What are the odds for EU's von der Leyen to become NATO chief? Who will join Biden in push for her bid?

US President Joe Biden considers European Commission (EC) chief Ursula von der Leyen the best candidate to lead the North Atlantic Alliance in 2024, The Daily Telegraph reports citing unnamed NATO sources.

According to one of those sources, the US leader was trying to persuade the German politician to take over as head of NATO over fears that no worthy replacement for the bloc's current general secretary Jens Stoltenberg could be found in the coming 12 months.

"We will have a problem next year because it is becoming clear that the situation will not get any better than this year," another source added. Another newspaper interlocutor said that Biden and von der Leyen had developed a "strong bond" in recent years that had strengthened the transatlantic engagement on China, Ukraine and, finally, the climate. As noted in the article, the EC head now "relies on Washington for intelligence," which means abandoning the previous approach where information from European intelligence agencies was considered primary.

According to the Daily Telegraph, the fact that von der Leyen is fluent in French may provide her with the support of French President Emmanuel Macron. At the same time, the EC head's poor management of the German defence ministry, which she headed from 2013 to 2019, could play against her.

The real question is whether von der Leyen is capable of bringing something new to a global organisation such as NATO. It has to be admitted that as head of the European Commission, she behaves very decisively. Suffice it to recall her principled stance on any issue of support for Ukraine, which is suffering from aggression. Besides, she has already held a "military post" - she headed the Ministry of Defence of the Federal Republic of Germany. How about the post of Secretary General of the North Atlantic bloc - will she be able to prove herself, strengthen the Alliance, and breathe new life into it? Foreign analysts expressed their views on the matter in a conversation with Caliber.Az.

Russian politician, former deputy head of the Russian presidential administration, and retired FSB Major General Yevgeny Savostyanov believes that NATO's secretary general has a number of important tasks to accomplish.

According to Savostyanov, it is necessary to preserve the "consistency" in the confrontation with Russia and Iran, and possibly China as well, to improve the organisation's efficiency: curb the growth of costs, implement a unified military and technical policy, including the deployment of the military-industrial complex on a quantitatively different level, improve the military strategy and overcome the unanimity principle. Also, depending on the course of military operations, a decision will have to be made on the degree of Ukraine's integration and the deployment of NATO contingents on its territory. Nor should we forget the creation of optimal conditions for Biden or his successor in the US elections...

"The main thing that will be required of Ursula von der Leyen, if she is nominated, is the ability to simultaneously turn Europe into an independent military force while accepting the leading role of the US. But she is experienced, and patient and has overcome her dependence on 'Merkelism'. She has become adept at persuading European politicians. In such structures this is important. And military planning issues will traditionally be left to the US representative. So she is a good candidate," says the Russian general.

But the analyst, publisher, and editor-in-chief of Neue Zeiten magazine and the YouTube channel Neue Zeiten TV (Germany), Alexander Cherkassky, is rather negative about von der Leyen.

"This is Merkel's creature, which already speaks volumes. She has shown herself very badly during her time in the German defence ministry. She was very incompetent during the coronavirus and her work on vaccine procurement was marred by a series of scandals. Speaking beautifully does not mean managing effectively. I am afraid she may do more harm than good," Cherkassky believes.

On the contrary, Anatoly Pinchuk, head of the Eastern Europe Security Institute (Kiev), is convinced that Ursula von der Leyen is a rather experienced and pragmatic politician.

"I think she will cope with the role of NATO Secretary General if she is elected to the post, especially as she has time to prepare - Stoltenberg will be in office for another year", he said.

"President Biden's position on Wallace is questionable (as The Telegraph writes, the US chief blocked British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace's candidacy for the post of NATO Secretary General because London was promoting F-16 pilot training without US approval), as well as on the issue of Ukraine's admission to NATO. One gets the impression that President Biden, or at least his inner circle, is extremely cautious. And as a consequence there are questions about the future of the Alliance itself and its plans in relation to Russia", concludes the head of the institute.