Is Armenia bracing for a new conflict with Azerbaijan by boosting defence? Deep dive into the “country of stones”

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan continues to amaze with his “eloquence” and tricking arguments, even, it would seem, when discussing topics that seemingly do not require such techniques.

During his speech discussing the country’s 2025 state budget in parliament, he outlined the concepts underlying the main financial document of the country. These include: “Armenia is my hearth, the people are my family; Enrich yourself and enrich others; The future of Armenia depends on one person, and that person is you; The homeland is the country; if you love your homeland, strengthen your country; Here is the Motherland, here is bread, here is life.” According to him, these theses not only form the basis of next year's budget but should also be foundational for overall budget planning.

Upon closer examination, one might discern a hint of maximal entrepreneurial freedom, alongside a seemingly contradictory call to pay higher taxes. However, let's leave that discussion to the economists. What we find more interesting is a specific part of Armenia’s budget that cannot be hidden, and no one is trying to disguise it behind the prime minister’s complex rhetoric.

During the aforementioned discussion, the Minister of Finance, Vahe Hovhannisyan, announced that defence spending in Armenia will increase by 20% in 2025, reaching 664 billion drams (approximately $1.71 billion). He added that military expenditures will account for 6% of GDP, which is an increase of 0.7% compared to 2024. The minister also noted that 55.8% of capital budget expenditures will be allocated to the defence sector.

The news is interesting but not surprising, considering the expanding military-technical cooperation between Armenia and countries like the United States, France, and India, which has been detailed in multiple publications by Caliber.Az.

In Azerbaijan, few held out hope for a change in the ideological direction of the "country of stones." This was also mentioned by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.

"Revengeful forces are raising their head in Armenia. These are not only marginal political elements. Today's Armenian government lives with these ideas and fantasies as well. They do not want to come to terms with the results of the Second Karabakh War and the anti-terror operation. Although they are saying one thing, their work, policies and steps create a completely opposite picture," President Aliyev emphasised in his address to the first session of the seventh convocation of Milli Majlis (Parliament) of Azerbaijan.

Indeed, the picture is far from peaceful. To begin with, Armenia does not agree to the de jure cessation of the activities of the OSCE Minsk Group. This indicates that Yerevan still considers the "Nagorno-Karabakh" conflict unresolved and hopes for the revival of this group to renew its claims on Karabakh, initially under the guise of "returning and ensuring the rights of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh," followed by establishing a "special status" for them, in order to later raise the issue of secession to justify future aggression against Azerbaijan.

Furthermore, Armenia refuses to implement constitutional reform, meaning it will not amend the text of the country's constitution to remove provisions that contain territorial claims against Azerbaijan.

Finally, as is mentioned at the beginning of the article, Armenia continues to increase its military budget.

Given these actions, there is little hope that Yerevan genuinely seeks peace. Everything points to a gradual and systematic movement towards renewing territorial claims against Azerbaijan, both in legislation and in practice.

For some reason, Yerevan fails to recognize that for every dollar spent on military needs, Azerbaijan will spend at least two, and under these conditions, Armenia has no chance of catching up militarily, let alone defeating Azerbaijan on the battlefield.

Perhaps Yerevan hopes for a shift in international political circumstances that would make victory over Azerbaijan an easy task. However, the Armenian side forgets that Azerbaijan is strong not only in military matters but also in international politics and diplomacy. It was the superiority in strategic thinking that ultimately determined Azerbaijan's victory in the Karabakh conflict. This victory demonstrated that any success Armenia may have against Azerbaijan is situational and fleeting, while Azerbaijan's triumph is inevitable and aligned with the internal logic of Azerbaijan’s statehood development.