Pakistani PM's Baku visit, Trump-Zelenskyy diplomatic clash, and German centre-right bloc's election win Weekly review by Caliber.Az

Caliber.Az has prepared another episode of “Events” (“Sobitiya”) show with Azerbaijani political analyst Murad Abiyev, which covers the main news of the week related to Azerbaijan and other countries.

Azerbaijan - Armenia

On February 24, Pakistan's Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif paid a state visit to Azerbaijan. Following the meeting, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister Sharif made joint statements to the press. President Aliyev emphasised the strong fraternal ties between Azerbaijan and Pakistan, highlighting their strategic importance and mutual support on the international stage.

He specifically underscored the need to boost trade turnover between the two countries, revealing Azerbaijan’s plans to invest $2 billion into Pakistan’s economy. Additionally, the discussions covered cooperation in the defence sector, joint production of military equipment, and the development of transport infrastructure. Sharif thanked Azerbaijan for its support and emphasised the alignment of the two countries' positions on international issues. He reaffirmed Pakistan’s commitment to enhancing trade and economic relations, expressing hope that investment agreements would be signed as early as April.

Sharif also highlighted the importance of cooperation in the defence industry and logistics, stressing that the international infrastructure corridor project initiated by Azerbaijan holds immense significance for the region. On February 27, President of Guinea-Bissau Umaro Sissoco Embaló paid an official visit to Baku. The leaders of Azerbaijan and Guinea-Bissau highlighted the brotherly nature of their relations and agreed to strengthen cooperation in international organisations, including the United Nations (UN), Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), and the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM).

Special attention was given to economic and investment projects. Defence and security cooperation emerged as a key topic of discussions. The visit of the Guinea-Bissau president marks an elevated level of collaboration between Azerbaijan and countries of the African continent. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met in Ankara with Hikmet Hajiyev, Assistant to the President of Azerbaijan and Head of the Foreign Policy Affairs Department of the Presidential Administration. This meeting highlights the strengthening strategic alliance between the two countries, with opportunities for collaboration spanning regions from the Middle East to Central Asia. 

Ukraine - Russia

Russia continues its offensive in the Donetsk region. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have managed to repel the Russian troops' advance near Pokrovsk. Russia has carried out a series of massive drone attacks on Ukrainian cities, including strikes on energy infrastructure. Tensions surrounding the diplomatic resolution of the conflict escalated throughout the week. In Kyiv, a summit of European leaders from Ukraine's partner countries took place, where they pledged to allocate three and a half billion euros in support.

Meanwhile, Putin gave an interview in which he highlighted Russia's interest in attracting American businesses for the development of Russia's rare earth metals and aluminum, further advancing the narrative of complete understanding with the new US administration. Meanwhile, Trump received French President Emmanuel Macron and UK’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer at the White House one after another, but no agreements were reached with either of them. The climax of this diplomatic parade came with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's visit to Washington, where the two sides were expected to sign a deal on Ukraine's rare earth metals, which would also include a fund for the country's reconstruction. 

However, the signing did not take place. Zelenskyy left the US capital prematurely after a major scandal erupted between him and Trump’s team, with the entire world watching the confrontation live. Trump insisted on signing a deal with the US as a document that would help Ukraine end the war honourably. However, Zelenskyy pushed for more clearly defined security guarantees from the US. The Ukrainian president also expressed doubts about the effectiveness of America's diplomatic efforts. In response, Trump sharply reprimanded Zelenskyy, accusing him of mismanagement, ingratitude, and disrespect toward the US. The situation was further inflamed by Vice President JD Vance, who reminded Zelenskyy that he had visited the US last October to support the Democrats in their election campaign. The negotiations ultimately turned into a public reprimand of the Ukrainian leader. 

Zelenskyy, in turn, decided not to discuss the agreement under such humiliating circumstances and left without signing anything. In Trump's words, Kyiv must either reach an agreement with Washington or continue fighting without US support. It seems Zelenskyy has chosen the latter. Now, to enter negotiations with Russia from a position of strength, he will need to achieve something impressive on the front lines. Time is running out, as American aid will dwindle, and Europeans tend to prefer offering words rather than tangible support. However, in a world that’s changing at the speed of light, it's possible we might witness some major surprises. 

Middle East

Israel and Hamas exchanged the remains of four Israeli hostages for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, maintaining the fragile ceasefire that was on the brink of collapse. This exchange marks the end of the first phase of the agreement on hostage release and the ceasefire in Gaza. However, the situation is far from straightforward. According to the first phase of the agreement, Israel was supposed to withdraw its troops from the border area between Gaza and Egypt, known as the Philadelphi Corridor.

However, the Israeli military has stated that it will not withdraw and will continue to guard the area as a buffer zone. In response, Hamas has pointed out that this constitutes a clear violation of the ceasefire. Negotiators in Cairo reportedly failed to convince Israeli authorities to move forward with discussions on the second phase of the agreement. As of now, it is known that Israel and Hamas are repositioning their military forces in preparation for the possible resumption of hostilities.

At the same time, Israel deployed tanks to the West Bank, where the scope of its operation is expanding. Concurrently, Israel has decided to solidify its presence in Syria. The Israeli Air Force carried out strikes on military targets in southern Syria in response to attempts by the new Syrian authorities to seize positions and outposts in this border area, citing the need to protect the Druze people living in the region. 

Türkiye

After 40 years of terrorist warfare against Türkiye, Abdullah Öcalan, the leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), who is incarcerated in a Turkish prison, has called for the disbandment of the PKK and for peace. In response, PKK representatives heeded their leader's call and announced a ceasefire. These developments are the result of effective actions by Ankara, which has, on one hand, worked to establish dialogue with the country's Kurdish community, while on the other, taking decisive military measures against the terrorists. 

Germany

Germany held snap parliamentary elections, in which, as expected, the centre-right alliance of two political parties CDU/CSU led by Friedrich Merz emerged victorious and will form the government. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) came in second, securing 20.8 per cent of the vote, marking its best result in history. As a result, the party is set to nearly double its representation in the Bundestag.

The Social Democrats (SPD), led by Olaf Scholz, finished in third place with their worst result to date, garnering just 16.4 per cent of the vote and losing nearly half of their seats in the Bundestag. Despite this heavy defeat, the SPD still has a chance to remain in the government, albeit no longer in a leading role. Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democrats, has proposed the SPD to form a coalition government. 

Merz, known for his support of private business, is seen as a potential savior for Germany's struggling economy. While the right-wing populists may not enter the government, their significant gain—doubling their seats in parliament—will still allow them to influence public sentiment in Germany and beyond. Many observers believe that the growing power of the far-right will lead to a decrease in migration to Germany, as fears over the increasing influence of extremist forces take hold.