Why does Türkiye push for new Ukraine-Russia negotiations? From ally to mediator

On February 28, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that Türkiye is ready to host peace talks between Russia and Ukraine again. The final rounds of unsuccessful peace talks in 2022 took place in the Turkish city of Antalya. Maintaining close ties with both Moscow and Kyiv since the war unfolded, Ankara sought to position itself as a mediator in the war. Despite unsuccessful negotiations, the Turkish president reiterated that diplomacy should be given a chance to "fair and lasting resolution" of the full-scale war, which has entered its third year.

Although many countries, including Türkiye, set up a negotiation format to regulate the conflict, Kyiv and Moscow maintained harsh stances on initial conditions. As a result, sufficient progress has not been made toward establishing peace, and bringing both parties together is crucial for the success of peace initiatives. Hence, Turkish diplomacy has been faultless since the start of the war. It has evaluated its interests, found a balance between the warring parties, and used firmness when necessary while taking advantage of the circumstances.

Although Türkiye has good economic and energy ties with Russia, it has always been a vocal supporter of Ukraine's territorial integrity. Moreover, during the critical phase of the war, Ankara donated a number of Bayraktar TB2 combat drones that ambushed the Russian forces in the early months of the war. The TB2 has been hugely popular in Ukraine as it helped destroy Russian artillery systems and armored vehicles.

Notably, Ankara even went further by launching the construction of its new factory near Kyiv on February 7, 2024. Baykar company received licenses to manufacture combat drones in Ukraine in June 2023, and the production of drones is set to begin in 2025, the total investment into the project would amount to around $95 million.

The geographical location of Türkiye in the region is the most influencing determinant in its foreign policy and strategic position. The geographical position of Türkiye is exploited by NATO and the European Union as it is the southern flank against Russia and a buffer zone to hold and slow down the refugee influx from North Africa and the unstable Levant region. For Russia, Türkiye provides secure, warm water to the Sea of Marmara, the Mediterranean, and the Atlantic Ocean for the transport of its goods and ships.

Such prospects may explain Moscow’s muted reaction to Ankara’s defence and economic partnership with Ukraine. Though the Kremlin is not happy with the Ankara-Kyiv alliance, it turns a blind eye in order not to anger Ankara. In light of international sanctions, Russia views Türkiye as a viable option to circumvent sanctions, particularly in banking. Therefore, it should come as a little surprise that Russia did not object to Ankara's offer to set up a new round of negotiations with Ukraine.

Moreover, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will visit Türkiye in early March to attend the high-level diplomatic forum in Antalya city and discuss "a wide range of issues, primarily the state, and prospects of bilateral cooperation in areas of mutual interest." The visit comes amid Russia's capture of the Ukrainian village of Stepove, about 11 km northwest of Avdiivka, which fell under Russian control a few weeks ago. After the Russians captured Avdiivka, the Ukrainian military withdrew from Stepove and Sieverne, two villages that had a total pre-war population of fewer than 100 people.

Unsurprisingly, the US and the EU also value Türkiye's mediation efforts in the Ukraine issue as the direct diplomatic relations between the West and Moscow almost severed. In this regard, Ankara’s mediation enables the US and Western partners to keep the pulse. Moreover, Türkiye played a crucial role in securing the Black Sea grain deal with Russia in 2021 and 2022, though Moscow later decided to leave the agreement, citing "inappropriate terms."

Ankara's attempts to boost its role as a mediator positively impacted diplomatic normalization with the US, particularly for the purchase of F16 fighter jets for Türkiye. Although expectations are low from the new round of peace negotiations in Türkiye, it may be a signal to push Kyiv and Moscow toward a diplomatic track to prevent further casualties.