Will the Chinese peace plan bring the Ukraine war to a close? Peace talks under nuclear missiles

On February 23, the UN General Assembly will hold a vote on a resolution regarding the Ukrainian peace formula made by president Volodymyr Zelensky. During the session, China's top envoy to the UN, Zhang Jun, confirmed that Beijing had prepared its own version of the peace plan to be unveiled in the coming few days. The Chinese peace project was first revealed by Wan Yi, a top Chinese state official and former foreign minister, during his recent Munich Security Conference speech.

Wan Yi described the Russian invasion of Ukraine as a "big problem" and expressed Beijing's willingness to "bring it to a close." Despite Yi's statements, China has provided financial and military support to Russia since the start of the invasion campaign against Ukraine.

Instead, Wan Yi ventured a nebulous peace plan that China would broker between the warring parties while aiming a gossamer-veiled rebuke at the US Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has said that the top Chinese diplomat shared with him "the key points of the peace plan that will be studied in detail by the Ukrainian side as soon as it receives the full text of the document."

The possible mediation of the Ukraine conflict would enable China to alleviate its official image and decrease tensions with its Western partners, which have skyrocketed recently. Chinese analysts said Beijing would try its best to mediate, but whether a peace plan will be effective depends on both sides of the warring parties.

Although China abstained from vocal alignment with Russia in its invasion campaign, as in the case of Iran, Beijing also criticized anti-Russian sanctions imposed by the Western coalition. As such, Moscow boosted its ties with China as its only powerful ally capable of supporting it financially and technically.

The proposed peace plan also was on the top agenda during Wan Yi's visit to Moscow, where he emphasized that “China appreciates Russia's reaffirmation of willingness to resolve the issue through dialogue and negotiation.” Seemingly, Beijing is optimistic that all parties will overcome difficulties, continue to create conditions for dialogue and negotiation, and find effective ways of political settlement.

According to various reports, the Chinese peace plan mainly envisages the secession of arms supply to Ukraine and the relaunch of peace negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow, though Beijing will not demand Russia to withdraw its troops. Hence, given the last point of the peace, it is unlikely Kyiv and its Western partners would accept the Chinese peace planners.

Moreover, Vladimir Putin's most recent speech at the Federal Council also suggested that Russia is not ready to retreat from its position and seek compromise with Ukraine. Also, the fact that during the speech, Putin announced the suspension of Moscow’s participation in the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty between Russia and the United States.

As a result, the US raised concerns that Russia is not complying with the nuclear treaty's provisions, designed to limit strategic offensive arms. As for the Western coalition, the New START Treaty contributes to international stability by constraining Russian and US strategic nuclear forces.

In fact, Vladimir Putin's speech contained no big revelations except the suspension of the START treaty. In light of rising risks of global security threats, China is keen to prompt economically and politically isolated Russia as a part of its standoff with the West. Therefore, the proposed peace plan frames more Chinese and Russian interests as a counterfactor to the West and is unlikely to be accepted as a comprehensive peace plan.

In this vein, president Zelensky underlined that Ukraine has its own peace formula that includes the immediate withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory, the establishment of a Russian war crimes tribunal, the release of all prisoners and forcibly relocated people, and all Western partners support the prevention of ecocide and.

Unlike Kyiv, Moscow would be satisfied with the Chinese peace plan, as it highlights the Kremlin’s “concerns.” Nevertheless, the prospects of Beijing's peace plan for a long-term and sustainable peace in Ukraine amid Russia's suspension of the New START Treaty do not bring much optimism.