Delayed punishment for AZAL crash culprits and Trump's "Golden Age" pledge Caliber.Az weekly review

Caliber.Az has prepared another episode of “Sobitiya” (“Events”) show with Azerbaijani political analyst Murad Abiyev about the key news of the week related to Azerbaijan and other countries.

Azerbaijan

Some 35 years have passed since the tragedy of January 20. Inept leader of the Soviet Union Mikhail Gorbachev decided to take revenge on the Azerbaijani people for the failed Soviet project, deploying tanks and firearms to do so. 

With such desperate measures, the Soviet center tried to save the agonizing Soviet Union, paradoxically showing solidarity with those who led it to this agony—the Armenian elites. Nevertheless, January 20 became a milestone for the Azerbaijani people in realizing the necessity of striving for independence. We bow our heads in honor of the martyrs' memory. On January 21, the open preparatory court hearing continued for the criminal case regarding the crimes committed by Armenia, its armed forces, and illegal entities on the previously occupied territories of Azerbaijan. 

Among the accused are Arayik Harutyunyan, Bako Saakyan, Arkady Ghukasyan, Davit Babayan, and others. During the hearing, the lawyers for most of the defendants requested to replace the detention measure for their clients with house arrest. The next court session will take place on January 27, during which the decisions regarding the motions will be announced.

The recent week was also marked by news related to the Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) plane tragedy. The data from the flight recorders has been fully decoded in Brazil and returned to Kazakhstan. 

Kazakhstan's Deputy Prime Minister Kanat Bozumbaev said at a press conference that preliminary results of the investigation into the AZAL plane crash near Aktau may be released next week. He noted that the results are currently being reviewed by a team of experts in Kazakhstan under the auspices of the country’s Prosecutor General's Office.  

Caliber.Az reports, citing reliable sources, by publishing an article on its website that the investigation being conducted in Russia into the crash of the Azerbaijan Airlines aircraft has confirmed that the plane was shot down by the "Pantsir S1" air defence system. Caliber.Az has also learned that the Russian investigation has confirmed the use of electronic warfare systems against the Azerbaijani aircraft, which led to the failure of the aircraft's control system. 

The investigation in Russia has identified not only the individual who fired at the civilian plane but also the person who issued the order. Moreover, Caliber.Az is already aware of the names and ranks of those individuals. The wave of anti-Azerbaijani hysteria stirred up by Russian media is perplexing. Azerbaijan is awaiting the moment when the Russian side will officially acknowledge its responsibility for the incident, along with all the consequences that will follow.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev visited Davos, Switzerland, where he held a series of meetings with world leaders. Among them were German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Israeli President Isaac Herzog, Iraqi President Abdullatif Jamal Rashid, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and others. 

President Aliyev also met with leaders of international companies and organisations, including the president of Goldman Sachs, the president of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and the head of the US Congress of Christian Leaders. During the meeting with the latter, the sides exchanged the views on the positive prospects of the Azerbaijan-US relations during the Trump administration. 

US 

On January 20, the inauguration of US President Donald Trump was held. In his first speech, Trump outlined the central theme of his presidency. 

"The golden age of America begins right now," Trump, who was sworn in as the 47th president of the United States, on January 20, said in a roughly 30-minute inaugural address. 

"From this day forward, our country will flourish and be respected again all over the world. We will be the envy of every nation, and we will not allow ourselves to be taken advantage of any longer during every single day of the Trump administration." During his speech, the new president criticised the previous Democratic administration. 

He accused Joe Biden's team of being unable to handle domestic crises and of ineffectiveness in international matters.   As concrete measures to undo the harmful policies of the previous administration, Trump immediately signed a series of documents following his inauguration.

Here are some of them: executive orders withdrawing the US from the World Health Organisation and the Paris Agreement, an order “Defending Women from Gender Ideology Extremism and Restoring Biological Truth to the Federal Government”, which recognizes the existence of only two genders – female and male, a declaration of a state of emergency on the southern border – deploying armed forces, including the National Guard, to assist the Department of Homeland Security in securing the border, and an order aimed at removing regulatory barriers to increase domestic energy production and reduce its costs. By separate executive orders, the Gulf of Mexico is being renamed the American Gulf, and Mount Denali in Alaska is reverting to its former name, Mount McKinley, in honor of the 25th President of the United States. The latter is especially symbolic. 

McKinley is known for actively implementing protectionist tariffs. In foreign policy, his presidency is marked by the annexation of not only Cuba and Puerto Rico but also the Philippines, signaling a departure from isolationism and marking the beginning of America's involvement in the affairs of the Eastern Hemisphere. Trump’s isolationism does not equate to passivity in foreign affairs. On the contrary, Washington is likely to pursue even more actively its power and the prosperity of its citizens by securing advantages from the outside world. However, the key for Trump is to negotiate favorable deals, which, as they say, inspires cautious optimism. 

Ukraine – Russia

The Russian army continues its slow advance on the Ukrainian front. Reports indicate that the situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces is dire near Velyka Novosilka in Donetsk region. New attempts are being made to capture the strategically important town of Pokrovsk, including through bypass routes. Meanwhile, following Trump's inauguration, diplomacy is reviewed. In a post on Truth Social, Trump reached out to Vladimir Putin and the citizens of Russia, urging the end of the protracted conflict in Ukraine. 

Trump emphasised that if a peaceful resolution is rejected, Washington intends to issue an ultimatum and impose "high tariffs, duties, and sanctions" on all Russian exports to the US and other countries. Later, speaking via video link at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Trump urged OPEC and Saudi Arabia to lower oil prices, which, according to him, would "immediately" halt the war in Ukraine. For his part, Putin stated that the presidents of Russia and the US should meet, "based on the realities of today," and have a calm discussion on all matters of mutual interest. In response to Trump’s initiative, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that his country is open to negotiations, but only with firm security guarantees from the US and Europe. 

At the Davos forum, Zelenskyy emphasised that achieving peace is impossible without the deployment of international peacekeeping forces. He mentioned a figure – 200,000 people. This statement should be seen as a boycott of Trump’s initiative. What lies behind this move – a desire to secure better conditions for Ukraine or fear for his own future – remains a big question. 

Middle East 

A new phase of the Israel-Hamas deal has taken place, specifically the release of four more hostages by the group. 

According to sources, Israel is also expecting Hamas to provide a full list of the names of hostages to be released during the first 42-day phase of the agreement, along with detailed information on their health condition.  

Meanwhile, clashes have intensified in the West Bank. It remains unclear whether this can be considered a new front against Israel, but the unrest, particularly in the city of Jenin, has become so widespread that Israel is conducting a large-scale operation, including airstrikes. 

One of the main ongoing issues remains Iran. Severely weakened on its proxy fronts, Tehran seems to be putting in considerable diplomatic efforts to avoid a strike from Israel and the US. Meanwhile, Trump has stated that Iran acquiring nuclear weapons would lead the world to disaster. 

"The only thing I've said about Iran -- and I want them to have a great country, they have great potential, the people are amazing -- The only thing I said about Iran, is they can't have a nuclear weapon and they are religious zealots," Trump said during an interview with Fox News. 

However, Trump refrained from addressing the issue of potentially eliminating Iran's nuclear facilities, leading many observers to speculate about the possibility of a peaceful resolution to the matter.