Moscow-London-Washington: Spy games of divided world New Cold War takes on heated edge

Spies… Agents… Intelligence operatives… These terms are all over the internet today. While they aren’t exactly new, they’ve certainly become trendy. News agencies widely reported Russia’s expulsion of six British diplomats, accusing them of espionage and "conducting intelligence and subversive activities."

London has, of course, dismissed these accusations as "completely unfounded" and "clearly absurd." However, some experts recall the UK's expulsion of a Russian military attaché in May, coupled with threats to revoke diplomatic status from several properties. At that time, the UK Home Office stated these actions were taken due to anti-Ukrainian activities by Russia, as well as harmful activities by Moscow in the UK and Europe, including cyberattacks and espionage.

There's nothing extraordinary about the situation described. The mirror-like games of intelligence agencies and foreign ministries are well-known. For example, in 2021, Russian authorities ordered BBC correspondent Sarah Rainsford to leave the country after her visa expired, which Moscow called a retaliatory measure for the UK’s refusal to issue or extend visas to Russian journalists. Some media outlets referred to this as a "symbolic deportation" and a "symmetrical response" to London's anti-Kremlin actions.

In other words, there’s nothing new in this field. The only difference now is that the current phase of "spy games" has become so frequent that news of such events no longer feels exceptional, unlike in the Soviet era. Even as recently as 8-10 years ago, such cases would have been considered sensational news.

In other words, we're now facing a level of "spy routine" that's become commonplace. This is underscored by the recent information that a US jury has found four Americans guilty of "conspiring to engage in illegal activities on behalf of Russia." The case specifies that these individuals were funded through the "Anti-Globalist Movement of Russia," a pro-Kremlin organization.

Additionally, in April, 2024, two people were arrested in Germany on suspicion of preparing acts of sabotage in the country "on behalf of Russian intelligence services." Preliminary reports indicate that these individuals were monitoring US military bases and studying ways to attack routes used for transporting German military supplies to Ukraine. Meanwhile, one of the European Parliament's resolutions claimed that Moscow is "systematically" maintaining contacts with "far-right and far-left parties, and other personalities and movements to gain support from institutional actors within the union in order to legitimize its illegal and criminal actions,"

Moreover, the recent "spy" incidents in Russia and the US occurred just before the scheduled meeting in Washington between US President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. This timing has led some analysts to suggest that these high-profile disclosures, particularly those involving Moscow, might not be coincidental. The meeting is expected to address, among other topics, the use of Western weaponry by Ukraine against Russian targets deep within Russian territory.

President Putin has equated the use of Western long-range precision weapons against Russia with direct involvement of NATO countries in the conflict. According to Putin, this "significantly changes the nature of the conflict," implying that NATO countries are effectively "at war with Russia," and that Moscow will make "appropriate decisions" in response.

It is quite telling that Starmer responded somewhat cautiously to Putin's statements, emphasizing Western support for Ukraine's "right to self-defence." He notably added that London doesn’t "seek any conflict with Russia. That’s not our intention in the slightest." However, British newspaper The Guardian, in the context of recent visits by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy to Kyiv, reported that London may allow Ukraine to use the Storm Shadow cruise missiles supplied by the UK for strikes on Russian territory.

The same source, while maintaining a cautiously nuanced tone, mentioned that there might be limitations on the use of these missiles to prevent "reckless and unnecessary attacks."

The situation indeed sounds quite nuanced and indirect. Similarly, the outcome of the recent meeting between US and UK leaders can be interpreted in this context. As noted by serious publications, no agreements were announced regarding the use of Western precision missiles for strikes deep into Russian territory. Keir Starmer only highlighted the importance of making "a series of tactical decisions within a strategic context." Discussions on these "tactical-strategic" nuances are now seemingly deferred to the upcoming 79th session of the General Assembly at the end of September. "We will use this opportunity," Starmer vaguely summarized.

Regarding the "spy games" mentioned at the beginning of this piece, whether or not they are directly linked to the potential use of Storm Shadow missiles against Russia is less crucial. What matters is that the global situation seems to be shifting towards a gradual transition from the modern variant of the Cold War to a hotter phase. In this context, the expert community believes that the Kremlin's message has been received by both London and Washington.