything depends on how the United States acts. This is clear because Georgians do not want the sanctions that the U.S. and Europe are gradually imposing on the leaders of the Georgian Dream party. While many are unhappy about this, they are enduring it and waiting. Given the external challenges and other threats the United States is facing, I believe Washington is unlikely to exert significant influence over the situation in Georgia," says the director of the centre.

He suggests that Europe may continue to support the opposition out of principle.

"Take France, for example, where destabilizing Russia is seen as crucial. Similarly, Germany has its own interests in play. On the other hand, USAID, likely following Trump’s directives, has suspended financial support for the Georgian opposition, which is notable. However, this suspension is only for 90 days.

Additionally, Trump has allocated 100 days to his representative to address the Ukrainian issue, and this is why everything has come to a standstill. In Georgia and other countries, we will see how events unfold over the next 100 days, the time Trump has set aside to resolve the Ukrainian conflict," Mikhailov believes.

Political scientist, Director of the Center for Islamic Studies of the Caucasus, and expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Shota Apkhaidze, stated that the leadership of the Georgian Dream, particularly Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze, has a clearly defined stance.

"And no one plans (this is the general position of the country's leadership and the ruling party) to hold early elections. This statement also indicates that Kobakhidze's decision is firm and will not change. No re-elections are being planned. This is the position of the Georgian Dream.”

However, Apkhaidze believes it is still premature to assert that the opposition has no further chances, as tensions remain high, and societal polarization is deep and significant. The opposition has its electorate, and this cannot be ignored.

"I believe their actions will continue, and calls for new elections will persist. While the opposition may adjust its demands and introduce new issues, its actions are far from over. Currently, about 30-40% of the politically active segment of society aligns with the opposition. Among the protesters, there are individuals not directly tied to the opposition, primarily younger people, whose demands differ significantly. The opposition has its own agenda, while the young protesters have theirs. Some are opposed to the Georgian Dream and the current leadership, while others advocate for European integration and Euro-Atlanticism. There are also those with social, economic, and other demands," the expert explained.

He believes the opposition will certainly gain votes in the local elections.

"After all, they received a significant number of votes in the parliamentary elections. However, opposition parties might even consider boycotting the local elections altogether, as they are dissatisfied with the current situation where Georgian Dream holds a majority in the municipalities. In other words, they want to form the leadership themselves and fully control the political processes, both domestically and internationally."

He warns, however, that with such demands, the protesters risk marginalizing themselves and turning their protests into something incoherent and absurd. "This could happen," the centre's director cautioned.

Regarding Trump’s position, he notes that the landscape of American politics is indeed shifting.

"The ideological factor there is very strong. Trump has a more conservative platform. He has this image—he claims that there are only two genders, he calls for negotiations in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and in a way, he is completely changing America's foreign policy. But his approaches are simply different. That said, Trump will not abandon long-term geopolitical plans.

We don’t yet know what Trump's position on Georgia will be. We know his global stance on regional powers, but we don’t know what he will do concerning Georgia. America doesn’t want to lose Georgia, just like it doesn’t want to lose the entire region. America wants to remain here, and Trump is no exception. The main factor is the position of the 'deep state' and America's geopolitical strategy. So, in this case, it’s unlikely that Trump will directly support the Georgian Dream.

Trump and other Western leaders are not tasked with saving the world or doing something for the sake of justice. They pursue the interests of transnational corporations and everything that serves the interests of the West. As for saving someone or solving global or local problems, they aren’t interested in that," concludes Apkhaidze.