Ukraine’s demographic front War, migration, and identity crisis

Among the long list of negative consequences caused by armed conflict, the damage inflicted on demographics is perhaps the most severe and long-lasting for any country. Ukraine, which has been living through more than four years of full-scale war, is experiencing this firsthand.

As recently stated by Ukraine’s Minister of Social Policy, Family and Unity, Denys Uliutin, an estimated 22 to 25 million people currently live in territories under Kyiv’s control. He also recalled that in 1991, the country’s population stood at around 48 million, while by 2022 this figure had declined to approximately 41 million.

The minister further noted that “another roughly 3 million people remain in the temporarily occupied territories, including Crimea.” According to the official, Ukraine’s demographic situation has deteriorated dramatically as a result of the war, the mass exodus of citizens abroad, and the temporary occupation of parts of the country.

Commenting on these remarks by Denys Uliutin, former Verkhovna Rada deputy and popular blogger Borislav Bereza published the following post on Facebook:

“This information is not merely a statement of facts, but a verdict on the system itself. The problem is that people are leaving Ukraine not only because of the war and danger, but also because of the kind of ‘dream country’ President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is building in Ukraine. By the way, when a minister has a discrepancy of 3 million people — more than 10% of the population — and does not know the real number of people living in the country, then perhaps it is time for the minister to submit a resignation letter on the grounds of professional incompetence.”

In this context, it is worth noting that, according to the census conducted on January 12–19, 1989, the population of the Ukrainian SSR stood at 51.707 million people. The highest figure in the country’s history was recorded in 1993, at approximately 52.2 million.

At the same time, during the ten years of Leonid Kuchma’s leadership, Ukraine’s population declined to 47.2 million people. During the presidency of Viktor Yushchenko, it fell by roughly another 1.2 million, reaching 46 million. By the end of Petro Poroshenko’s presidency, the figure had dropped to 42.1 million, largely due to the loss of control over Crimea and parts of Donbas in 2014.

Thus, there is a truly dramatic decline in Ukraine’s population, and this problem is having a destructive impact on its economy, which is critically short of labour force. For example, Director of the Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Ella Libanova, argues that, due to the demographic crisis, Ukraine may need to accept hundreds of thousands of migrants annually in order to sustain its economy.

In turn, the head of the Migration Policy Office, Vasyl Voskoboynik, has forecast the need to attract millions of migrants to overcome the labour shortage. Meanwhile, former Minister of Economy and head of the Kyiv School of Economics, Tymofiy Mylovanov, goes even further, stating that the country may need to bring in up to 10 million labour migrants to restore its economy.

Such prospects are provoking a strong and negative reaction among those Ukrainian citizens who remain in the country, due to their concerns that, over time, ethnic Ukrainians may cease to constitute a majority in the state.

At the same time, TikTok, Facebook, and other social networks are filled with posts by Ukrainians proudly sharing that they have fled the country and have no intention of returning under any circumstances. Some of them openly admit to illegally crossing the border. There is also a large group of users posting photos and videos of their holidays at various overseas resorts, accompanied by ironic comments directed at their fellow citizens who remain in Ukraine under daily missile and drone strikes.

All of this, naturally, deepens societal divisions and creates a widening gap between those who have stayed in Ukraine since the beginning of the full-scale war and those who have left the country. As a result, experts and political circles are discussing legislative initiatives under which men who left the country illegally after the end of hostilities could face legal consequences. In particular, proposals include restricting their ability to dispose of property, carry out notarial actions, or renew documents without personal appearance at the Territorial Centers of Recruitment and Social Support (TCRs).

In addition, another subject of debate has been the issue of the forced return to the country of men of conscription age. For example, possible mechanisms of cooperation with European states to deport or restrict the stay of Ukrainian citizens who violated exit regulations are being discussed, although in practice, this is extremely difficult to implement.

However, be that as it may, Ukraine is already facing an unprecedented demographic crisis today, one of the causes of which is the weakening perception among some Ukrainians of their country as a homeland that must be defended and in which one should remain during one of the most difficult periods in its modern history, as it confronts enormous challenges.