Ukraine between hope and reality Global games and local cost

Today, the attention of the entire international community is undoubtedly focused on the capital of Pakistan — Islamabad — where negotiations between the United States and Iran are expected to begin, the impact of whose outcomes on geopolitics and the global economy is difficult to overestimate.

At the same time, one should not forget about the ongoing Russian–Ukrainian war, which continues to have no less impact on processes both in Europe and globally. In this regard, it is worth noting that late in the evening of April 9, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced an Easter ceasefire from 16:00 on April 11 until the end of April 12.

In response, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine is ready for “mirror steps” and will react in accordance with Moscow’s actual actions. He also recalled that Kyiv had previously proposed a ceasefire for the Easter period, and noted that “Russia has the opportunity not to return to strikes even after Easter.”

However, unfortunately, the likelihood of such a development appears extremely low, as the Ukrainian and Russian sides continue to assess the current realities in completely different ways and believe that the initiative lies on their side.

At the same time, unfortunately, Ukraine in reality has far fewer grounds for optimism, and the “black gold” factor plays a significant role in this. In particular, Reuters, citing a source, reported that the administration of Donald Trump will extend the permission allowing a number of countries to purchase Russian oil: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent discussed with the White House leader the possibility of extending this mechanism the day before, and they concluded that it would be appropriate. It should be recalled that the US Treasury in mid-March allowed such purchases within the framework of a 30-day sanctions easing, which expires today, April 11.

In addition, Europe has significantly increased imports of Russian liquefied natural gas amid the conflict in the Middle East, spending billions of euros on it, as reported by the Financial Times. Thus, in the first quarter of this year, the EU received 69 out of 71 shipments (97%) from the large-scale Yamal LNG project in Siberia, with 25 of them arriving in March — more than in January or February individually. By comparison, in the same period last year, the EU accounted for 87% of the total — 68 shipments, while the remaining cargoes were sent to Asia.

In turn, according to the analytical company Kpler, imports from Yamal LNG increased by 17% in the first quarter, reaching 5 million tons compared to the same quarter of 2025. It is estimated that EU countries spent around 2.88 billion euros on gas from these facilities. As we can see, Russia continues to profit from the sale of oil and “blue fuel,” which allows it to allocate enormous funds to continue the war.

Ukraine has no such opportunities, and it continues to remain critically dependent on financial and military assistance from its European allies alone, as hopes for the United States have virtually disappeared for the Ukrainian side.

At the same time, the situation with the agreed €90 billion EU loan remains far from optimistic, and Kyiv is waiting for parliamentary elections in Hungary, which will take place tomorrow, hoping for Viktor Orbán’s defeat, since according to PolitPro polls as of April 10, the opposition Tisza leads with 49%, while the party of the incumbent prime minister Fidesz has 40.7%. However, it is believed that even if this happens, it will not immediately resolve Ukraine’s economic, military, and demographic problems.

Against this backdrop, scheduled power outages have returned to the capital and other Ukrainian cities, and the outlook for the future is also bleak. For example, the head of the Desnianskyi District State Administration, Maksym Bakhmatov, believes that even in the event of a full restoration of Kyiv’s combined heat and power plants, Russia could once again “freeze” Ukraine, because it has not run out of missiles. A similar warning was issued by former Energy Minister Yuriy Prodan.

Ukrainian experts also believe that during the upcoming autumn and winter, the state will not be able to ensure uninterrupted heat and electricity supply. In light of such forecasts, energy expert Hennadii Riabtsev advised Ukrainians: “What exactly can each resident of an apartment building do? Buy a power station and stock up on sleeping bags.”

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko stated that diesel in Ukraine should already cost more than 100 UAH ($2.31) per litre. According to her, price growth is being restrained by “Ukrnafta”: prices at its petrol stations largely serve as a benchmark for other fuel retail chains. At the same time, the state is currently unable to reduce fuel taxes, as some countries do, due to a budget deficit.

Given the situation outlined above, it is not surprising that electricity and gas tariffs for the population are expected to rise this year, as stated by Volodymyr Omelchenko, Director of Energy Programmes at the Razumkov Centre, commenting on the adoption of the law on the integration of Ukraine’s energy markets with the EU, which was passed by the Verkhovna Rada on Tuesday, April 7.

“Prices for gas and electricity for the population could increase by about 25% this year. It is unlikely to be higher due to political considerations,” he said.

It is not difficult to understand that such an increase will lead to a further rise in the cost of goods and services, which will negatively affect the living standards of many Ukrainians.

Another factor in favour of the Kremlin is that the Russian Federation is not experiencing a shortage of military personnel and will retain significant mobilisation potential in the coming years. This was also stated by the Head of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov, in an interview with Bloomberg. According to him, if necessary, Russia could mobilise up to 2.5 million people, which significantly exceeds Ukraine’s corresponding capabilities.

Thus, the combination of all the above elements suggests that strategic superiority currently lies with Russia, which is why it is unlikely to abandon its plans to continue the war. This would only be possible if Ukraine’s current leadership agreed to comply with Moscow’s ultimatum. However, it is unlikely to do so.