US, Iran exchange strikes as Israel remains on sidelines War on low flame

In recent days, the United States has intensified its strikes on the south of the Islamic Republic and the coastal area of the Strait of Hormuz in response to repeated attacks by Iran on commercial vessels.

The targets of the US attacks are mainly military facilities, but civilian infrastructure is also being hit. This demonstrates that the episode involving the memorandum was not a serious development: Tehran is unwilling to make concessions, because any compromise would be tantamount to capitulation for Iran’s current leadership — something the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which has effectively usurped power in the country, cannot allow. 

The Americans, for their part, will under no circumstances agree to hand control of the Strait of Hormuz to Iran or to bar International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors from the Islamic Republic’s nuclear facilities.

At the same time, although the military campaign has de facto resumed, it is too early to call it the beginning of a new full-scale war. It more closely resembles an operation to shape the battlefield and an attempt to force Tehran to make concessions. What makes the current situation particularly notable is that Israel is not taking part in the hostilities.

The United States is striking Iran, while Iran is targeting Arab countries and U.S. bases in the region, so far leaving Israel out of the conflict. However, the risk of Iranian strikes on Israeli territory remains. That risk could increase if the United States attacks Iran’s energy infrastructure, a possibility President Donald Trump recently raised.

However, it seems likely that Washington will continue to keep the current escalation simmering, intensifying it through a naval blockade of Iranian ports. How long this situation will last is difficult to say, but one thing is clear for now: a long-term diplomatic settlement to the conflict appears impossible, and a new active phase of the war between the U.S.-Israeli bloc and Iran, aimed at changing Iran’s political course, is only a matter of time.

By Riad Hamidov