Russia's offer of dialogue raises hopes for reconciliation A path to peace or “long game” in Georgia?

As earlier reported, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov expressed Moscow's willingness to facilitate peace between Georgia and the regions of Tskhinvali and Abkhazia. At a press conference following the 79th session of the UN General Assembly, he noted,"It is obvious that the current Georgian leadership is honest about the past. That's what they said: We want historical reconciliation."

The statement was met with a positive response from Georgian authorities. Kakha Kaladze, the Secretary General of the ruling Georgian Dream party, remarked that Russia’s willingness to support Georgia’s reconciliation with Abkhazia and South Ossetia is a welcome development. However, he emphasized that Tbilisi is expecting “effective steps” from Moscow in this regard.

To gain further insights, Caliber.Az reached out to Georgian experts and political analysts for their views on the situation. Their analyses shed light on the potential implications of Moscow's approach and the prospects for peace in the region.

Shota Apkhaidze, a political scientist, director of the Caucasus Center for Islamic Studies, and expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, believes that the Russian Foreign Minister's recent statements are a positive development. He views this as a demonstration of Russia's readiness to engage in negotiations, suggesting that Georgia should seize this opportunity.

“Even if the outcome does not ultimately favor Georgia, it is still essential to explore this chance. Given the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the ongoing anti-Russian sanctions, Russia has a pressing need to normalize relations with Georgia,” Apkhaidze noted.

He acknowledged that while Russia has recognized these territories as its own and maintains military presence there, Moscow is nonetheless seeking solutions. However, he cautioned that Russia may adopt a “long game” strategy.

“I do not anticipate that Russia will agree to withdraw its troops from these regions, but this represents a positive development. Moscow is making an effort to foster a more favorable relationship with the Georgian authorities, and it is essential for the Georgian leadership to pursue dialogue. Diplomacy and international law fundamentally involve the establishment of agreements, and progress does not occur overnight.

As conflict specialists and experts in international law, we understand that these issues require a nuanced approach and cannot be resolved within a year or two. A long-term perspective is necessary for any meaningful resolution.

“Should negotiations commence, they would at least facilitate the restoration of bilateral relations. Regardless of the specifics, both parties will likely propose solutions, which would foster dialogue. The nature of these solutions—whether broad autonomy, confederation, or another form of joint governance—will be the subject of further agreements.

Importantly, the current Georgian refugees, who have lived in these territories for centuries, must be allowed to return to their homes. The same applies to Abkhazian refugees. Once they are back, Georgian citizens should have the right to vote on the status and future of these territories. Everyone deserves equal rights—why should an Ossetian have the right to vote while a Georgian does not? This is a violation of international norms, especially considering the ethnocide that occurred in Georgia, which is well-documented.

As the election campaign unfolds, it is clear that the Georgian Dream party aims to restore the country’s territorial integrity and regain control of these regions. This is a logical and understandable goal. Therefore, it is not surprising to see encouraging calls for peace and understanding from the Georgian side. The pressing question remains how the Georgian Dream will navigate this complex task. However, the fact that the process is moving forward is the most significant takeaway,” Apkhaidze added.

At the same time, political scientist and founder of the Tbilisi-based research institute, SIKHA Foundation, Archil Sikharulidze, noted that the apologies to the Ossetian people, as called for by Georgian Dream leader Bidzina Ivanishvili, have already been initiated by the Georgian side. Notably, former President Mikheil Saakashvili proposed making the Abkhaz language the second official language of Georgia.  

“It’s not entirely clear why Ivanishvili's comments elicited such a strong reaction from some in Georgia. Apologizing is inevitable, especially if Georgia sees itself as the dominant party in this context.

As for Lavrov's statement, it raises questions about how well the Georgian side understands a fundamental truth: every crisis can also be an opportunity. Unfortunately, many Georgians who identify as pro-Western tend to believe that the best approach is to simply endure the crisis while adhering strictly to Western directives, dismissing any initiatives from Russia.

However, if Georgia were prepared to adopt a more independent stance, it could explore potential gains from Moscow. The key to diplomacy lies in understanding what can be offered in return. Engaging in dialogue with Russia could provide valuable opportunities for Georgia, rather than sticking rigidly to a single narrative. This is the essence of diplomacy.

Unfortunately, the Georgian political elite has been hesitant to pursue an independent diplomatic strategy over the years. Instead, they seem to prefer delegating all diplomatic matters to a new metropolis, much like they once did with Moscow, hoping that this external power will make decisions on their behalf. However, these hopes are misguided," Sikharulidze concluded.