EU mission in Armenia: Tool for provocation and destabilisation Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

As previously reported, the EU Council has extended the mandate of the European Union’s intelligence mission in Armenia for another two years, with a budget of 44 million euros, until February 19, 2027. This decision was made despite Baku's high-level recommendation to the EU to avoid following France's path and falling under its influence if it wants to continue cooperation with Azerbaijan. The EU did not heed this advice and went ahead with the extension of the mission’s mandate, which, naturally, will contribute to increasing tensions in the region.

Why does the EU refuse to promote stability in the South Caucasus? How will developments in the region unfold as a result? These questions were addressed by Caliber.Az's correspondent to Azerbaijani and Russian political experts.

According to Azerbaijani MP and political analyst Rasim Musabayov, Azerbaijan has already expressed its point of view.

"The extension of this mission’s mandate will not enhance security along the conditional border. On the contrary, it may lead to additional risks. As far as I know, the members of this mission are even being allowed to carry personal weapons. But what if one of them, in a panic, shoots in the night at the rustling of a wolf, fox, or hare, and, God forbid, injures someone—whether it's an Armenian shepherd or an Azerbaijani border guard? It’s clear that a very strong response will follow.

Do Europeans need such a headache? I don’t think so. Moreover, as President Ilham Aliyev said, if someone from the Azerbaijani side sneezes loudly, the representatives of this mission will quickly retreat, whether they are former spies or police officers. The essence of this mission is, essentially, very clear: to observe a potential theatre of military operations and, secondly, to assert the presence of European forces. However, it is evident that behind them stands France and its fabricated role in the security system of the South Caucasus," the political analyst emphasized.

According to him, France, through the European Union, aims to establish a foothold in the South Caucasus. But does this increase the level of security in the region?

"I highly doubt it because we have already seen how poorly France performed in a number of African countries, and what happened with its presence in Lebanon and Syria. Besides inflated ambitions, France, without hiding under the EU umbrella, is unable to achieve anything here. Azerbaijan has expressed its confusion and negative stance towards the extension of this mission. And the fact that the EU went ahead with it will not increase Azerbaijan's respect for the EU nor improve our relations with it. Thankfully, Azerbaijan does not rely on EU financial handouts or any kind of preferences. But the EU today is very much dependent on Azerbaijan's energy resources and logistics," Musabayov noted.

According to Russian political analyst and publicist Kirill Sitnikov, the EU has once again proven that its goals in the South Caucasus are completely destructive, as they undermine the spirit of negotiations and the establishment of peace in the region.

"Is the EU not aware that Azerbaijan categorically rejects such initiatives? Of course, they are aware. Haven’t they heard the opinion of the President of Azerbaijan on this matter in Brussels? I believe they have. Could it be that the need to 'monitor' the so-called border is more important than the threat that extending the mission could undermine the peace dialogue between Baku and Yerevan, as well as tarnish the relations between Baku and Brussels?

And here we come to the conclusion that France and its allies, who are shaping this mission, are not pursuing peaceful goals. The task of these European missionaries seems to be espionage, monitoring not only Azerbaijan's territory from the Armenian border but also those of Türkiye, Russia, and Iran. However, it seems that Brussels does not take into account that Azerbaijan is capable of responding to such unfriendly gestures. By catering to France's ambitions in this way, Brussels is seriously undermining its own relations with Baku, all for something that, as the saying goes, is not worth the effort.

Moreover, I dare to suggest that such ‘bull in a china shop’ tactics, in which the EU plays the role, are not driven by great intelligence but rather as a continuation of the pro-Armenian policy of the Biden administration. These games are possibly happening out of inertia. However, when Trump starts revisiting Biden's legacy in the South Caucasus and the U.S. failures in the region, I believe the political course will change dramatically: Washington will realise that it made the wrong bet on Yerevan, and attempts to establish trusting relations with Baku—the key moderator of processes in the region—will resume. Following Trump, Brussels will obediently begin to reconsider its pro-Armenian rhetoric," summed up Sitnikov.