Pakistan-Iran: Cooperation as opposed to US and India? Regional analysis by Caliber.Az

Global processes amid the world order redistribution actualized the agenda of the leading countries on the issues of international security and the normalization of relations with the neighbors. This is evident in the marked rapprochement between Pakistan and Iran in spite of the once complex and controversial relations between them.

Last week, Sikander Ahmed Shah, international law advisor to Pakistan's former foreign minister, said that closer engagement with Tehran, especially on energy security and counterterrorism, ensures Pakistan's future needs and prosperity. Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif also noted the high importance of Iran's factor in implementing joint projects with Pakistan. For its part, the Iranian side is also showing reciprocal interest in Pakistan, a fact that Brigadier General Hossein Salami, Commander-in-Chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, noted during his recent meeting with General Nadeem Raza, Chairman of Pakistan's Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Judging by the optimistic statements from both sides, Pakistan-Iran relations have emerged from the protracted crisis. However, the question is whether the future agenda of their rapprochement will be limited to energy cooperation and the fight against terrorism.

Iran is trying to expand its regional ties with Pakistan just as it did with Afghanistan and Iraq, that is, mainly to reduce US economic pressure. It is appropriate to recall that it was because of Washington's pressure on Islamabad at one time that Iran's initiative to build a pipeline for pumping energy from the southern part of the country to Pakistan and India (dubbed the "Peace Pipeline") failed. Later, in 2012, the US put a lot of effort into the Silk Road project to create the TAPI transit pipeline - from Turkmenistan to Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India, bypassing Iran. Therefore, the intensification of trade and economic relations with Pakistan is not only a benefit for Iran but also a kind of counterbalance to the policy of the White House. This is one of the reasons why it is fundamentally important for Iran to find a consensus with Pakistan on security and counterterrorism issues.

The Afghan factor as a stumbling block

On the other hand, the Afghan factor is the most controversial point in Iran-Pakistan relations. Terrorist groups on the Afghan-Pakistani border and their actions against Iran from the border regions of Pakistan cause discontent in Tehran. Therefore, the Iranian side has repeatedly accused Pakistan of failing to provide clear border control. Former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani discussed this issue with Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi in April of last year. At that time, the Iranian side clearly indicated the US military presence as a factor destabilizing security in the region. The current Iranian authorities hold the same position.

Is Tehran changing its foreign policy orientation?

In principle, it is clear that the revision of Iran's foreign policy towards rapprochement with its neighbors in the region, in particular with Pakistan, is fundamentally necessary because of the US factor. It is known that Iran has been under the yoke of Western sanctions for more than 30 years, and only thanks to the fact that the country is the leader in oil production among OPEC countries, its economy has not collapsed completely. So, it is fundamentally important for Iran to find new markets for its oil, and Pakistan's needs are a profitable alternative. By the way, relatively recently Islamabad has put forward a proposal on the need to legalize the import of oil from Iran to Pakistan in order to reduce the price of petroleum products in the country. According to The Express Tribune, Faisal Karim Kundi, spokesman for the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), made such an initiative at a press conference for journalists in Lahore, emphasizing the benefits to the country of exporting cheap oil from Iran.

However, the US sanctions policy against Iran has pursued different goals in different years. Since the early 1980s, the US has been trying to limit the growth of Iran's strategic power in the Middle East by imposing sanctions. First, the US imposed a ban on international organizations issuing loans to Iran, and later it also prohibited all countries to sell weapons to it and provide any military assistance. And since the mid-2000s the nature of US sanctions policy against Iran has changed due to the actualization of its nuclear program.

It should be noted that in 2015 the US, France, Britain, Germany, China, Russia, and Iran signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), in which they agreed not to impose sanctions on Tehran in exchange for its refusal to develop nuclear weapons. In 2018, the US under former President Donald Trump withdrew from the deal, accusing Iran of violating the agreement and imposing sanctions on it. Iran responded by reneging on some of its commitments and continued to enrich uranium beyond the permitted level. In September 2021, US President Joe Biden said that the US was ready to return to compliance with the nuclear deal with Iran if Tehran took similar steps. In December of the same year, a new round of negotiations on Iran's nuclear program was held in Vienna, which was attended by representatives of all countries on the JCPOA.

When the positions converge...

It is important to note that Pakistan's position on the Iran nuclear deal is unambiguous. Islamabad supports Tehran's peaceful nuclear program and the continuation of the Vienna talks. This was confirmed, among other things, by the meeting between the Iranian Ambassador to Pakistan Mohammad Ali Hosseini, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in June this year, after which the latter expressed his gratitude to Iran for supporting the people of Kashmir. If previously the Iranian side was neutral on this issue and did not support either side, now Shehbaz Sharif's statements are equivalent to a message that there has been some movement from the Iranian side in favor of Pakistan's position. The conclusion from all of the above is that at this stage of rapprochement in the priority issues for Pakistan and Iran, both sides are equally capable of supporting each other, creating a dual alliance against the interests of the United States and India.