"The Zangazur corridor is advantageous from a logistical point of view" Caliber.Az interview with expert Kirill Semyonov

 Caliber.Az had a conversation with Kirill Semyonov, an expert at the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC).

- At the beginning of December 2022, it was reported that employees of the Iranian special services were spotted on the territory of the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan where Russian peacekeepers are temporarily deployed. According to some information, they arrived there to hold subversive and terrorist exercises for the illegal gangs. Why do you think Iran engages Armenians for reconnaissance and subversive activities against Azerbaijan?

- I do not think that Iran has decided to use Armenians to conduct reconnaissance activities against Azerbaijan. By and large, this is not necessary from the logistical point of view, but also from the intelligence point of view. At the very least it is inconvenient. Using the territory of Karabakh, which is under the temporary control of Russian peacekeepers, also does not make much sense. It is easier to do it using other means in other parts of Azerbaijan, where Iran has a good network of agents. Everyone knows this, including the special services and the republic's leadership. Armenians are not of interest to Iran in this matter.

But Iran uses Armenia as a counterweight to the influence of Türkiye and Azerbaijan and to strengthen the position of this tandem in the South Caucasus. Tehran will also use Yerevan in the future to make life difficult for Türkiye and Azerbaijan.

- Could the protests in Iran develop into a revolution akin to the one that took place in the late 1970s?

- Protests have become commonplace in Iran. There has been some kind of protests, rallies, and the like in Iran over the years. This is what indicates that the Iranian authorities will not collapse from the impact of these actions. On the contrary, the Iranian leadership has developed some kind of immunity to them. The Iranian authorities already understand their paradigm, their algorithm, and the way they are structured. The Iranian leadership is learning to counteract them through these protests, so to speak, gaining experience. If the protests continue in the same vein as today, they are unlikely to lead to revolutionary actions. The IRI authorities have learned to cope with such outbursts of popular discontent.

- How does Iran react to the opening of the Azerbaijani embassy in Israel?

- Undoubtedly Tehran will react with some statements, perhaps there will be some notes, but nothing more. It is necessary to understand that it is not Israel that opens a military base in the territory of Azerbaijan, but Baku opens its embassy in Israel. Here it is a different format, so it is unlikely that Iran will take any drastic steps in this regard.

- Does Iran regard the Zangazur corridor as a direct rival to the "North-South" project?

- The Zangazur corridor is in fact a competitor to the "North-South" project because after its opening the cargo will go not through Iran, but through Türkiye. In addition, the Zangazur corridor is shorter, and cargo from Russia will immediately reach Mediterranean ports through it. From a logistical point of view, the Zangazur corridor has advantages. To a certain extent, this is competition, but the two routes can complement each other: one can be more oriented to the West, the other to the East. In this context, their competition is not so obvious, and they can get along together. It all depends on how and what to use them for. Of course, Iran would like to control all these routes. For it, the creation of such routes, especially along its own borders, is like a red rag.