Türkiye's major breakthroughs: from military-industrial complex to energy Shereshevskiy's analysis

The Turkish Land Forces Command received the first two samples of the Turkish Altay tank. The ceremony was held on April 23 at the Sakarya-Arifie military tank repair plant near Istanbul, with the participation of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Debates among the military brewing over the need for tanks in the wars of today and the future. But, in any case, all countries will be preparing to take part in big conventional wars. Not long ago they were thought impossible, but now they are exactly what is expected. Thus, the build-up of Turkish military power aimed at creating tanks, combat aircraft, etc. is inevitable.

Another factor driving this development is that the US has weakened its presence in the Middle East, as it is now more concerned about Europe and East Asia (confrontation with Russia and China). In the Middle East, a kind of power void has emerged, which several blocs are seeking to fill:

a) An alliance between Türkiye, Qatar and Pakistan, which has joined them;

b) Israel's alliance with the Sunni Arab monarchies - primarily the Gulf monarchies - an alliance reinforced by the Abrahamic agreements that normalised Israel's relations with the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco (for all the Saudis' hesitation, this is to some extent also relevant to them), and with India (Pakistan's eternal enemy) which has joined this alliance;

c) Iran and its allies, the Shiite bloc, the so-called "Axis of Resistance", within which Tehran, through its proxies and friendly movements (the Shiite militias of Iraq, the Assad regime in Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Husits in Yemen) controls to a large extent Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and parts of Yemen.

Heightened regional rivalries have stimulated efforts to develop the armed forces.

Türkiye's gross domestic product has quadrupled since 1996, the country has become one of the fastest growing economies in the world. Türkiye has become a large modern economy in the last few decades and, having built up a modern infrastructure, will undoubtedly build up its military power as well, both for the reasons mentioned and simply because it can do so. The country has become too strong to pursue the old ultra-cautious policy towards the Middle East.

There is now a heated debate in Türkiye about the future of its foreign policy. Some local politicians prefer a rapprochement with the US and the European Union because the country is organically linked to the huge markets of Europe and America and needs their capital and technology, including for further scientific and industrial modernisation. For example, Türkiye's defence sector is heavily dependent on imports of foreign components. In addition, Türkiye is a member of NATO and extremely important to the alliance, defending its eastern and southern flanks.

However, regardless of whether Türkiye's foreign policy and the economic course is adjusted to some extent, whether it becomes more linked to the Euro-Atlantic vector or not, Türkiye will still continue and expand the mega-projects launched during the Erdogan era.

While much in history depends on the individual, there are also objective factors that provide the framework for the development of the state. And that is what we are talking about here. The development of Türkiye's defence industry, in turn, is inconceivable without the modernisation of other sectors - education, technology, transport and energy.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently visited Zonguldak to attend the ceremony marking the start of natural gas production from the largest field in the Black Sea. According to Al-Monitor, "The production will start with 10 million cubic meters per day and increase to 40 million within the next five years. The President is expected to use the occasion to recall his promise to provide cheap or even free gas for some producers at home and to ensure that some gas is exported abroad, particularly to the European Union, which has been experiencing energy shortages since the conflict in Ukraine began. In any case, the Black Sea gas - TPAO's first development of an ultra-deep hydrocarbon field - provides Türkiye with a $97 billion annual energy export opportunity." The Black Sea gas project fuels Erdogan's vision of Türkiye's future as an energy hub of important geostrategic importance, where gas from multiple sources, both foreign and domestic, is traded and sold. This includes Russian and Azerbaijani gas.

Another important project is the Akkuyu NPP, which is worth about $25 billion and is of great importance to the country's growing industry and cities. The Turkish government has used the confrontation between Russia and the West to attract Russian capital and to ensure the construction of this plant on favourable terms through Russian loans (Moscow builds the plant itself and pays for the construction).

One way or another, with some adjustments, Türkiye is likely to continue its policy of mega-projects, including both defence and civilian ones. After all, it makes it possible to participate in the power competition, which has sharply intensified recently. Whoever stops will lose.