Implications of Samarkand summit for Caucasus, Central Asia Unifying Turkic World

On November 11, the major gathering of leaders of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) kicked off in Samarkand. While the event was the foremost gathering of Turkic states' leaders in the last two years, it occurred in the wake of Russia's waning influence in Central Asia and Caucasus regions.

The reincarnation process of the OTS, which started in 2020 amid geopolitical shifts in the post-Soviet region, significantly proceeded in light of Russia's military intervention in Ukraine and the West's efforts to limit Moscow's influence in its immediate neighborhood. The Organization of Turkic States, formerly known as the Cooperation Council of Turkic Speaking States (Turkic Council), was established on October 3, 2009. The members of the Organization of Turkic States are Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey, and Uzbekistan. Hungary and Turkmenistan have observer status.

Hence, with Russia being stuck in Ukraine, regional states in Central Asia and the Caucasus attempt to establish a unique cooperation platform encompassing crucial fields like energy, trade, and defense cooperation. Leaders of Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Hungary attended the summit dubbed "New Era for Turkic Civilization: Towards Common Development and Prosperity." As a result of the summit, a "Strategic Document," which includes the organization's actions for the next five years and is aimed at implementing the roadmap of the OTS for the next 20 years, was approved.

The main topic of discussion at the leaders' summit was the reaction to emerging regional and global threats that could potentially destabilize respective states in fragile regions. From the point of view of Azerbaijan, the Karabakh issue between Baku and Yerevan and the absence of a final peace treaty is one of the major sources of threats to the stability of the South Caucasus region. Recently, the Azerbaijani government took a critical stance toward Russia and the West for their unwillingness to exert more pressure on Armenia for the final peace agreement to end hostilities in Karabakh. However, unlike the West and Russia, Azerbaijan sees the OTS platform as a counter-balance to other formats influenced mainly by the Kremlin or the Western circles.

As the Samarkand leaders’ summit was dedicated to the existing common problems of Turkic nations across the globe, it was for the first time that President Ilham Aliyev raised his concerns that around 40 million ethnic Turks are deprived of studying in their native language, referring mainly to sizeable ethnic Azerbaijanis living in Iran. This statement should not come as a surprise as the diplomatic tensions between Baku and Tehran are mounting, and both states are keen to demonstrate their dissatisfaction.

As for the landlocked Central Asian region, the OTS is a viable option to reach out to the Caspian basin and Turkey further to the European market bypassing Russia’s territory. The internationally imposed sanctions made transit operations via Russia nearly impossible, if not less attractive, for local companies. Therefore, the Middle Corridor concept re-emerged as a reliable and shortest route to Europe through the Caspian Sea and Turkey. Indeed, some of OTS’s projects regarding internal economic integration and cooperation are of great importance for the development and strengthening of trade and economic relations between Europe and Asia.

The OTS's profile gains more international image with the active participation of Hungary, eyeing an opportunity to invest in Uzbekistan's energy and agricultural fields. Hungary's involvement in the OTS projects came amid its deteriorating relations with the EU partners in the wake of the global economic recession caused by the war in Ukraine. Also, Hungary's participation in the OTS projects became possible primarily due to its deep engagement with Turkey and Azerbaijan, key regional partners.

In this regard, Ankara emerges as a new influential non-regional actor within the OTS by making inroads into the vacated region and establishing a footprint. For several years Ankara has been pushing for closer cultural, linguistic, and religious ties with several ex-Soviet countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia.

The growing ties of nearly all Turkic-speaking countries under a common house raise debates in Russia, though there is little that Moscow could do to prevent the current facilitation between former Soviet states. Hence, Russia is not the only regional state that feels threatened by the growing OTS activity, as Iran also cautiously watches the establishment of a new geopolitical axis.

Unlike previous regional events when the Russian language used to prevail, the latest Samarkand summit appears to be more significant because the Turkic language was the main working language during the event, which increased the symbolic importance of the summit. In addition, Russia was absent from the event, though the President of Uzbekistan vowed to “invite Russia as a guest for the next summit.” At this point, Central Asian states would cherry-pick from alliances offered by Moscow and Ankara, “taking what interests them and rejecting what does not interest them.”

Amid global security cataclysms and vacuum, the OTS strives to create favorable conditions for regional trade relations and investments, ensuring comprehensive and balanced economic, social and cultural development. However, the organization's new geopolitical realities and characteristics suggest that the OTS will further facilitate partnerships with members and non-member regional states to yield more political and economic benefits.