“Lucky loser” and the cost of the French crisis Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

Political instability in France could slow the country’s economic growth and result in losses of €15 billion by the end of 2025. These sobering conclusions come from the French Observatory for Economic Conditions (OFCE). According to the OFCE, the political crisis that began in June 2024 after the dissolution of the National Assembly by French President Emmanuel Macron—and has continued due to government reshuffles—will reduce France’s economic growth in 2025 by 0.6%.

Now, concerns are rising within the European Union that France’s protracted crisis could affect the growth prospects of the eurozone and negotiations over the bloc’s long-term €2 trillion budget. In this way, Macron’s policies threaten the stability not only of France but of the entire EU.

The French president, for his part, continues to favour flashy political statements with ambitions of European leadership.

To what problems in Europe could France’s general political crisis lead, and what are Macron’s chances of steering the country out of the crisis with minimal losses?

According to Belarusian political analyst, PhD in Political Science, and Francophone expert Borislav Osinchuk, President Macron, through his political and economic failures—particularly the constant reshuffling of governments—has effectively nullified all the hopes that the French once placed in him.

“Currently, a petition has appeared online from a number of former members of France’s socio-liberal political party Renaissance, who had once urged the French to support Macron and place full trust in him.

Until 2022, the party Renaissance was known as La République en Marche! (“Forward, Republic!”)—the movement where Emmanuel Macron’s political career began. But now even they are calling on the electorate not to trust the French president and openly express their disappointment with Macron’s policies.

This is quite telling, since even the most loyal former allies are voicing their distrust of Macron, meaning the French president is losing his most devoted support base. Naturally, this directly affects public opinion and Macron’s approval rating in France.

There is a sense that Macron is constantly testing the resilience of his political image, and this has now become a kind of extreme game for him. Yet what is at stake is the welfare of millions of French citizens and France’s authority as a global power.

Thus, the far-left French politician Jean-Luc Mélenchon stated that the only way to end the political deadlock in France is for Macron himself to resign. According to Mélenchon, this is the option the French leader has repeatedly ruled out—but now it has become the only viable one.

Macron’s only chance to survive and avoid disappearing into a political collapse is, after all, to compromise his ambitions and form a government including representatives of his political opponents. But this is precisely what he desperately refuses to do. It seems that, for him, this step is a trigger for political defeat, rather than a response to the actions of millions of French citizens under his leadership. This, some analysts in France call the ‘Macron paradox,’” concluded Osinchuk.

Georgian political analyst and international affairs expert Teimuraz Garishvili believes that President Macron has today become a symbol for all of Europe of failure and the collapse of political adventurism.

“Problems in France, the decline of Macron’s approval rating at home—all of this affects his foreign-policy authority. Respect for Macron in Europe is falling. Of course, this does not mean that every international political forum sees him as a loser, but he has undeniably become the subject of a number of political memes circulating across Europe.

Macron is sometimes called, for example, a ‘lucky loser,’ highlighting his ability to remain in power for so long despite grand political fiascos, and to weather them with relative calm. Any other politician would likely have simply apologised to the French people and resigned, triggering early presidential elections.

But this does not happen—Macron is desperately attempting a new political experiment in the form of yet another government, which will most likely fail once again.

However, Macron is learning something: his political arrogance and haughty statements have noticeably quieted, and today the French president is trying to build contacts with various political forces, including in foreign policy.

One cannot fail to notice Macron’s ingratiating tone and overly positive rhetoric in dealings with Presidents Erdoğan and Aliyev. His political failures and the collapse of his plans in the South Caucasus have now taken a back seat—Macron simply has other priorities. He now appears in a more diplomatic and friendly role,” concluded Garishvili.