President Aliyev's firm stance on peace deal, Kyiv's Western backing, Biden-Trump complexities Caliber.Az weekly review

Caliber.Az presents the next issue of the programme "Sobitiya" (Events) with Murad Abiyev, which features the week’s political developments in Azerbaijan and beyond.

AZERBAIJAN - ARMENIA

The traditional Energy Week has been held in Baku. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev addressed the opening ceremony. Emphasizing the exclusive role of hydrocarbons in the formation of independent Azerbaijan, Aliyev also pointed to the country's active policy on the development of renewable energy sources. Representatives of about 300 companies from 37 countries took part in the exhibitions and forum. Important documents were signed at the events and foundations were laid for promising energy projects.

The 13th plenary session of the Parliamentary Assembly of Turkic States was also a significant event of the week. President Aliyev touched upon several important issues at the meeting with representatives of parliament of Turkic countries. He emphasised that strengthening the Turkic world, and our relations with Turkic states are priority directions of Azerbaijan's foreign policy. The President also underlined the importance of the upcoming informal summit of the Organization of Turkic States to be held in Shusha this summer. The Azerbaijani leader noted that heads of state, chairmen of parliaments, representatives of civil society, all segments of society should hit one point to make the Turkic world stronger. "I am sure that the day will come when all world issues will be solved through consultations with the organization of Turkic states," the president said.

Referring to the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement, the President said that several issues still remain open. Among them, he again pointed to Armenia's constitution, which contains territorial claims to Azerbaijan. President Aliyev also noted that it is necessary to put an end to Armenia's unjustified territorial claims against Azerbaijan and Türkiye.

The President went on to say that Baku proposed to the Armenian side that Azerbaijan and Armenia together make an appeal to the OSCE for the legal abolition of the Minsk Group. Pointing out that there is no need for it, that de facto we will not allow it to exist as it is, he noted that Armenia's promotion of the legal abolition of the group will make it clear how sincere it is. "If Armenia prefers the preservation of the Minsk Group, it means that their territorial claims against us continue," Aliyev concluded.

So, in fact, President Aliyev voiced the current requirements for Armenia on the way to a peace treaty - to agree to the abolition of the OSCE Minsk Group, to eliminate from its legislation territorial claims to Azerbaijan and to put an end to territorial claims to Türkiye.

The latter two demands are all the more relevant because Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan said this week that normalisation with Türkiye is going well and that Armenia and Azerbaijan have mutual issues with each other's constitutions, which are said to be an obstacle to the peace process.

We should add once again that the Azerbaijani Constitution proclaims the legal succession of the Republic of Azerbaijan of 1918-1920. It has no territorial claims to Armenia. What can we do now that the ADR included the territories of modern Armenia. The succession of the ADR reflects the ideological connection between the two republics and the inheritance of statehood traditions. Meanwhile, Armenian legislation directly records the fact of territorial claim to Karabakh. We can talk about this topic for a long time, but what we are most interested in now is why the Armenian prime minister's team made such a statement after Pashinyan had been systematically proving to his society for several months the necessity of changing the basic law.

It seems logical that in this way Pashinyan is trying to increase his rating among the electorate in the context of internal protests against the border delimitation, as if he is sacrificing his previous achievements to the need to reassure Armenian society with some firmness in his negotiating position. However, one cannot rule out another aggravation of revanchism in Pashinyan's government - the reversal of previous positions and the disruption of the peace process have been observed more than once, but each time various sobering factors forced Yerevan to return to the negotiating table.

In turn, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov denied the problematic nature of the Azerbaijani Constitution at a joint briefing with Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Peter Szijjarto. He also added that Baku recently received another peace treaty proposals from Yerevan. "I would like to note that there are fewer open questions. There is positive progress," Bayramov said.

By the way, at this point it is necessary to talk separately about the visit of Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjártó. The main topics of discussion at the meeting between Szijjarto and Bayramov were the development of trade and economic relations, energy issues, mutual investments. They also touched upon the Azerbaijani-Armenian peace talks and priorities of Hungary's policy during the six-month presidency of the European Union. A final protocol on strategic dialog between the two countries and a memorandum on consular cooperation between the two countries' foreign ministries were also signed following the talks. Azerbaijani Economy Minister Mikayil Jabbarov and SOCAR President Rovshan Najaf also met with Szijjarto. A document on the purchase of a share in the Shah Deniz project by Hungarian company MVM was signed during the meeting.

And already at the end of the week, President Ilham Aliyev went on an official visit to the Arab Republic of Egypt. Following the meeting between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi, a number of documents of mainly economic nature were signed. At the joint conference, al-Sisi emphasized that the visit of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev will serve to strengthen bilateral relations and that Egypt is committed to establishing stability and peace in the South Caucasus. He noted that during the talks, the two sides paid attention to regional issues and to increasing humanitarian aid to Gaza. The Egyptian leader also congratulated Azerbaijan on its chairmanship at COP29.

For his part, President Aliyev noted that Azerbaijan and Egypt are actively working within international organizations and noted that the two countries make joint efforts to strengthen Islamic solidarity.

"In all international issues, our opinion with Egypt coincides," President Aliyev said.

Recalling President Al-Sisi's visit to Baku last year, Aliyev noted that political dialogue between Azerbaijan and Egypt is regular and that "we agreed to continue it further".

UKRAINE - RUSSIA

Intense fighting continues on the Ukrainian front, with the most fierce clashes taking place around the town of Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk Oblast.

In the international context, Russia and the West continue to raise the rhetoric, seemingly to improve their negotiating positions. Biden, in an interview with Time magazine, stated that Ukraine will not be admitted to NATO, while at the same time emphasizing that Russia will never (he repeated this word three times) occupy Ukraine. This can be seen as a proposal to Moscow for a kind of compromise. And to confirm his position of not conceding anything further, Biden even apologized to Zelenskyy at a meeting in Paris for the long delay in aid.

Moreover, Western countries have allowed Kyiv to strike Russian territory with its operational-tactical weapons, but only in the border zone and only at military targets.

Moscow, for its part, continues to threaten to use nuclear weapons. For example, Sergei Karaganov, a leading advocate of a nuclear strike, was appointed moderator of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. Karaganov and Putin even had a small argument on this topic. Putin reassured everyone that there was no situation requiring a tactical nuclear strike and asked Karaganov not to mention the possibility of nuclear strikes in vain. This in turn also became a message to Washington.

To be honest, it turned out to be senseless. The West never intended to admit Ukraine to NATO, and Russia had no intention of using nuclear weapons. As a result, it seems that the parties have agreed to fight for some more time to see if they can gain an advantage on the battlefield and enter negotiations in a stronger position.

MIDDLE EAST

The Israeli army continues its operation in Rafah. According to the Israeli Defense Ministry, it will last for about another month. At the same time, due to intensive shelling of northern Israel by Hezbollah, wildfires have started in the region. Tel Aviv cannot afford a ground operation in the north while fighting is ongoing in Gaza. The government has called up another 50,000 reservists, and they will all be sent to Gaza, not to the north. Meanwhile, there is no end in sight to the hostage stories.

All week long, Israel and Hamas considered Biden's peace plan. Both sides demanded guarantees from Washington. Tel Aviv - that in the event of a breakdown in the exchange of hostages and prisoners by Hamas, it has the right to resume hostilities, and Hamas - that a ceasefire should be agreed upon immediately and be final. In the end, a message came that Hamas had rejected the deal.

Against this backdrop, international pressure on the Jewish state continues. UN Secretary-General Guterres has put the Israeli Defense Forces on the blacklist of violators against children in conflict situations. However, it is possible that Netanyahu benefits from such a state of affairs, since as Hamas's intransigence grows, Hezbollah's attacks and Israel's international isolation, morale may rise in Israeli society, and then the issues of victory over Hamas will begin to prevail over the problem of freeing hostages. In this case, Netanyahu will be required to have only one goal - victory. The question is how confident Netanyahu himself is in his victory.

The US

The inability to achieve peace in both Ukraine and the Middle East is a minus for Biden and the Democrats as a whole in the election race. In addition, the incumbent president has clearly exacerbated health problems. For example, at an event dedicated to the 80th anniversary of the Allied landing in Normandy, Biden tried to sit on a non-existent chair. Against the backdrop of the growing popularity of Trump, who has announced that he is ready to rule the country from a prison cell, the scenario of the Democrats nominating Michelle Obama as a candidate seems more and more realistic. This is all the more likely given that there is even a growing popularity of Trump among the African American population of the states. And this, in turn, is directly related to the sympathy of African Americans for the figure of Trump as a victim of the judicial system.