Peace through accelerating the crisis Trump’s new plan for Ukraine

Last night, many global media outlets shared news that the U.S. presidential administration is secretly negotiating with Russian authorities on a new plan to end the war in Ukraine. The source of the report was the American portal Axios, which, in turn, cited U.S. and Russian officials. According to the publication, the plan consists of 28 points and is inspired by Trump’s successful efforts to resolve the Gaza conflict. The project covers four key areas: peace in Ukraine, security guarantees for Ukraine, security in Europe, and the future of Washington’s relations with Moscow and Kyiv.

The portal claims that President Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, is working on the document and has discussed it in detail with Russian presidential special representative Kirill Dmitriev. The latter visited Miami from October 24 to 26 and noted that he spent three days in negotiations with Witkoff and other members of Trump’s team.

It is worth recalling how strange Dmitriev’s visit seemed at the time, when relations between Russia and the U.S. appeared to have entered yet another phase of crisis, following Trump’s cancellation of the meeting with Vladimir Putin in Budapest that he himself had previously announced. If Axios’s information is correct, it becomes clear that all the contradictions between Washington and Moscow are tactical in nature, while at the strategic level, both sides are committed to aligning their positions.

Given that Russia, overall, possesses far greater resources to conduct the war than Ukraine, it can be assumed that Trump’s peace plan largely takes Moscow’s interests into account. We have previously noted that it is very important for Vladimir Putin to present the Russian public with at least some territorially consolidated gain. From this perspective, it can be assumed that the Trump plan envisions Kyiv ceding the territories of the Donetsk region currently under its control. 

At the same time, a possible compromise from Moscow, compared with its earlier position, could be that this time it would not demand a legal formalisation of Ukraine’s renunciation of Donbas, but would be satisfied with the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces to the region’s internal administrative boundaries and a freezing of the conflict along that line.

It is also possible that discussions of the plan will be prolonged to allow Russia to achieve a fundamental turning point in the war and reach the internal borders of Donbas.

It is important to take note of the context in which these events are unfolding. Along the entire front, from Kharkiv region to Kherson, Russia is intensifying military pressure, seeking to provoke multiple local crises, deprive the Ukrainian Armed Forces of the ability to redeploy reserves from one sector of the front to another, and thereby ensure breakthroughs by Russian forces at the most strategically important points — in the areas of Kupiansk, Pokrovsk, and Myrnohrad.

On the other hand, the corruption scandal initiated by specialised agencies close to the U.S. appears to be pressure on Kyiv coming directly from Washington. Opposition parties are calling for the complete resignation of the government, which could deliver a serious internal blow to the Ukrainian president. In this situation, Zelenskyy urgently needs a small but effective victory. Given that there are no indications on the front for a turning point in Ukraine’s favour, it can be assumed that Kyiv is preparing an asymmetric operation deep within Russian territory.

On the other hand, any bold raid by the Ukrainian Armed Forces or the Main Intelligence Directorate on Russian territory risks giving Moscow free rein in choosing the arsenal for its next attack on Ukraine. It is also worth noting Russia’s already severe strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, which, in the harsh winter conditions, threaten to trigger a major humanitarian crisis. If, on top of that, another corruption scandal suddenly erupts in the country, it could lead to widespread internal protests.

It gives the impression that Moscow and Washington are jointly and deliberately preparing the ground for the removal of Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Scenarios in which the incumbent president himself would sign Trump’s peace plan seem unlikely, since his political legitimacy depends entirely on his capacity to resist militarily. The cessation of the war under any circumstances would mean Zelenskyy’s departure, at least because the Ukrainian people would want to try a different leader if he fails to deliver victory.

Nevertheless, Zelenskyy has no choice but to try. Today, he arrived in Türkiye to “accelerate negotiations” with Russia and to discuss a prisoner exchange, which has not taken place since October. Tomorrow, the Ukrainian president is expected to meet in Kyiv with high-ranking U.S. military officials. Very soon, it seems, we may learn of significant developments in the Ukrainian settlement process.