Military expert on Ukrainian conflict status quo Caliber.Az interview with Agil Rustamzadeh

In an interview Caliber.Az, an Azerbaijani independent military expert, Agil Rustamzadeh, has said that a successful Ukrainian stand-off will inevitably lead to a softening of Russia's position in the peace talks.

- It’s been nearly a year since the start of the war in Ukraine. How would you outline the current status quo of the warring sides?

- Both sides are in a similar position, so neither side has achieved a decisive advantage or achieved notable victories. However, as Western weapons arrive in Ukraine, the preconditions surface for the situation to change in Ukraine's favour.

- Media space is full of forecasts of an imminent large-scale Russian offensive on the Ukrainian front. There are reports that 500,000 troops and 1,200 tanks have been mobilised. How would you comment on the likelihood of such a scenario?

- The news about the forthcoming major offensive by the Russian troops was nothing more than a propaganda move, a kind of hype, and I have more than once stated that such an offensive is simply impossible due to the depletion of Russian military resources. The whole further course of military operations proved this, and today the Russian army is only launching an offensive in the direction of Bakhmut. They have neither the strength nor the means for a larger-scale action.

- From my point of view two factors suggest a long-running character of this war: Russia's increased ability to purchase electronic components to produce high-precision missiles and other equipment, and increased arms deliveries to Ukraine from the West. Do you agree with me?

- This factor is partly responsible for the protraction of hostilities, but a much more significant factor is the strategic planning of the West, which seeks to deplete Russia first and foremost economically.

- Information about the use of Bayraktar UAVs in the battle zone has disappeared from virtually all media outlets despite the fact that a significant number have been supplied to Ukraine. Does this mean that these UAVs were not effective in the face of Russian air defences, or maybe they are being saved for special occasions?

- UAVs should be used jointly with other measures, such as combating air defence, electronic warfare, air supremacy, etc. Unfortunately, Ukraine is currently unable to provide all these conditions and the use of any drones under such conditions becomes ineffective.

- It was recently reported that the US has supplied Poland with a large number of MQ 9 Reaper UAVs, which, as was stated in the media, will conduct reconnaissance flights along the border with Ukraine. However, it is known that the MQ 9 Reaper can operate not only reconnaissance missions but also combat missions. In addition, the range of this drone is 1800 kilometres. Why, in your opinion, would Poland need such a formidable weapon with such a range? Doesn't it speak of potential Polish interference in military operations in Ukraine? Or is it rather an act of psychological pressure on the Russian side, a warning against a possible invasion of Polish territory, after the cases of Russian missiles over the territory of Romania and Moldova?

- Poland is actively beefing up its military capacity, with many types of western weapons being supplied there. As for the MQ 9 Reaper specifically, it would be impossible to use them to attack Russian territory, as the AFU did with the TU 141 Strizh. The Strizh's flight altitude is low, which allowed this drone to pass through a gap in Russian air defences and strike an airfield in Kaluga. The MQ 9 Reaper's flight altitude is high, which would make it an easy target in the lack of the conditions I mentioned in the answer to the previous question.

- Recently, the rhetoric of Russian politicians has softened somewhat and there have been statements about the possibility of negotiations between the sides. Does this mean that the Ukrainian army has withstood the tests and, with the West’s support and also with the help of military victories, persuade the enemy to even more serious concessions on the political level?

- I am not a political scientist, but I will answer, as the course of this war affects political processes around the world. A successful Ukrainian stand-off indeed will inevitably lead to a softening of Russia's position in the peace talks that will certainly take place in the foreseeable future.

- Rumours floating around about Chinese arms deliveries to Russia. To what extent Chinese military and economic aid could impact the course of the war?

- I believe that these are nothing more than rumours. By all accounts, China has no intention of taking part in the war on Russia's side, especially since the latter's position is far from rosy.