Belgrade vs. Pristina Is war coming back to the Balkans?

Judging by the unfolding events, the threat of a conflict between Serbia and unrecognized Kosovo looms over the Balkans again, and it is not the first escalation of tensions this year. A large-scale rally was held on December 12 evening in downtown Belgrade. Protesters came out in defence of the Serbian population, who are being harassed in unrecognized Kosovo. Several hundred people took to the streets, the main slogan of which was "Kosovo is Serbia".

Brief information: The autonomous region of Kosovo and Metohija is part of the state of Serbia. The capital of Kosovo is the city of Pristina. The de facto authorities of Kosovo insist on independence from Serbia, and this position is shared by some countries of the world. The majority of the population of the province are Albanians, and there are also about 100,000 Serbs.

Since August 1, 2022, regional authorities have tried to ban personal documents issued by Belgrade for Serbs living in Kosovo, and transfer all personal vehicles to Kosovo license plates. This provoked the resentment of the Serbian authorities and the indignation of the Serbian population. It came to the point that Kosovo troops were pulled to the border with Serbia, but after consultations with US representatives, Pristina postponed the restrictions for a month. The situation was frozen, but, as it turned out, not for long.

Just last week, at a press conference in Belgrade, Serbian Prime Minister Ana Brnabic accused Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti and the inactive European Union of driving Serbs and Albanians to the verge of near war.

"Albin Kurti brought all of us, Serbs and Albanians, to the very brink of war, but he did not do it alone. We note the completely ignorant behavior of the European Union partners, who do not react or react when it is already 'on fire'," Brnabic said, according to Blic.

Also, Brnabic reproached EU Special EU Mission in Kosovo EULEX, as well as NATO international forces KFOR, which are responsible for stability in Kosovo, for inactivity, by claiming that they do not protect Serbs in Kosovo and Metohija.

A strong reason for Brnabic's outcry was the arrival of 200 to 300 Kosovo Special Forces in the Serb-populated town of Kosovska Mitrovica, from where they headed further north, to the Bošnjačka Mahala area.

According to Kommersant, the Kosovo police confirmed their decision to increase the number of officers in the northern part of the republic in order to "ensure the safety of all citizens". Meanwhile, as part of the Brussels agreement between the Serbian and Kosovo authorities, the Kosovo police have no right to enter the Serb-populated areas without the permission of the heads of the four Serbian municipalities. However, on December 13, the Serbian newspaper Vecernje Novosti reported that special police units of the self-proclaimed Kosovo Police have occupied the facility at the most important dam Gazivode, located on the border with Serbia, in the municipality of Zubin Potok, inhabited mostly by Serbs. According to the newspaper, members of the Kosovo Special Unit stormed the site, tearing up the Serbian flag. They even fired gunshots on the night of December 11. The incident was seen by Serbian authorities as non-compliance by Washington and Pristina with the agreements on Kosovo.

According to TASS, this was the statement made by Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic on national television after an emergency meeting of the National Security Council. "I have a question for our American partners. Tell us, which agreement is Pristina observing? What agreement are you observing? The UN Charter, resolution 1244, the Brussels agreement, or the Washington agreement? Tell us about one of these acts that Pristina respects. Tell us which one you Americans are observing," the Serbian leader asked, virtually challenging current US diplomacy.

In response, the US limited its appeals to the Serbian authorities and unrecognized Kosovo to show maximum restraint and take immediate measures to de-escalate the situation in the north of the province.

Meanwhile, while Serbia is criticizing Washington, Kosovo is still counting on Washington's support. The meeting between Vjosa Osmani, the "president" of Kosovo, and US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken in Washington in June was an obvious illustration of this.

"Relations with the United States have always been not just necessary, but vital to achieving Kosovo's freedom," Osmani stressed.

It is known that the US supports the position of Kosovo in this conflict and does not seem to intend to revise it, because it is dissatisfied with the position of Serbia on many issues. Firstly, this is the desire of the republic to adhere to an independent state line, to maintain military neutrality, and unwillingness to join NATO or any other military blocs. Secondly, the fact that the country expects to enter the European Union, but at the same time, it does not refuse to cooperate with China and Russia. In other words, the priorities of Serbian foreign policy largely diverge from the principled points of view of the White House.

But there is one more noteworthy nuance. Despite the fact that in 2008 the United States recognized Kosovo's statehood, just a year later in February 2009, Vice-President Joe Biden who was visiting Belgrade, suddenly said that the United States did not insist on Serbia's recognition of Kosovo's independence and did not think it was a necessary condition for EU membership. This was voiced amid tensions between Belgrade and Washington over Washington's recognition of Kosovo's independence. Contrary to the American initiative, then Serbian President Boris Tadic clearly stated that the position of the country's leadership on Kosovo would remain unchanged, arguing that Serbia had every right to defend its territorial integrity by any peaceful, diplomatic, and legal means. And indeed, the position of the Serbian government has remained unchanged on all these fronts to date, as evidenced by the country's recent rejection of French and German offers to recognize Kosovo's independence.

As current events have shown, the talks between Belgrade and Pristina that were held in Brussels on November 21 did not yield any results, and a rather explosive situation has emerged in the region today. EU chief diplomat Josep Borrell has also warned that Serbia and Kosovo are now on the brink of the most dangerous crisis in a decade. According to Euractiv, he urged both sides to fulfill their obligations in the framework of the EU-facilitated dialogue.

Europe limited itself to declarative statements, while Serbia openly accuses the West of double standards, citing the Ukrainian crisis as an example. According to TASS, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic condemned the Western countries on the air of the Prva TV channel for participating in the reshaping of Serbia's map, while not agreeing with the change of Ukraine's borders.

It follows from the Serbian leader's statements that Serbia, contrary to the position of the US and several European countries calling on Belgrade to reconsider the Kosovo problem, will continue to adhere to its principled position. But it is also obvious that Serbia will not give up the idea of joining the EU, as well as cooperation with China, Middle East countries, Türkiye and Azerbaijan.

It should be noted that Azerbaijan, like Türkiye, from the first days of the conflict in Kosovo, does not recognize the independence of the province, based on the laws of international law and at the same time, based on its national interests. Currently, Azerbaijan and Serbia have a strategic partnership. A declaration on friendship and a strategic partnership was signed at the level of heads of state of the two countries in 2013, and a plan of joint actions on strategic partnership was signed in 2018. All these documents confirm Serbia's commitment to resolving the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict in accordance with the norms and principles of international law. Serbia has not forgotten that Azerbaijan was the first country to come to the aid after the 2014 floods - the very next day after the disaster, the first plane arrived in Serbia with a cargo of aid from Baku. Undoubtedly, the official visit of the President of Azerbaijan to Belgrade in November of this year made a significant contribution to the bilateral cooperation between Azerbaijan and Serbia,

As for the current tense situation, Oleg Bondarenko, director of the Russian Progressive Policy Foundation, and an expert on the Balkan countries, told Caliber.Az that the incident between Serbia and Kosovo has long turned into an armed conflict, and today it is obvious that the West is testing President Vucic for his strength, using Kosovo as a tool to pressure Belgrade to join the EU anti-Russian sanctions and recognize the self-proclaimed state.

"Although, as we know, not all EU members recognize Kosovo's independence. Of course, it is very important to prevent bloody developments, but if the Kosovo police start using force against Kosovo Serbs, I think Belgrade will use its opportunity to introduce 1,000 troops into northern Kosovo, citing UN Security Council resolutions," Bondarenko said, noting that Russia will support Serbia's position in this conflict as much as possible.