"Trump will not forgive Armenians for their support of Kamala Harris" Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

Armenian strongholds in the U.S. have found themselves in serious crisis under Trump. One of the most prominent pro-Armenian lobbyists, the vehement Azerbaijanophobe former senator Menendez, has been sentenced to 11 years in prison on charges of bribery and corruption. Now, another entity that actively nurtures and finances Armenian interests is undergoing a purge – the USAID agency. 

One of USAID's most memorable initiatives in 2024 was the decision to more than double the financial aid to Armenia – from $120 million to $250 million. Now, Yerevan will not receive it at all. It is no coincidence that many countries openly label USAID as a "spy" organization, as it has destabilized the governments of countries whose policies did not align with Washington's interests in some way.

So, what are we witnessing now: a targeted strike by Trump on the Armenian lobby, pro-Armenian mechanisms in the U.S., or is it rather an attempt by the new president's team to optimize the legacy of Biden-era initiatives, which were based on financing ineffective political management that does not align with U.S. interests? With this question, a correspondent from Caliber.Az reached out to foreign political scientists.

According to Israeli political scientist, international expert, and Rabbi Mikhail Finkel, Trump and Musk are pragmatists, and the recent speech by the U.S. president was focused on total economic savings.

"As Trump stated in his speech, the U.S. plans to save one trillion dollars from the U.S. budget in 2025 by cutting spending on nonsense, funding obscure organizations, and false, illusory goals. He also noted that the U.S. will no longer fund conflicts, revolutions, or anything that does not contribute to America's well-being. What we are witnessing now is a targeted reduction in budgets for the causes that Biden generously funded. Let me provide some examples. America has stopped funding all countries and providing aid, except for two. These are Israel, which is essentially America's satellite and is tied to it like Siamese twins, and Egypt. Why Egypt? Because it is the largest country in the Middle East, and if financial aid is cut off, power may once again fall into the hands of Islamic fundamentalists. Trump also halted aid to Ukraine and closed the offices of all Palestinian organizations in the U.S. this week, halting financial aid to the Palestinian Authority," emphasized the political analyst.

According to him, the same is happening with the support that Democrats traditionally provided to Armenian goals and interests.

"This is coming to an end because the current administration does not see any rationale in it. For Republicans, and particularly for Trump, political and economic pragmatism are very important.

Moreover, if we weigh the interests of the U.S. in interacting with Azerbaijan against those of the U.S. in interacting with Armenia, it is clear that Azerbaijan will outweigh them. It is a promising, powerful, rapidly developing country rich in energy resources, with enormous intellectual potential. Meanwhile, Armenia today, unfortunately, is a dying country. Armenians are fleeing their country, seeing neither an economic nor a political future for themselves there. What is the benefit for the U.S. in funding such a country? None. Additionally, we see that the Armenian side is not yet ready for a full-fledged peace agreement. The issue of the transport corridor to Nakhchivan through Armenia's territory is still unresolved.

It is also important to mention that Trump holds a personal grudge against the Armenian lobby because it is closely aligned with the Democratic Party, and Democratic administrations in the U.S. have practically all recognized the ‘Armenian Genocide’ and supported Armenia. They are personal enemies of Trump because they supported Kamala Harris's candidacy in the elections, and Trump does not forgive such slights. Similarly, Armenians and pro-Palestinian activists supported Kamala, hoping the Democrats would give them everything. Therefore, Trump cut off funding to all of them and will punish them severely. He doesn't forgive such things," emphasized Finkel.

Meanwhile, according to Farhad Kasenov, the head of the A+Analytics research centre and a Kazakh political scientist, the Armenian lobby in the U.S. certainly made a serious tactical mistake. By putting all their eggs in one basket and placing an unequivocal bet on the Democrats' victory, they are now paying the price for it.

"We do not see a realistic assessment of the events taking place in the region from the Armenian lobby, nor an expression of a rational position. Azerbaijan defended its sovereignty and returned to the borders recognized by the UN. Now, Baku is actively developing its economic, social, and political components, while Armenia is still under the influence of the Armenian diaspora and its radical sentiments. And this is, of course, an extremely unhealthy situation.

I believe that when the administration of President Donald Trump froze the operations of the USAID agency, conducting a thorough review of its social investments worldwide, they likely did not calculate this move as a direct strike against the Armenian lobby. The essence of today's measures is primarily to assess how effectively USAID is spending taxpayer money, conduct an audit of its activities, and determine how beneficial such activities may be for the U.S. in the future. However, one way or another, the fate of the programs initiated by the agency to support Armenia and its interests is now in serious question. The Armenian lobby will now have to wait for decisions from Washington, and how long that will take is also unclear. In this case, it is still about optimizing the Democrats' legacy. Did this affect the operations of the Armenian lobby in the U.S. and the funding of Armenia? Undoubtedly, it did," emphasized Kasenov.