Iranian paradox: Society against Hamas attack on Israel Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

Iran will not fight Israel on the side of Hamas, Reuters reports. Citing three Iranian officials, it reports that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei informed Hamas leaders that Tehran will not go to war with Israel.

Ayatollah Khamenei, at a meeting with the head of the Hamas Politburo, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran, reproached the Palestinians for not reporting the attack on Israel in advance. In addition, Khamenei demanded that Haniyeh silence representatives of the Palestinian group who publicly called on Iran and Hezbollah to enter into a full-scale war against Israel. The Supreme Leader also said that Iran has no intention of entering this war. That is, Iran will continue to support Hamas politically and morally, but will not directly intervene in the conflict.

Reuters, citing six officials familiar with the matter, said Iran would not intervene directly in the conflict unless it was directly attacked by the United States or Israel. Instead, Iran intends to continue to use its proxy groups to strike Israeli and American targets.

On the day of the attack on Israel, Hamas military commander Mohammed Deif called on all allies in the Axis of Resistance, an unofficial political and military coalition led by Iran, to join the war.

“Our brothers in the Islamic resistance in Lebanon, Iran, Yemen, Iraq, and Syria, this is the day when your resistance will unite with your people in Palestine,” he said in an audio message.

How can one evaluate the content of the conversation between Khamenei and one of the Hamas leaders? Is the information from Reuters sources true? Could the current war in Israel really happen without Tehran's knowledge?

Renowned experts in the region answered these questions from Caliber.Az.

Deputy Director of the Kyiv Center for Middle Eastern Studies Serhiy Danilov notes that there are two equal versions.

“According to the first version, the Iranian leadership did not know about the large-scale Hamas operation. An alternative view is based on numerous warnings from US intelligence agencies and even the Egyptian president to the Israeli government that ‘something big is brewing’ in Gaza,” he says.

According to the expert, rumors circulate very quickly and always find the right ears in the Middle East.

“Under such circumstances, it is difficult to admit that the Iranian authorities were completely unaware of the preparations for the October 7 attack. Another thing is that Tehran did not intend to stop Hamas, obviously expecting to receive dividends from the flaring-up conflict. The first reaction in Tehran on October 7 only confirms this hypothesis. Iranian media strongly emphasized the success of the massacre and published videos from the scene of the massacre of Israeli civilians. Even Hamas propaganda did not broadcast such footage as channels controlled by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps,” the expert recalled.

In his opinion, Tehran hoped that the Israeli response would destabilize Egypt and Jordan, that it would be possible to rock Saudi Arabia, and Iran would be able to receive the prize without directly entering the war.

“However, the further course of events did not confirm these forecasts and Tehran has to look for a way to relieve itself of responsibility for the fate of the loser Hamas,” Danilov concludes.

In turn, Iranian political expert and specialist in Russian-Iranian relations Amir Mohammadi Chahaki is convinced that Iran did not participate in preparing the Hamas attack on Israeli territory.

“Iran is not connected with this; this operation was prepared for at least a year and several months. Why do I think so? It must be understood that Iran has never done anything simply based on the slogan of destroying Israel. This is a political slogan that was invented by former President Ahmadinejad, unfortunately. And now he is completely silent and says nothing about it.

Seriously, what threat did this October 7 attack pose to Israel? None - this state was and will be. Yes, this event is a shame for all the security forces of Israel, and there are many questions about them, but this could not become a motivation for Iran to start a war with a very strong state in a military sense. For what?

We also need to keep in mind that today Iran is more or less calm after those protests in connection with the death of Mahsa Amini, when a movement for equal rights for women and men appeared.

It should definitely be noted that the people of Iran do not support Hamas and Hezbollah. During street protests, one could see banners with the words “Neither Gaza nor Lebanon – my life is for Iran,” the expert said.

That is, he says, one must understand that in such conditions an attack on Israel would create even more motivation for the Iranian opposition to take active action against the Iranian authorities.

“Thus, Tehran is not interested in direct confrontation with Israel. It would not have supported a Hamas attack even if Hamas had told it about it in advance. I think even if this had happened, Khamenei would have opposed the attack because it would not bring any benefit to Iran. This war cannot be productive for Iran. Another thing is that supporting Hamas and condemning Israel is already politics.

“It should also be emphasized that Iran now has the opportunity to improve its reputation in the Arab world. After all, most Arabs support Hamas. Against this background, Iran seems to be one with them. This is another trump card in the game with America. Iran desperately needs to revive the nuclear deal and its oil exports.

“I would like to note that Russia is benefiting from the ongoing war - because attention from Ukraine spread to Gaza, and Iran - because it was also the center of negative attention. That is, there is a benefit for Tehran in continuing this war, but it did not start it. And it is also unable to finish it,” Chakhaki said.

Western countries at the government level support Israel, he noted.

“At the same time, public opinion there differs significantly from that of governments. In Iran, on the contrary, society condemns the attack on Israel, unlike the ruling elite.

“That is, Iran did not know about the preparation and plan of this Hamas attack. And if it found out, then I even admit that it would share this information with the United States - for the sake of reciprocally satisfying its interests. There are elections in 2024, and it is important for the authorities that Raisi remains president. And for this, they need to ensure economic stability.

“Iran would not support Hamas's decision if it knew about it in advance - because there is no prospect of victory. And it would not want the Lebanese Hezbollah, which depends on it, to be included in this confrontation,” the Iranian specialist concluded.