"Azerbaijan and Armenia hold the key to peace in our region" Foreign experts' opinions on Caliber.Az

The second meeting of the regional cooperation platform in the format "3+3" (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia - Russia, Türkiye, and Iran) can be held in the coming months, Denis Gonchar, director of the fourth department of the CIS countries of the Russian Foreign Ministry, told TASS.

"Currently, we are still working on the organizational modalities of the second meeting of the "3+3". We expect that it will take place in the coming months. Judging by the attitude of all the participants, an invitation can be sent to Georgia too," said the diplomat.

According to him, Russia believes that the regional consultative platform "3+3" is needed for the expansion of mutually beneficial cooperation between the participating countries.

"I recall that during the founding meeting in Moscow in December 2021 it was decided to focus on topics of common interest - the development of trade, economic, transport, cultural, and humanitarian ties, as well as the fight against common challenges and threats," Gonchar added.

In this case, the representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry is clearly embellishing the situation around this proposed format. First of all, the Georgian Foreign Ministry has most unambiguously stated on several occasions that it is not going to participate in this initiative as long as 20 per cent of its territory is occupied by Russia. And secondly, we should not forget about the relations of other potential participants. For example, Iran and Azerbaijan are clearly not at the right time to start any additional partnership between them. And what about the relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia? How can there be any cooperation in the conditions of unrelenting tension that we have been observing for months? Is such a statement by the Russian Foreign Ministry appropriate against such a backdrop?

Well-known foreign experts shared their views on these issues with Caliber.Az.

According to Vardan Harutyunyan, an Armenian public figure, human rights activist, publicist, and Soviet-era political prisoner, Gonchar's statement indicates that Russia is now trying by all possible and impossible means to remain in our region and dictate its will, as it did for a long time before.

"Moscow has far fewer opportunities now, but it is not giving up its former ambitions. A lot can change in our region, and Russia's destabilizing role will decrease if Armenia and Azerbaijan agree on peace. In this matter today much depends on Azerbaijan. The key to success and peace in our region, I have always said, is in the hands of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Russia plays a destabilizing role not only in our region, but also in the world, but events are developing in such a way that its opportunities are diminishing. This will give us the opportunity to resolve our contradictions without Moscow's interference. Instead of focusing on the previous contradictions, we need to take advantage of the situation and look forward," Harutyunyan believes.

Russian political analyst and Deutsche Welle columnist Konstantin Eggert (Vilnius) notes, in turn, that this is a very strange initiative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, given the numerous contradictions between the participants in the proposed meeting of the "3+3" platform. Especially taking into account the fact that Georgia refused in advance to take part together with Russia until the occupation of Georgian lands is completed.

"But I think such ideas are regularly arising in the Foreign Ministry and in the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation, because they think that they need to constantly demonstrate at least some kind of diplomatic activity, they need to show that Russia is not in international isolation. And in this sense to me, it is rather a manifestation of such typical Moscow loyalism when diplomats have to imitate vigorous activity even when there is nothing much to imitate. But I would not take the idea of such meeting seriously. I am sure that no momentous decisions can be made there," Eggert said.

Israeli publicist Avigdor Eskin (Jerusalem) noted that, in fact, Denis Gonchar's statement does not bind anyone to anything. It contains only an optimistic wish that a meeting in the "3+3" format will take place in the foreseeable future.

"At present, it is difficult to imagine how the Russian Foreign Ministry will be able to include in this cooperation format simultaneously not only Georgia but also Armenia, which has blatantly refused to sign the CSTO general document. In addition, the issue of tense relations between Iran and Azerbaijan is greatly exacerbated by the attempts to overthrow the ayatollah regime from within, which have been going on for three months now. Ethnic Azerbaijanis show a high degree of dissatisfaction with the current regime in Iran. This is a complex bunch of questions that no one will be able to answer in the coming months.

We see that Russia is in a quandary within the CSTO. Negotiations between the Kremlin and Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to coordinate gas policy are not easy. And the "3+3" format seems even more complicated. The Russian Foreign Ministry's optimism can be assessed as a manifestation of a healthy spirit of hope, but not the spirit of realism," Eskin summarized.