What will come after Hamas? Endgame in Gaza

After more than a month of the violent escalation between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, the final resolution is not on the horizon. While the Israeli Defense Forces are conducting the third phase of the military operation against Hamas in Gaza, the international community vocally voices concern regarding the unfolding humanitarian crisis in the city among civilian Palestinians.

However, despite pressure and public criticism, official Tel Aviv seems determined to eliminate Hamas militant organization from the region due to national security concerns.

Amid the ongoing operation, many argue that Israel will not leave Gaza after the operation ends, establishing long-term control and causing a mass exodus. Israel assiduously avoided an all-out military confrontation with Hamas, estimating that it was safer to have a contained Palestinian power controlling Gaza than no power at all. Indeed, such a scenario will increase international pressure, causing another major diplomatic crisis.

Although the Western partners support Israel's right to self-defence and slam Hamas for its brutal series of attacks on Israel, they will unlikely give the green light to Israel's permanent control over Gaza. For example, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently stated that Israel will keep control over Gaza indefinitely after its war against Hamas ends.

Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Minister Benny Gantz rejected mounting international criticism over the civilian costs of the war, urging Western leaders to throw their support behind the Jewish state since its victory would mean victory for the entire free world as well.

Unlike Israel, the US, Tel Aviv’s main security partner and supporter, has warned that Israel cannot control Gaza after the war with Hamas ends. Moreover, other Arab states and Türkiye also called on Israel to abstain from that scenario as it may ignite the situation in the volatile region. On November 7, US President Joe Biden also stated that he does not support an Israeli military “reoccupation” of the Gaza Strip after the Israel-Hamas war ends.

In line with it, the European Union (EU) top diplomat Joseph Borrell also took a firm stance on the issue, stating that Israel's control over Gaza would be the "violation of all norms of international law". The EU's main narrative is that Palestinians cannot be forcibly displaced from Gaza, and Gaza cannot be dissociated from the overall Palestinian issue but instead must be framed within the solution of Palestinian issues.

On the other hand, Arab countries proposed the idea of involvement in the post-war reconstruction process of Gaza after Israel ceases military actions. However, the primary condition is that Gaza must be governed by Palestinians, not Tel Aviv or Hamas.

The Israelis have yet to articulate a vision or strategy for what a post-Hamas Gaza would look like, as the focus is on fighting and winning the war right now. Considering Israel’s security concerns amid Hamas attacks, it would be unwise to create a power vacuum in Gaza. Otherwise, Israel risks unleashing a wave of instability and disorder that could have far-reaching impacts.

As Hamas’s invasion demonstrates, Israel's most serious current threat is internal and, to some extent, self-inflicted. It is driven by Israel's failure to offer Palestinians either real statehood or security and equal economic and political opportunity. Instead of statehood, Palestinians are divided into four Israeli-controlled enclaves, each with different causes of tension between Israel and the Palestinians and somewhat different pressures on its resident Palestinians.

Israel has set three goals in its current war, two explicit and one implicit, and it is unlikely to achieve them despite comprehensive military, economic, and diplomatic superiority. The two explicit goals are the release of civilian hostages and military prisoners of war (POWs) captured by Hamas in its October 7 attacks and the elimination of Hamas itself.

However, the continuous military operations triggered criticism from various NGOs and humanitarian organizations due to the humanitarian catastrophe unfolding alongside the strip and nearby territories.

As such, the White House and the EU attempt to push for a “humanitarian pause”. The White House has described the pause as a temporary, "localized" break in fighting to allow aid into Gaza or civilians to get out.

For Israel, the most significant failure of the war will be that the status quo that Israel has maintained – of suppressing and ignoring Palestinian demands for statehood – is no longer feasible. Consequently, few see hope for a positive outcome from a sustained victory by Israel over Hamas.