Growing defiance among Iranian Azerbaijanis amid strained relations between Baku, Tehran Ethnic minorities quest for justice

The recent war of words between Azerbaijan and Iran has no end as both states keep obtaining more bellicose rhetoric and accusing each other of provocative actions. The situation is aggravated by the mounting pressure on the ethnic Azerbaijanis in northwestern and northern Iran amid violent mass riots that caused criticism of Azerbaijani public figures and state officials.

The situation worsened when Azerbaijani Security Service launched a crackdown on the Iranian-linked spy network, arrested 19 people, and claimed that they were trained and funded by Iran’s intelligence services to carry out unspecified acts that would be “in violation of state security interests.” Shortly afterward, the government arrested five more people on spying and treason charges and provided detailed information regarding their contacts with the Iranian security agencies.

On November 11, 2022, during the Samarkand summit of the Turkic leaders, President Ilham Aliyev openly voiced his concerns regarding the inability of around 40 million to study in their native language. Following this speech, more state officials, such as MPs Sabir Rustamkhanli, a prominent critic of Iran since the early 1990s, and Jeyhun Mammadov, the former rector of Theology Institute, embraced President Aliyev's critical position stressing the necessity of strict measures to counter Iranian influence.

Moreover, the diplomatic standoff between Baku – Tehran revived Azerbaijan’s relations with some well-known exiled anti-Iranian activists such as literature professor Mahmudali Chohraganli, the founder of the South Azerbaijan National Awakening Movement (Gamoh). Once winning the election to the Iranian parliament in 1995, Chohraganli was not allowed to take his seat. He relocated to the US shortly after residing in Azerbaijan. Gamoh opposes what it calls "Persian chauvinism," demanding more cultural rights for Azeris and a future Iranian government with a federal structure resembling the United States in which Azeris can have their own flag and parliament. Amid tensions, Chohraganli made a comeback on Azerbaijani state television, harshly criticizing Iran due to its genuine threats against Azerbaijan.

Fueled with vocal criticism and threats, Iran summoned the Azerbaijani ambassador in Tehran twice in a row to protest over the growing anti-Iranian sentiments and rhetoric in Azerbaijan referring to a "good partnership with Azerbaijan," though it has had little impact on the process. Therefore, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Nasser Kanani has said that no one has the right to misunderstand Iran's policy and encouraged regional states “to abstain from any provocation against Tehran.”

The diplomatic tensions between Baku and Tehran occurred amid the latter’s growing domestic violence in major cities and provinces. Since the eruption of riots, a total of 344 protesters, including 52 children, were killed throughout the country so far, according to the foreign-based human rights agency HRANA.

Indeed, Iran appears to be concerned with the rising anti-Iranian sentiments in Azerbaijan and the northern part of Iran, populated mainly by ethnic Azerbaijani minorities. The escalation of dissent among ethnic Azeri community in Iran aggravated situation in Baku as people cautiously watch the process. The government of Iran has never provided data on the population of the country's ethnic groups. However, during his official visit to Turkey in January 2011, then-Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi stated that 40 percent of Iranians speak Turkish.

"Freedom, justice and national government" has become a common slogan on the streets of Tabriz, Urmia and Ardabil, the three largest Azerbaijani-Turkish population centers in northwestern Iran in anti-government protests which started in mid-September and continue currently. For many years, ethnic minorities in Iran, including ethnic Azeris have been barred from education in their native tongue, which complicates the situation even more.

While public discontent and debates regarding Iran's destructive role are surging in Azerbaijan, the authorities in Baku began frequently highlighting the violation of basic rights of ethnic Azerbaijanis living under the Islamist regime. Traditionally, Azerbaijan has long been distancing itself from the issue of the ethnic Azeri minority in Iran abstaining from vocal criticism. This can be attributed to Azerbaijan's pragmatic foreign policy discourse that envisaged non-interference in the domestic affairs of neighboring countries, particularly Iran.

However, the 2020 war campaign between Azerbaijan and Armenia shifted the geopolitical order and the rules of the "great game" in the South Caucasus region. The disappearance of the long-term status quo made Azerbaijan's balanced approach to Iran less relevant, especially at a time of anti-Azerbaijani rhetoric stemming from Iran. As such, Azerbaijani state media and government officials recently began highlighting the brutality of the Iranian regime against ethnic minorities, namely the sizeable Azeri minority, and the chauvinist approach of the local authorities. According to various reports, non-Persian ethnic groups in Iran make up around 50 percent of the population, yet they are overwhelmingly marginalized.

In this vein, Azerbaijan sees the momentum to exert more pressure on Iran and thwart back its anti-Azerbaijani rhetoric. Indeed, the ethnic Azeri minority in Iran, like other numerous ethnic groups, has been under pressure for years while well-documented dissidents have been jailed. One of popular Azeri dissidents, Hossein Ronaghi was arrested in September for active participation in mass riots and later announced a hunger strike as a protest to arrest and torture.

In an interview with VOA, Mahsa Mehdili, an exiled political activist in Turkey, said that “these slogans show that Azerbaijani Turks want to take part in anti-government protests with their own identity and demands.”

The active involvement of ethnic Azeris in recent riots against the regime led to the involvement of other Turkish-speaking communities. As such, a group of Qashqai Turks were seen shouting the same slogan in videos taken at the funeral of Qashqai Turk author and community leader Esedullah Merdani Rahimi, held in Shiraz on October 24.

Another anti-Iranian activist Yousef Azizi Benitorof, an Iranian Arab writer and journalist stated that "People in Tabriz, Urmia, Ardabil and other cities have been chanting 'freedom, justice and national government' since the peoples of Iran that became a rights manifesto of people of Azerbaijan in order to create a federal system for Iran and a federal government for the Turkish-populated region of Azerbaijan. By raising this slogan, the revolution of the Iranian peoples has taken a step forward."

Hence, it is evident that with much of its energy and funds exhausted in fighting battles in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, Tehran has become weak on its home front. Therefore, with its main enemy defeated, Azerbaijan has already signaled its interest in supporting ethno-nationalist claims in Iran. This has only further emboldened mass riots against the regime within large ethnic Azeri community. The current tensions have not caused a direct military conflict between the two neighbors but instigated mutual security concerns. The national security concern will likely remain a crucial factor in Azerbaijan's counter-strategy against Iran's threats in the near future.