Changing gears: German chancellor adopts far-right rhetoric Things aren’t going as planned

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is now adopting rhetoric from the very "Alternative for Germany" (AfD) party that he loathes. How else can one interpret his recent push for a "necessary peace conference on Ukraine with Russia," along with his rejection of a vote of confidence amid criticism from his Social Democratic Party colleagues? Scholz stated, "It’s time to discuss a swift resolution to the military conflict and achieve peace." He has supported Russia's participation in the upcoming peace conference, though he hasn’t yet announced a specific date for the conference. Furthermore, Scholz emphasized that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has agreed to Russia's involvement in the summit.

Interestingly, analysts didn’t have to work hard to speculate on the reasons behind Scholz’s sudden shift in position regarding the Russia-Ukraine issue. By reaffirming the government’s commitment to "providing all necessary support to Ukraine," Scholz highlighted that the results of recent regional elections in Saxony and Thuringia reveal "some German citizens' disagreement with our support for Kyiv."

In light of Scholz's admission, it’s worth noting that the AfD, as previously mentioned, has achieved a historic first by winning elections in a specific region—East Germany’s Thuringia. Simultaneously, the party, which is increasingly attracting youth voters, has secured over 30 per cent of the vote not only in Thuringia but also in Saxony, where it came in second.

Meanwhile, the so-called "traffic light" coalition parties, which form the current government triumvirate in Germany, including Scholz's Social Democrats, have suffered a major defeat. The three coalition parties collectively managed only 12 per cent of the vote in these two regions. This significant loss has been widely criticized by politicians as not just a disgrace but a humiliation, akin to Macron’s setbacks. Additionally, upcoming elections in Brandenburg are anticipated, where the AfD and the left-wing Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which finished third in both Thuringia and Saxony, are expected to be strong contenders.

At the same time, some experts highlight that while Scholz has been fully aware of the worsening political situation for the coalition, he has not taken decisive steps to address it. This was evident in February when, during a speech in the Bundestag, the Chancellor—who has always claimed to have "everything under control"—admitted, "Things are not going according to plan." He also noted that Germany had "no prospects for industry and jobs." After the ruling coalition's poor performance in the European Parliament elections in June 2024, Scholz publicly stated that the "traffic light" parties had lost popularity due to their "support for Ukraine and anti-Russian sanctions." Nonetheless, he concluded that there is no alternative to this policy from the German government, despite the fact that not all Germans support the government's position on this issue.

It appears that Scholz's rhetoric has significantly shifted in response to the political processes unfolding in Germany, particularly concerning the ruling coalition's loss of credibility. This change is evident in his call for Ukrainian refugees to "find work in Germany as soon as possible." To facilitate this, he has advocated for expedited work permits for Ukrainians with specific skills who face "bureaucratic hurdles" in verifying their qualifications in Germany. Additionally, given the frequent absence of "official documents for their primary professions," Scholz has emphasized the need for Ukrainian refugees to consider "part-time work or lower-skilled positions" until these issues are resolved.

This stance closely mirrors the positions previously expressed by AfD officials. Interestingly, these developments occurred alongside a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group at Ramstein Air Base in Germany. In his video address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy outlined the main priorities for Kyiv at the start of this fall as strengthening Ukraine's position, protecting cities, and enhancing opportunities for soldiers on the front lines. Zelenskyy emphasized that every day, every week, Kyiv must grow stronger.

However, Olaf Scholz is gradually shifting his focus. He has described the SPD as a "battle-hardened party" and has announced plans to "fight for a strong mandate" in the upcoming federal elections in autumn 2025. To counter the AfD and the BSW, Scholz sees the key to victory in significantly altering his party’s foreign policy stance. Domestically, a potential alliance between Scholz and the BSW is not ruled out, given that the BSW flatly refuses to cooperate with the AfD.

Although there is still time before the Bundestag elections, it is evident that Scholz has already started his campaign, progressively adjusting his international policy positions.