"Now everything depends on the outcome of the war in Ukraine..." Caliber.Az from Tbilisi

Caliber.Az had an interview with Gia Nodia, former Minister of Education and Science of Georgia (under Mikheil Saakashvili governance), Head of Caucasus Institute of Peace, Democracy, and Development.

- What is your assessment of Tbilisi's current foreign policy course? Does it differ from the line of the government you were a member of?

- I would call the current course somewhat incomprehensible, inconsistent, and even bifurcated. On the one hand, Georgia maintains its pro-Western policy, we have applied for EU membership, and we supported Ukraine in the war. On the other hand, there are rumours in the country that the West wants to drag us into the war, they spread absurd theories, which is why the EU representative in Georgia Hartzel said he did not understand what Georgia's policy is all about.

- What is being done to restore the territorial integrity of Georgia?

- Nothing is being done... It is difficult to take any action because our territories are occupied by Russia. Any attempt to get them back would lead to a war with Moscow, which neither the government nor the opposition supports.

- Do you think Georgia still needs to join NATO?

- This question has been postponed indefinitely. Western observers are dissatisfied with our democracy, they say Georgia is moving in an authoritarian direction and that anti-Western groups are operating here.

Our government first signed the "Charles Michel Agreement," and then threw it in the trash by getting out of it.

The arrest of the editor-in-chief of Georgia's independent TV channel and recent events have meanwhile shown that Tbilisi is indeed getting closer to an authoritarian regime.

- A "referendum" on unification with Russia is frozen in South Ossetia. Is Moscow trying to put pressure on Tbilisi in this way?

- It cannot be ruled out. This may well be one of the tools of pressure. Moreover, Georgia is not in a position to resist Russia as Ukraine does.

- How long will Georgia have to wait for full membership in the EU?

- At this stage, accession seems to be impossible. Now we are waiting for the EU's response to our application, but I think we have little chance of getting a positive response. But if we are accepted, it would be a historic breakthrough that would give us significant prospects.

- What is your assessment of the Azerbaijan-Turkiye-Georgia cooperation format?

- This is a reliable format, which has confirmed its importance over 30 years. It is beneficial for all three countries.

- How do you assess the results of the Brussels meetings of the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia?

- I think it will be very difficult to reach any agreement because it is not easy for the sides to make concessions to each other. Especially since the opposition against Pashinyan is intensifying. Azerbaijan also has no motivation to make concessions, so, again, it will be very difficult.

The meetings between the two leaders are, of course, very important. They should be welcomed, they show the desire of the heads of states to establish contact. During the war in 2020, it became clear that the West does not influence the resolution of the Karabakh conflict. This sphere was monopolized by Russia, probably together with Turkiye. And today's meetings in Brussels once again prove that Europe is an important player for Russia.

- So, it turns out that Brussels has more chances to facilitate the reconciliation of Baku and Yerevan?

- It is very difficult to find a formula for the reconciliation of the two countries. I do not think Brussels can force them to peace, so I do not want to exaggerate the role of the West. Apparently, the countries will solve other issues before coming to final reconciliation. In that sense, Brussels can influence the state of relations.

- But will there still be this reconciliation?

- It requires a political solution. There will always be antagonism, just as there will always be forces fomenting it. As long as there is no final political solution, we should not expect reconciliation.

- How do you assess the current level of the Azerbaijani-Georgian relations?

- In general, they are good, but they can and should be deepened. This is not related to specific countries, but Georgia's foreign policy is very passive, which can be felt in relations with many countries.

- Will the war in Ukraine have an impact on our countries?

- Definitely, it will. If Russia wins, it will strengthen its special position in the region. But defeat will weaken its influence and strengthen the West.

- How do you see the future of our region?

- It's hard to predict something concrete. Everything depends on the outcome of the war in Ukraine...