Will Sweden and Finland's NATO membership bid shift Türkiye’s foreign policy course? Hurdles remain for Nordic countries

It's been eight months since Sweden and Finland declared their intent to join NATO, a move that upended the countries' longstanding policies of nonalignment following Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. However, since the membership process to join NATO formally began in 2022, Hungary and Türkiye abstained from supporting their membership, setting the stage for a showdown with serious long-term implications for both states and the alliance.

While the criticism regarding the position of two member countries mounted in the West, Türkiye cites what it considers their lax attitude toward three entities: the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), designated as a terrorist organization by NATO members, including the United States; the Democratic Union Party (PYD), the PKK’s Syrian offshoot; and FETO (Ankara’s name for the Fethullah Gulen movement). Hence, President Erdogan’s preconditions in exchange for NATO membership are the chief obstacle in the path of NATO’s historic Nordic expansion.

During the latest NATO summit in 2022 in Madrid, Turkish, Swedish, and Finnish diplomats signed a trilateral memorandum, which pledged Sweden and Finland not to provide support to the PYD or its military branch, the People’s Defense Units (YPG), or FETO, and reaffirm that they consider the PKK a terrorist organization.

Moreover, Ankara agreed with Helsinki and Stockholm on the extradition of several individuals who allegedly are linked to PKK and YPG. As for members and associates of the Gülen Movement, they are not considered terrorists in the West and often obtain political asylum. Yet since the signing of the memorandum, Swedish and Finnish courts have denied several extradition requests, including one reportedly pertaining to exiled dissident journalist Bulent Kenes. Unsurprisingly, the denial triggered anger and accusations in Ankara that Nordic countries have not taken sufficient steps to satisfy its strict conditions for clearing its objection to their accession.

Although some disputes have been settled via diplomatic channels since 2022, the rhetoric recently heightened when Rasmus Paludan, leader of the Danish far-right political party Hard Line publicly set on fire the Muslim holy book Quran outside of the Turkish embassy in Sweden under the protection of local police. The public stunt immediately caused worldwide condemnation, including the UN bodies dubbing it a disrespectful and insulting move against the adherents of Islam.

Given the nature of the European far-right and ultranationalist political parties and their historical ties to Russian political circles, it becomes evident that the recent action with the burning of the Quran by an ultranationalist politician may be a well-organized Russian provocation to prevent or delay Swedish ascension to NATO. Undoubtedly, such a bizarre action in Sweden was followed by statements from Ankara, with President Erdogan warning Sweden that it should not expect his backing to join NATO soon. Considering Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson's recent statement, “I want to express my sympathy for all Muslims who are offended by what has happened in Stockholm today,” negotiations may be underway between Stockholm and Ankara for a resolution of the current diplomatic crisis.  

Nonetheless, the Nordic applicants appear no closer to sealing an accession deal with Türkiye today than they were over half a year ago when talks began. Even though Ankara vocally criticizes Sweden and Finland, it will unlikely stall the process but seek more concessions. Some experts even contend that Ankara is unlikely to drop its opposition to NATO enlargement until after the upcoming general election cycle in Türkiye in May 2023.

Unlike Sweden, Finland’s dialogue with Türkiye proceeds more smoothly, raising optimism in Helsinki regarding the final approval from Ankara. Moreover, the Finnish authorities even stated that the country could reconsider its joint NATO bid with Sweden if Stockholm’s application is delayed further, though no further evaluation followed on that issue.

Sweden and Finland's ambitions to join NATO amid the Ukraine war represent a major change in national security strategy for both countries. As such, securing Ankara’s assent to Stockholm and Helsinki membership will require a shift in mindset since members of an alliance like NATO must take their allies’ perceived threats seriously and coordinate closely to address them. Moreover, if Sweden and Finland join NATO soon with Ankara's blessing, there will be a necessity for close Nordic-Turkish cooperation against Moscow.

The war in Ukraine has been a catalyst for radical geopolitical change and global security cataclysms, prompting both NATO and Turkey to pursue policies unthinkable in peacetime. The story of these diplomatic rifts and full-scale war, closely tied to the war's course and eventual outcome, is still being written.