Armenia's role in re-exporting weapons to Russia Will Western sanctions follow?

Armenia is re-exporting Western-made sniper rifles to Russia, profiting significantly from its indirect involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. According to The Insider, after direct supplies to Russia were halted, companies from the EU and the US drastically increased arms exports to Armenia and several other countries, from which the weapons subsequently reach Russia. The report highlights that the surge in exports from the European Union and the US to Russia's neighbors is staggering. For instance, rifle and shotgun exports from Italy to Armenia rose from 68 units in 2019 to 1,862 in 2023—a 2,638% increase over this period.

What will be the reaction of the international community, including Ukraine, to such "antics" by Yerevan? Foreign political experts shared their opinions on this matter with Caliber.Az.

According to Ukrainian international affairs expert and Doctor of Political Science Petro Oleschuk, such "grey schemes" indeed exist, and it seems Armenia, along with several other countries, has become entangled in them.

"Such deals are most likely driven by tactical interests of a purely financial nature, and examples like this are far from rare. Unfortunately, this is our reality, but those who engage in such transactions somehow fail to consider that these schemes could later be used against them. This also raises a question for Western partners—why don’t they view the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) countries, including Armenia, as allies of Russia? At the very least, sanctions should also be imposed on them, particularly in the arms sector, which would be entirely logical. However, it seems that certain Western countries have their own interests, as this issue is not even up for discussion," the political analyst remarked.

In his opinion, Kyiv will respond to these developments, albeit possibly with some delay.

"It takes time to analyze the information, but some kind of response will inevitably follow. There is always an official reaction to such matters, especially when this information becomes public. Issues like sanction circumvention and the arming of Russia are perceived very painfully in Ukraine. However, speaking about the intensity of Kyiv's reaction, I believe that under the current circumstances, it may be limited to diplomatic démarches, simply because there are not many other mechanisms of influence available," noted Oleschuk.

At the same time, according to Kazakh political analyst Azat Akhmetov, Armenia is a country for which participation in illicit dealings, including the illegal arms trade, is quite customary.

"It is enough to recall a number of scandals where Armenia acted as a supplier of Russian weapons to third countries. Even members of the Armenian Prime Minister’s family were implicated in these shady deals—consider the scandal involving the arrest of arms dealer David Galstyan, who was the key figure in a large-scale arms trade scheme. Armenian opposition figures alleged that Nikol Pashinyan and his family members were at the helm of this operation. From this, we can conclude that the profits from such supplies were undoubtedly substantial. Looking for morality and ethics in Armenia's policies is futile—they simply don’t exist. I have no doubt that Yerevan would have no qualms about supplying rifles to Russian snipers without much thought about the consequences of such actions. In Armenia, it seems no one cares who these snipers might end up killing with that weaponry—commercial interests clearly take precedence here.

However, I believe that in the near future, given the thoroughness of the investigation, Armenia may very well face Western sanctions due to its unforgiving stance toward such arms dealers," Akhmetov concluded.