"US, France using Armenia to sway South Caucasus" Russian pundit on Caliber.Az

Caliber.Az interview with Alexei Nezhivoy, head of the Laboratory of Political and Social Technologies of the Russian Federation.

-How do you evaluate Russia's policy in the South Caucasus in terms of Russian-Azerbaijani and Russian-Armenian relations?

- Last year, many statements were made at the level of venerable Russian politicians that Moscow will never turn its face towards the West and will keep its course towards the countries of the global south and south-east, i.e. towards Türkiye, Azerbaijan and Iran. And indeed, we see Russia turning towards Eurasianism.

As for Armenia, as I have said many times, its only goal is to sell itself to the West as expensive as possible. However, since there are more than enough problems on the Western flank, especially in the economic sphere, Armenia's attempts to get closer to the West are unlikely to bring it the desired results.

- Last year, no agreement was reached on a peace treatment between Baku and Yerevan. What are the forecasts in this regard this year?

-This issue should be considered in the context of Western policy. Given that the West needs only war, the possibility of concluding a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the foreseeable future is unlikely. Most likely, the US and France will use Armenia as a tool to sway the situation in the South Caucasus, which will cast doubt on the possibility of signing a peace treaty between Baku and Yerevan.

- Is there a possibility of Armenia's withdrawal from the CSTO in the foreseeable future?

-Yes, of course, such a probability is quite high.

- And how will Russia act to keep it in the orbit of its influence?

- Currently, I do not see any mechanisms for keeping Armenia in the orbit of Russia's interests. On the other hand, in principle, Armenia does not represent a great strategic value for Russia. Therefore, most likely, the choice will be up to the Armenian elite and the leadership of this country: to stay with Russia or to move to the West.

- Will Moscow push for the opening of the Zangazur corridor this year?

-I think Russia will be involved in this issue as it is clearly interested in seeing it resolved peacefully.

- Do you assume new clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan against the backdrop of activation of revanchist forces in Yerevan?

-It will depend to a small extent on the West's ability to support Armenian revanchism inside Armenia. Will it care about Armenia? Assuming that the West does try to support Armenia against the backdrop of the conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East, the probability that Armenia will follow the Ukrainian scenario is high.

- You mean if France still manages to squeeze into the South Caucasus through Armenia?

- In my opinion, after the expulsion from Africa, Macron's France is already associated with a political corpse. Nevertheless, it is possible that the US and France will try to enter the region through Armenia. But given that the Ukrainian conflict has exhausted the US in terms of military supplies, I think the West has largely exhausted its resources and has actually run out of steam.