Time for full control of Lachin road inexorably approaching? Foreign experts' opinions on Caliber.Az

On December 30, the Russian Foreign Ministry published spokeswoman Maria Zakharova's comment on the situation on the Lachin road.

"We express concern over the lack of progress in restoring the full functioning of the Lachin corridor for the movement of citizens, vehicles, and freight in both directions in accordance with the Statement of the leaders of Russia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia of November 9, 2020. The Russian side, in particular the leadership of the Russian peacekeeping contingent (RPC), continues to take consistent steps to resolve this situation.

We regard any public outbursts and provocations against our peacekeepers as unacceptable and deliberate actions that cause tangible damage to the Armenian-Azerbaijani normalization process.

We call on Baku and Yerevan to comply strictly with all the provisions of the Statement of the leaders of Russia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia of November 9, 2020. We note that the Lachin corridor should only be used for the purposes outlined in this document. We expect that the sides will come to agreements on the issue of the development of ore deposits in the region," the statement said.

It is remarkable that the Russian side for the first time virtually mentioned that the Lachin road must be used "only for the purposes outlined in this document". Previously, for two years the Armenian military had been passing by the Russian peacekeepers in both directions, arms were being transported from Armenia to Azerbaijan, and there was nothing, the Russian Foreign Ministry was silent.

It is no less remarkable that the current statement does not criticise the actions of the Azerbaijani side. Maybe it will not be long before there is a full-fledged Azerbaijani border and customs checkpoint, and the Armenians of Karabakh and Armenia will have to accept the fact that this is, after all, Azerbaijani territory and that it has the right to know what goes in and out of its land, after all?

Renowned foreign analysts shared their views on the unfolding situation with Caliber.Az.

Vadim Dubnov (Prague), a Russian expert on the European post-Soviet states and journalist for Radio Liberty/Ekho Kavkaza, believes that some kind of compromise is being sought between the Russian side and the Azerbaijani side. The peacekeepers in this case perform a certain representative function of some kind of active negotiating objects, but the question is what is the formula for this compromise?

"I think it is somewhat broader than just the Lachin corridor. I think that the sides have to discuss some kind of format regarding Karabakh within Azerbaijan. And I think all the sides are already in agreement that Karabakh will be inside Azerbaijan. The question is what this format will be. And in that sense, Moscow has to look for some kind of compromise between its position and the Yerevan position (where Yerevan may insist on something in general), and its position and the Baku one - taking into consideration what Moscow may agree on.

And in this sense, it is obvious that the issue of the direct demands of the eco-activists - development of the deposits and monitoring - will gradually shift. It was clear that sooner or later the collective position of Moscow and Yerevan will move towards a compromise and Azerbaijan will push its position through.

I do not think there will be a checkpoint in the Lachin corridor any time soon. I think it will simply be Baku's wish to be much stricter in terms of inspection by Russia. And I still believe that Moscow will hold on to the monopoly of its control on the Lachin road for quite a long time. And for that, it can concede something, and Baku understands it very well. But this is only the beginning of the conversation. I think that all this is only the beginning of the long discussions and negotiations about the format I mentioned above," Dubnov believes.

Pavlo Lakiychuk, a military expert at the Strategy XXI Centre (Ukraine), believes that after the breakdown of the meeting between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Brussels, Baku decided not to allow the peace process to stall in the conflict settlement - it is not satisfied with such status quo.

"Azerbaijan acts on the basis of the five basic principles of the draft peace treaty. Yerevan, on the other hand, is more focused on Moscow and its 'road map'. Moscow is a divide-and-conquer mediator. A lot has happened this year alone, the situation has radically changed. The Russian-Ukrainian war has played no small role here. Russia no longer has the power to dictate its terms in the Caucasus. And Baku, as it seems, confronted the "peacekeeper" with the fact. I am sure that sooner or later there will be a full-fledged border and customs control on the Azerbaijani border. A weakening Moscow will be forced to accept it. Otherwise, the Azerbaijanis may choose another mediator in the negotiations. In any case, after the Armenian-Azerbaijani meeting in Brussels was disrupted, Philip Reeker, a senior adviser to the US Secretary of State for Caucasus talks, said, 'The US at the highest level, through Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, is involved and facilitating direct Armenian-Azerbaijani talks. We are committed to ensuring a peaceful future in the South Caucasus region,'" Lakiychuk concluded.

What matters is not so much the "softening" of the Kremlin's position on Azerbaijan, but the absence of criticism and condemnation of the conflict over the Lachin road by the West, says Alexander Rahr, professor at the WeltTrends Institute for International Policy (Potsdam, Germany).

"The Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict has developed into a more global stage of confrontation, where the West, Russia, and Türkiye will compete for geopolitical supremacy in the Eurasian space. Thus, the regional conflict in the Caucasus is becoming, like the war in Ukraine, part of the 'Great Game' of the great powers.

It is logical that Russia cannot and does not want to confront Baku in this situation. On the other hand, Russia cannot give up Yerevan without losing face and serious consequences for the existence of the CSTO," German expert notes.

Kazakhstani political analyst Kazbek Beisebayev says that in his view, there are several reasons for the Russian Foreign Ministry's change of tone.

"Firstly, Russia, which is almost entirely engaged in the war in Ukraine and all its ensuing consequences, does not care about Karabakh's problems now. Even the Russian Foreign Ministry's statement suggests that Moscow is saying that we did what we could, but now it's up to you to decide.

Secondly, despite Russia's key role in the history of Armenia and the Armenian people, the attitude towards Russia in Armenia today is not entirely unequivocal. A recent poll showed that the majority of Armenian citizens consider France to be the friendliest country, followed by Russia.

Furthermore, Baku and Moscow know how to find a common language and come to an agreement, which is not the case with Yerevan.

All these circumstances combined have begun to reflect the current realities in Karabakh," Beisebayev said.