Quiet signals of big politics Baku and Moscow bring the dialogue back to substance

After the meeting between the Presidents of Azerbaijan and Russia on October 9 in Dushanbe, it became clear that the pause in relations between the two countries is gradually giving way to a cautious but meaningful movement towards normalisation. Until recently, the tone of bilateral dialogue seemed overloaded with distrust and emotional reactions. However, the meeting between Aliyev and Putin demonstrated that both sides are ready to return to a direct and calm conversation.

To begin with, the Russian side has effectively acknowledged responsibility for the tragedy of last December involving the crash of the Azerbaijani aircraft. For the first time, not only words of regret were expressed, but also promises — to pay compensation, bring those responsible to justice, and complete the investigation within an objective framework. This moment can be seen as an important turning point: when evasive wording is replaced by a willingness to call things by their proper names, dialogue becomes possible. It is precisely this approach — without emotional outbursts, but with a clear acknowledgement of responsibility — that lays the foundation for restoring trust.

For Azerbaijan, this is a matter of justice: relations become stable only when they are built on mutual respect and a readiness to recognise facts. For Russia, it is an opportunity to demonstrate that acknowledging mistakes does not diminish dignity but, on the contrary, strengthens trust. Ultimately, both sides benefit from returning to a practical and businesslike format of cooperation.

In this context, it is important to emphasise that the attempts by certain groups in Moscow — politicians, media figures, and their patrons within the authorities — to portray relations between Azerbaijan and Russia as irreparably crisis-stricken have failed.

It is now reasonable to expect that, following the signal given at the level of the heads of state, practical steps will follow. One such step could be an end to the pressure on Azerbaijanis living in Russia who are also its citizens. This is a crucial point, as in recent months their situation has become an indicator of how much Russia’s domestic political trends can affect interstate relations. It is likely that after the Dushanbe meeting, the relevant institutions — particularly those in the security sector — have received the necessary guidance. If these signals are properly understood, it may mark the beginning of genuine de-escalation on a human level.

Of course, it is too early to speak of a full restoration of trust. Too many factors still require time and careful decisions. Yet the very fact that Moscow and Baku are once again engaged in a direct and calm dialogue already signals a return to rationality. It reflects an understanding that neighbourhood is not a choice but a given — and that only constant dialogue can turn this reality into a source of stability rather than mutual reproach.

The key is to maintain this communication in the format established after the Dushanbe meeting. The world around is changing rapidly, and both countries must build their relations as equal partners — on the basis of mutual respect and a clear understanding of each other’s interests. The coming period will test how ready both sides are to consolidate this cautious but nonetheless positive shift.

Caliber.Az will continue to follow the developments closely.