How did Ukraine strike deep inside Russia? Calm before the storm

On August 30, Ukraine launched drones against targets in six Russian regions, including an attack on an airport in the western city of Pskov – located near the borders of Latvia and Estonia – where military transport aircraft were reported damaged amid explosions and a huge fire. The Russian Emergencies Ministry has reported that two Il-76 military transport aircraft have "caught fire" due to the drone attack.

Some argue that the recent drone attack is the largest campaign of Ukraine since the war with Russia unfolded in 2022. The attack destroyed two IL-76 aircraft at the airport, which caused significant damage to Russia.

Reportedly, this attack was a retaliation of Kyiv to Moscow's recent drone attacks on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, leaving dozens dead. On August 18, Russia launched Shahed drones at Kyiv from various directions and then targeted the capital with missiles from Tu-95MS strategic aircraft. On the same day, Ukraine's air defences destroyed 28 cruise missiles and 15 of 16 Iranian-made Shahed attack drones targeting the capital and multiple regions across the country.

While this attack is not Ukraine's first attack against Russian cities, Kyiv intensified occasional drone and explosive attacks against Russia amid its ongoing counteroffensive in eastern Ukraine. A few days earlier, Russia managed to destroy four rapid Ukrainian boats carrying a total of about 50 soldiers in an operation on the Black Sea.

Moreover, on August 19, the Russian military had downed three Ukrainian drones over the southern region of Bryansk and one over the central region of Oryol. Although the results of such operations are limited, they frequently cause discontent in the Russian public, boosting the fear of total insecurity. For example, Ukrainian drones have attacked facilities deep inside Russia. On the night of 22–23 August, one hit a high-rise building located in the Moscow City business complex.

Moreover, on August 6, Moscow's Vnukovo airport was temporarily closed when Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin reported that a drone strike on the Russian capital had been parried. Shortly earlier, on July 30, the airport was also closed after reports of drone attacks. Ukraine did not immediately comment on the reports and rarely publicly claimed responsibility for attacks inside Russia or on Russian-controlled territory in Ukraine.

The main narrative of Kyiv is that the drone and missile attacks on Russia's military infrastructure help a counteroffensive and distract Moscow. Considering this fact, Kyiv is primarily keen to inflict grave damage on the Russian logistics route, which explains frequent attacks on the Crimean Bridge. Therefore, the attack on the bridge in July should come as a surprise.

The July attack marked the second major attack against the Crimean bridge with the help of marine-based drones. The bridge is a vital re-supply route for Russian forces occupying parts of southern Ukraine. It is one of the key ways Moscow reinforces its troops in Crimea - a Ukrainian territory annexed by Russia in 2014 - and the southern Kherson region.

With the successfully carried out operations, Ukraine had shown that it was more than capable of penetrating Russia's defence lines. The failure of Russia to exercise a more fierce military response prompted Ukraine to hit the major ammunition depot in Crimea on July 22, forcing the evacuation of nearby homes. Nevertheless, these attacks were not helpful in completely destroying the Russian defence lines, though to some extent weakened them.

Indeed, the significant weapon requests of Kyiv from its Western partners enable it to carry out accurate attacks on Russian targets. As such, the Crimean depot was hit with the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), a highly accurate tactical ballistic missile, which can be fired from any of the Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) sent to Ukraine in the past months, including the much-celebrated U.S. M142 HIMARS.

Ukraine's strategy in the counteroffensive is to try to complicate Russia's logistics efforts. The big question is whether that is sufficient to weaken Russian defences so that Ukraine can achieve that breakthrough. While many in the West and Ukraine celebrate Russia’s tactical losses and damages, some are concerned that the frequent drone attacks on Russian cities will provoke a deadly reaction from Moscow. However, until now, the Kremlin has not taken major steps to "punish Kyiv, " triggering criticism at home.

Ukraine’s drone and missile attacks on the Russian military infrastructure will likely weaken Russia's defence lines but will not cause a major breakthrough in this war. Ukraine will need to re-route all resources to focus on the ongoing counteroffensive and liberate as many territories as possible until the end of 2023 before Western support begins depleting.