Experts say Belarus' new military doctrine will not help Armenia Tikhansky and Petrovsky talk to Caliber.Az

Belarus is preparing to adopt a new military doctrine, according to which it will consider an attack on its allies as an attack on its territory, the head of the Information and Analysis Department of the General Staff of the Belarusian Armed Forces, Artem Butorin, has said, adding that the doctrine will set out the country's principles and views on how it will behave as an ally.

It is clear that Belarus is now on the flank of the standoff between the two global power centres and will have to react in its own manner, but it also raises some issues.

For example, what will Minsk's reaction be in the light of the new military doctrine if, in the event of a new war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Yerevan suddenly thinks that someone has invaded Armenian territory and calls for help from the CSTO? Caliber.Az asked Belarusian political analysts to clarify the situation.

Alexander Tikhansky, a military expert, reserve colonel and professor at the Academy of Military Sciences of the Russian Federation believes that the new military doctrine of Belarus is currently being finalised. But there is also the military doctrine of the Union States, and these must be co-ordinated.

"Yes, this new document is open for public study, but its adoption is accompanied by several closed documents in which the details of this doctrine are specified. The fact is that so far a situation has been created around Belarus that we have been forced to form a regional grouping of troops together with Russia on the western border to reduce tensions. But despite this, the number of Polish units near our border is increasing. There are about 10,000 American troops in Poland, and the situation is roughly the same on the borders of the Union state - I mean the Kaliningrad region. So the threats exist and Belarus must respond, including by changing its military doctrine. Taking into account the fact that tactical nuclear weapons are now deployed on Belarusian territory. And the bilateral documents on military cooperation with Russia also take into account all these factors of threats near the border," the expert says.

He believes that some tend to link the revision of military doctrine with the CSTO factor.

"But the CSTO is a completely different structure. It has a long decision-making process, and if Kazakhstan had not appealed to the CSTO, such incidents would have remained theoretical. Therefore, I would characterise the adoption of the new doctrine as a revision of actions exclusively in the context of military cooperation with Russia given the current tense situation on the western borders of the Union state.

According to Petr Petrovsky, a researcher at the Institute of Philosophy of the National Academy of Sciences and an expert at the Centre for Integration Studies "North Eurasia", if Armenia suddenly decides to seek help from its partners and allies in the CSTO, it will not be able to appeal directly to Minsk; according to the statute, it will have to send its appeal to the organisation's leadership, where decisions will be made based on an analysis of the situation.

"Besides, judging by Pashinyan's rhetoric, all of Yerevan's statements about threats to Armenia's territorial integrity are for internal discourse, for the part of the nationalist electorate that exists in the country. Moreover, the president of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, has himself been quite clear that Baku has no plans for an invasion of Armenia. So Armenians can sleep peacefully. I think we should trust such statements from Baku," the political analyst said.

As for the new military doctrine, according to Petrovsky, it only "clarifies some norms that existed in international treaties". And this means that Belarus is obliged to honour its commitments to its allies.

"But as far as Armenia is concerned, we have no bilateral treaties, only cooperation within the framework of the CSTO treaty. But the CSTO considers each case specifically and closely, and we remember very well how Minsk reacted to Armenia's appeal when it tried to use the CSTO there.

I would like to note that relations between Azerbaijan and Belarus have the character of a strategic partnership and the trade turnover between our countries is about ten times higher than the trade turnover between Minsk and Yerevan. Besides, the CSTO also judges Armenia based on its behaviour and actions. Let's remember that Putin directly addressed Yerevan with a proposal to create a commission within the CSTO that would help to demarcate and delimit the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, just to avoid ambiguous situations and speculations, but Yerevan ignored this proposal. So the CSTO has done all it can to respond to Armenia's proposals and is unlikely to do more," Petrovsky concluded.