Is the US ready to cut through the Zangezur corridor? Experts weigh in on O'Brien's visit

The U.S. Assistant Secretary of State has revealed the main topic of the negotiations he will conduct in Baku. As James O'Brien stated during hearings in the House Foreign Affairs Committee, the U.S. is striving to ensure that the export of goods from Central Asia bypasses Russia and China, using alternative routes, including through Azerbaijan.

O'Brien noted that exports from Central Asian countries to world markets currently go only through China and Russia, and "for a bypass route, they need to cooperate with Azerbaijan." "One route goes through Georgia to the Black Sea, but another, potentially larger route would go through Azerbaijan, Armenia and Türkiye, and for these reasons, we need a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia," the diplomat explained.

Why has the transportation topic suddenly surfaced? Will the Zangezur corridor become the main topic of O'Brien's visit to Baku, or are there other goals and objectives of the U.S. behind these statements? With these questions, the Caliber.Az correspondent reached out to Azerbaijani and Russian political analysts.

According to Alexander Razuvaev, an expert on Eurasia, economic analyst and Russian political scientist, the United States cannot be trusted.

“They deceived the leadership of the USSR and Russia with NATO expansion, deceived Yanukovych – the former president of Ukraine, and also Slobodan Milosevic when they concluded an agreement with Yugoslavia in 1995 on all disputed issues. Additionally, the U.S. and the West as a whole openly support Armenia against Azerbaijan, while Russia and China, on the contrary, are reliable partners for Baku. I also think it should be considered that Azerbaijan is one of the leaders of the Non-Aligned Movement, and its relations with Russia and China are much more important. Again, it should not be forgotten that Azerbaijan is an important player in the Organization of Turkic States. The Americans are bound to deceive, there is no doubt about that. But Azerbaijan has its own self-sufficient position – it won the war, and accordingly, it is not entirely clear what special offer the U.S. can make to Baku. As the victor, it is Azerbaijan that dictates the terms,” the political scientist noted.

According to Razuvaev, it would certainly be good for Azerbaijan to make peace with Armenia, but even without it, as the victor, it loses little. For Russia, Azerbaijan is important as a North-South corridor.

“The Americans, in turn, are sensitive about Eurasian integration, the alliance of Turkic states, and other forms of cooperation where they cannot reach. They have one unfavourable historical characteristic: the next president does not answer for the words and agreements of his predecessor. And the current U.S. president is old and weak; the likelihood of him winning the election is minimal,” Razuvaev believes.

According to Azerbaijani MP and political scientist Rasim Musabayov, there is noticeable activity from the U.S. towards Armenia: high-ranking American officials constantly visit Yerevan, clearly aiming to elevate the relationship between the countries from strategic dialogue to the level of strategic partnership.

"It is noticeable that, in the run-up to the fall elections, where not only the president but the entire U.S. Congress is being elected, the Democrats are concerned; they want to retain at least the Senate, if not the House of Representatives, for which they need Armenian votes. Armenian organizations in the U.S. are very dissatisfied with the Biden administration because they believe the U.S. has failed to 'contain' Azerbaijan. To prevent Armenian organizations and the diaspora from turning against the Biden administration, the Democrats are trying to at least achieve the signing of a peace treaty between Baku and Yerevan, as well as the release of separatists and war criminals held in Baku, whose cases have already been sent to court. But how can they demand all this from Azerbaijan empty-handed? Therefore, it is evident that the State Department concluded that O'Brien's visit could be linked to supporting Azerbaijan's position on the Zangezur corridor and promising that it could be implemented—but on the condition of a swift peace with Armenia and the release of separatist leaders. This, in turn, could positively affect Pashinyan's rating," said Musabayov.