Westward tilt: Armenia risks losing sovereignty Expert opinion on Caliber.Az

Caliber.Az presents a blitz interview with the Russian political scientist and publicist, Pavel Danilin, Director General of the Centre for Political Analysis and Social Research.

- How do you assess the potential of the current protests in Armenia? Can they lead to a change of power in the country?

- The probability of a change of power in Armenia against the background of the current protests is quite low. Pro-European Armenians, who strongly believe in Europe and see Nikol Pashinyan as a guide of their interests, have too much potential. Therefore, most likely, the Armenian prime minister will manage to retain power despite the unstable internal political situation in the country.

- The Armenian leadership claims that it is ready to sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan by the end of this year. To what extent is this possible?

- This is a difficult question. The fact is that signing a peace treaty would be explosive for Armenia itself and could further intensify protests in the country. But these protests will not be fatal, because the Armenians, as they call it, want to close this issue "amicably".

- Does Armenia have any chance of joining the European Union?

- Armenia has no chance of becoming a member of the EU, just like Ukraine. If they suddenly enter it, the EU will no longer exist.

- What are the consequences for Armenia of a final turn towards the West?

- As I have said many times, Armenia risks losing its sovereignty in this case.

- Will Iran's policy towards the South Caucasus countries, Türkiye and Russia change after the election of the new president?

- I do not think that Tehran's policy towards regional states may change with the arrival of the new president. It is more likely that Tehran will retain its previous foreign policy orientations in the South Caucasus.