Breakthrough in Sharm el-Sheikh? Israel and Hamas follow Trump’s plan

On October 8, 2025, Israel and the Palestinian movement Hamas reached an agreement on the first stage of a peace plan proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump. The negotiations took place in the Egyptian city of Sharm el-Sheikh, with Qatar, Egypt, and Türkiye acting as mediators.

Key provisions of the agreement:

1. Both sides agree to cease hostilities;

2. Israel commits to withdrawing its forces to the line defined in Trump’s plan, while maintaining control over 53% of the Gaza Strip—an arrangement that will not significantly affect the Israeli military’s gains;

3. Hamas pledges to release all 20 surviving Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. According to recent reports, the hostages will be freed in a single phase between Saturday and Monday, while Israel will release 250 Palestinians serving life sentences and an additional 1,700 prisoners from Gaza;

4. Broad humanitarian access to Gaza will be restored, at volumes comparable to those agreed under the January deal.

Donald Trump has already hailed the agreement as a “historic step” and expressed deep gratitude to the mediators. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the day of the signing “a great day for Israel” and thanked Trump for his efforts. The agreement will be submitted for approval by the Israeli government.

Hamas, for its part, confirmed the deal, emphasising that it includes a ceasefire, the withdrawal of Israeli forces, the delivery of humanitarian aid, and the exchange of hostages.

In addition, President Trump is expected to visit Israel this Sunday.

Naturally, the news of the long-awaited agreement has brought joy and hope both in Israel—where citizens will finally return home after two years in captivity—and in Gaza, where at least temporarily, the bloodshed will cease. However, several issues remain unresolved, including the future of Hamas, its disarmament, and the governance of Gaza. Any outcome in which Hamas retains its weapons and remains the dominant force in the Strip would be unacceptable to Israel. This raises a significant risk of renewed fighting in Gaza after the hostages are released, as Israel clearly has no intention of retreating and aims to completely dismantle Hamas’s authority in the territory. This could happen either peacefully or militarily, depending on the decisions of the Hamas leadership.

Still, there remains a small but real possibility that hostilities will not resume after the first stage of the deal. This could result from increased international—or, more importantly, American—pressure on Israel not to resume fighting if obstacles arise during negotiations toward the second stage. Only time will tell how the war in Gaza will ultimately conclude.

By Riad Hamidov