Germany: Conservatism, crisis, and shadow of far right Friedrich Merz faces coalition dilemma

Despite securing victory in the snap parliamentary elections, Germany’s future chancellor from the right-conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Friedrich Merz, still faces many sleepless nights ahead, liberal media outlets sarcastically note. The elections saw a record 84% voter turnout—the highest since Germany’s reunification in 1990.

The Christian Democrats garnered 29% of the vote, a 5% increase compared to the previous election. However, the second-strongest party was Alternative for Germany (AfD), which had long teetered on the brink of being banned. The party secured over 20% of the vote—doubling its result from the 2021 election, where it had received just 10% and placed fifth. Economic crises and ongoing wars have contributed to the rise of the far right, who present themselves as "fighters against the system."

The election turned into a complete disaster for the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), a party that for decades had been one of the country's two dominant political forces. It secured only 16% of the vote—the worst result for the Social Democrats since the late 19th century.

Speaking at the SPD headquarters in Berlin after the preliminary results were announced, former Chancellor Olaf Scholz admitted: "This is a bitter result for the party; it is an electoral defeat." In reality, this signifies that, as in other European countries, left-wing politics is fading into the past.

In addition to the Social Democrats, two other small left-wing parties made it into the Bundestag: the Greens (11.6%) and Die Linke (8.8%). The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, which many had seen as a potential rising force, failed to clear the electoral threshold, securing only 4.9% of the vote.

Based on the results, the Christian Democrats secured 208 seats in the Bundestag, AfD got 152, the SPD won 120, the Greens earned 85, and Die Linke obtained 64. The number of seats won will not be enough for the conservatives to elect a new chancellor on their own, so they will be forced to enter into coalition talks.

Ahead of the elections, the leader of the Christian Democrats promised to continue the policy of boycotting the Alternative for Germany (AfD). On the ARD television channel, he stated: "With [AfD leader Alice] Weidel, we have fundamental disagreements, particularly in foreign policy and security policy, and in many other areas concerning the EU, the euro, and NATO. They can extend their hand as much as they want, but we are not going to engage in policies that are wrong for this country. I am not willing to question the legacy of the union over the 75 years of the Federal Republic of Germany just because the so-called Alternative for Germany has suddenly appeared. Their goals are opposite to ours, so there will be no cooperation."

Merz may attempt to form a coalition with the Social Democrats. However, on the other hand, it will be difficult for the new chancellor to ignore a political force that is supported by one-fifth of Germans. Moreover, AfD leader Alice Weidel has expressed a desire to unite with the centre-right. As is well known, politics allows for a certain degree of flexibility, and it is quite possible that Friedrich Merz will soon forget his promises to boycott the far-right. Especially considering that his party members are already aligned with AfD on certain issues, such as tightening migration laws.

A bloc between the Christian Democrats and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) could also receive support from the new U.S. administration. A close ally of current U.S. President Donald Trump, Elon Musk, openly expressed his support for AfD and announced he would provide the party with financial assistance. U.S. Vice President JD Vance also spoke in favour of free speech and indirectly addressed the policy of boycotting Germany's far-right.

Another consequence of the new American policy will be an increase in Germany's defence spending. On one hand, this is related to the planned reduction of aid from across the Atlantic, and on the other, it is tied to Germany's programs supporting Ukraine. However, there is complete consensus among German politicians on the issue of boosting military allocations. The Teutonic sword is once again being drawn from its scabbard, and "poor Michel" will soon be replaced by "fierce Hans." As analyst Alexander Rahr noted: "Merz wants to unite a weakening Europe around Germany, separate from Trump, and create a self-sufficient Europe in military terms for a potential war with Russia."

As for domestic policy, the new government is faced with a whole bouquet of bad news. Germany is confronting the most serious economic crisis in its post-war history. This is a result of high energy prices due to the cessation of cheap Russian gas supplies, a downturn in the automotive market, the inability to implement innovations, and years of refusal to invest in infrastructure. While Friedrich Merz promises to address these issues by raising the retirement age and cutting taxes for large corporations, there is also hope that an increase in military spending will contribute to economic recovery.

The social situation in the Federal Republic of Germany is teetering on the brink of explosion. A large segment of the bourgeoisie is dissatisfied with the "open-door" migration policy, and it seems that the new cabinet, even without the involvement of the Alternative for Germany, will tighten migration laws.

Journalists noted that the election results revealed that the divide between East and West Germany has not yet been overcome. The media published a voting map that clearly showed how people in different regions voted. According to this data, the eastern part of the country supported the Alternative for Germany (AfD) more than the western regions. The map of regions where the far-right gained a majority almost exactly coincides with the map of the former GDR. The conservatives were supported by the states that were previously part of the FRG.

The results of the German election did not go unnoticed around the world. U.S. President Donald Trump posted on social media: "Much like the USA, the people of Germany got tired of the no common sense agenda, especially on energy and immigration, that has prevailed for so many years. This is a great day for Germany, and the United States of America under the leadership of a gentleman named Donald J. Trump. Congratulations to all — many more victories to follow!!!"

A similar position was expressed by Trump's ally in the conservative camp, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán: "The people of Germany voted for change in immense numbers. I want to congratulate Alice Weidel on doubling AfD ’s share of the votes. Good luck and God bless Germany!"

The reaction in Russia was much more restrained, given that the current German chancellor takes a hard anti-Russian stance. According to Russian Senator Alexei Pushkov, "Considering Merz's aggressiveness towards Russia, more dramatic scenarios are possible, such as even greater involvement of Germany in the war against Russia."

Thus, the new right-conservative Germany will have to tackle several challenging tasks. It must emerge from the economic crisis, possibly not without employing elements of "shock therapy," similar to what is being implemented by Argentine President Milei. On the other hand, Berlin plans to become the military-political hegemon of Europe, replacing the U.S., and challenge Russia. Naturally, the success of the military-political program will depend on the success of economic reforms, and we will soon see if the right-wing can make not only America great again but also Germany.