Ghost of OSCE Minsk Group in Armenian dreams

Even after [Russian] Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's departure from Baku, Armenia sees the shadow of the memorable Minsk Group here and there. And it is even planned to communicate with this ghost. There is a very clear feeling that a peaceful settlement in the South Caucasus is acquiring all the signs of [Russian writer Anton] Chekhov's Ward No. 6, where one of the parties to the dialogue sees what is not in principle. And it's not worth being ironic about this – the situation is serious, and such games turn the negotiation process into a farce, bringing it to a dead end. 

The symptoms, in any case, are obvious. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, for example, found the remark of Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov about the termination of the activities of the OSCE Minsk Group "strange". According to Pashinyan, such a contradiction should be clarified "by Lavrov himself". As an argument, Pashinyan cites at a press conference [on June 27] the agreements signed with Moscow on April 19, 2022, which state that "the parties should use the potential and experience of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairmanship institute in accordance with its international mandate".

Moreover, Armenia constantly raises this topic on the negotiation tracks, clearly trying to revive the deceased "mediation group". At the same time, Yerevan demonstrates deafness, allegedly not hearing the Azerbaijani president's repeated statements about the utter futility of mediation from the OSCE Minsk Group and even his last "goodbye" to the mission.

It remains to be amazed how Armenia refuses to see or hear Moscow's repeated statements about the group's demise, displaying either genuine or fake (also, by the way, symptoms of Ward No. 6) misunderstanding of the geopolitical situation in the region and around the world. But it is well known that due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the West flatly refused to cooperate with Moscow in any mediation peacekeeping groups, and ceased to perceive it as a full-fledged dialogue partner. Everything has fallen into tatters and will not return at least until the Kremlin stops the fratricidal war with the Ukrainians.

Moscow, by the way, also clearly stated the impossibility of cooperation with the United States and France within the framework of the Minsk Group. However, let's start again from the scratch. Here I just want to tag Armenia in the text in order to eliminate - for clarity - the consequences of the sclerotic syndrome in Yerevan.

By the way, if Armenian politicians have forgotten, on April 15, the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Mariya Zakharova, said at a briefing that the Russian ambassador for special assignments, OSCE Minsk Group co-chair, Igor Khovayev, will continue his work in a new capacity.

"Let me remind you that on February 24, Washington and Paris suspended all contacts with Moscow as part of the troika of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs. Meanwhile, the reality in the South Caucasus does not allow for pauses in negotiations. In this regard, Ambassador-at-Large Khovayev will continue his work as the Russian foreign minister's special representative in promoting the normalisation of relations between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia. The focus of his attention will be on the preparation of the aforementioned peace treaty," Zakharova explained clearly at the time.

Another thing is that Khovayev's new mission went badly, in fact, setting an example of political devaluation. After the meeting between the Azerbaijani president and Moscow's special representative, it became clear that the Russian envoy to Baku had nothing to offer in this format. And after that, we heard nothing more about Khovayev.

Nonetheless, Armenia continues to seek an international mediator in the form of a non-existent group. Well, it wants to - and that's it, stomping foot like a naughty baby, defying all logic. Thus, Yerevan imitates "political schizophrenia" attacks plunging headlong into them. And clearly when it is advantageous to it.

Let's assume that Armenia starts talking about the OSCE Minsk Group mainly when it wants to "take a break" from Brussels. Or rather, when they let it know that it's time to "rest". And here it is worth touching on the role that Russia plays in the ceremony of summoning the ghost of the OSCE Minsk Group.

It's difficult not to notice that Moscow is eagerly following Yerevan's lead, clearly not attempting to bring him down from heaven when he dreams about the Minsk Group again. And in this sense, Pashinyan is partly right, even if he is feigning perplexity about Lavrov's statements in Baku and referring to the agreement signed in Moscow. Logically, Moscow was either playing tricks with Yerevan or manipulated the agreements by mentioning the "potential and experience of the OSCE Minsk Group" in a document dated April 19, 2022, while four days earlier, on April 15, Mariya Zakharova had already announced the abolition of the Minsk Group and the new mission of Khovayev.

Who is here, I beg your pardon, a simpleton? Or maybe it's a joint game of Yerevan and Moscow to slow down the process of peace agreements?

The feeling is that this is most likely the case. Moscow is playing games on the call of the "ghost of the OSCE" with Yerevan. And recently it has been clearly supplying Armenia with appropriate installations, recommending, in particular, temporarily moving away from the active dynamics of the negotiation process launched through Brussels, which is alien and undesirable for Russia. Well, to pull the wool in the eyes, they put on the performance to revive the OSCE Minsk Group. Obviously, it's easier to stop negotiations this way, which confirms, by the way, one of Pashinyan's recent statements that Azerbaijan allegedly refused to take part in the meeting of the parties, which, as he claims, was to be held on June 27 in Brussels. According to Pashinyan, Armenian Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan was supposed to attend the meeting from the Armenian side, and Azerbaijani presidential aide [Hikmat Hajiyev] from the Azerbaijani side. Pashinyan obviously wants to say something: either such a meeting was not planned at all, or it was planned, but Yerevan again put forward unacceptable conditions, provoking Baku to refuse.

What can we do, this time the fog of reason lasts for a very long time - remember how frequently politicians in Yerevan have brought this up in the last month and a half? Even at a press conference following Lavrov's visit to Yerevan, they were able to reach an agreement on cooperation with the OSCE Minsk Group. However, it is worth noting that when Armenian Foreign Minister Mirzoyan was spewing nonsense about the Minsk Group, Lavrov, who was standing next to him, did not attempt to persuade him.

And now the question is, what or who will become a new way of negotiating red tape from Moscow and Yerevan now that the dispute with the OSCE Minsk Group has progressed to the point where Lavrov personally scattered the ashes of the OSCE during his visit to Baku? Maybe Khovayev, the long-merged special representative?

Unless, as revealed today, Russian co-chairman Igor Khovayev declined an invitation to discuss the "future of Karabakh". This is according to a tweet from the US State Department's Bureau for European and Eurasian Affairs. It is also clarified that previously, the US co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group met with colleagues to discuss the fate of Karabakh, but the dialogue did not work out.